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Tobin Tax

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Submitted By ninalisa
Words 24467
Pages 98
The Tobin Tax And Its Effects
On The Foreign Exchange Market

International Business Thesis
By Mark Hansen 290587-1563
& Nina Johansen 140988-1838
Advisor Niels Blomgren-Hansen
17.05.2010

Executive summary

In this thesis a financial transaction tax in the form of the Tobin Tax is examined as a means to reduce volatility on the foreign exchange market. James Tobin original proposal is presented followed by his 1995 paper and Frankel’s contribution to the discussion. Frankel gives merit to Tobin’s line of reasoning on reducing stability by dividing investors into short-term speculators and long-term fundamentalists and defines the former’s activities as destabilizing and the latter as stabilizing. However, we find this segmentation problematic since it is not possible to divide the market participants into these categories in the foreign exchange market. Many of the short-term investors do not necessarily speculate or disregard fundamentals, but rather try to avoid risk. Accordingly, many of the short term market movements are instead stabilizing. Therefore, the Tobin Tax would not only deter the destabilizing transactions, but also the stabilizing ones.
If the foreign exchange market is in fact excessively volatile as Tobin argues then the tax could possibly have a positive effect by throwing sand in the wheels and thereby slowing short-term reactions. Our findings suggest that the foreign exchange market is in fact highly volatile, but we find no convincing evidence concluding this volatility to be excessive. More importantly our findings suggest that imposing this tax would be at least as likely to actually increase volatility as it would, decrease it, since the tax is likely to deter many stabilizing factors and risk driving liquidity out of the market. A special case of volatility and large fluctuations in exchange rates are speculative attacks

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