The Projected Main Mode Travel Share Trend for Gauteng 2040

Daniel Pillay 201060830
LeLani Le Fleur 200623816
Hlalanathi Sishi 920045519
Sifiso Mhlongo 200514389

This assignment is submitted in partial fulfillment Of the requirements of the Bachelor of Technology Degree in Transport Management

In the

Department of Transport and Supply Chain Management

Faculty of Management

At the University of Johannesburg

April 2014
Table of Contents Introduction 3 Background 3 Research Statement 4 Body 5 Car/Driver Passenger 5 Mini Bus/Taxis 7 Walk 8 Bicycle 9 Train 12 Bus 16 Conclusion 19 Bibliography 20

1. Introduction
Background Information
The South African economy has seen phenomenal changes in the economic environment that it operates in and the Government has taken the initiative to align the country to conform to international standards to become a competitive and relevant role player in the global markets. In all economies, transportation infrastructure and modes is the vital key to the progress of any country. South Africa comprises of 9 different provinces of which Gauteng is the dominant generator of all South African GDP. Labor is the main source required for the creation of GDP and in that context transportation to and from their place of residence to the place of employment is critical. This research addresses to modal share trends that would likely to take place based on the statistical information extract from the (Vadi, 2013), within a defined period of 30 years from 2011.

The topic of discussion revolves around the Figure 1 extract from the journal, (Vadi, 2013) by which a calculated predication of expected of modal share in the main modes in the next 30 years.
TABLE 8: MAIN MODE OF TRAVEL TO WORK IN JOHANNESBURG Mode | 2002 Gauteng Household Travel Survey | 2011 Gauteng Quality of Life Survey | Car driver/passenger | 42% | 42% | Minibus-taxi | 35% | 42% | Walk | 9% | 7% | Train | 8% | 5% | Bus | 4% | 4% | Bicycle | <1% | <1% | Other | 2% | <1% | Total | 100% | 100% |
Table [ 1 ]: Main Modes of Travel to Work

The main source of this research was derived from the Journal published by (Vadi, 2013), as this gives factual information on the previous, current and future predications on the transport systems. The range of data that was looked at is from 2002 to 2011 which indicated the response or direction in which Government has taken to get the desired state of transport currently. The research will highlight the individual modes which will be followed by the developments and shortcomings as well as the future predictions based on local and international implementations. Systems from developed nations were closely researched for solutions as these countries operate a highly successful transport network and adopting working systems makes logical sense. No re-invention of the wheel would be necessary?

Research Statement
The Main Mode of Travel Share Trend for Gauteng in the next 30 years. This is summary of the required research that would need to be investigated and derived from information provided.

Outline of Research
The formal structure of the required output is broken up into four categories: * The individual mode per row on the given table. * The analysis of the trend portrayed in the table from 2002-2011. * The shortfalls or developments that influenced the trend. * The future predictions of the trend based on models currently researched.
Each mode of transport to work will be looked at in close correlation with the population demographics and the requirements thereof.

Body
The commencement of the research will start off with the population research by which the information on the table was given. This is done to give a fair indication on the projected population that would probably need to be looked at when future transport predictions are made.
The projected population would likely to be between 6 to 8 million, (Vadi, 2013), which would provide the broad parameters of decisions to made. The other supporting statistics based on population that would affect the future choices of modes of transport for work are place of residence, unemployment, average household income and emissions per capita. This information would form the criteria of the policy maker decisions namely the Government, to implement action plans to support required modes.

A. Car Driver/Passenger
The first mode to be discussed is the car driver/passenger field. This showed an initial percentage of 42% and remains unchanged at 42% in 2011. What has influenced this?
The common practice in most developing countries was the conception to make the life of motorists easier on the roads. Attention was focused on accommodating more traffic on roads rather to decrease the volumes? Gauteng was no different in the previous years before the long term strategies came into being. There were no major shift changes in the modes of transport? Since then the introduction of the major improvements that would be highlighted, citizens have made major transportation decisions resulting in modal shifts which resulted in the reduction of the use of cars for travel to work?

The main contributor to this shift in modal preference could be attributed to the increased demand on public transport. According to the GRCO survey of 2011, (Vadi, 2013), the percentage of motorized trips decreased from 53% to 37%. Although stated that this was done at any time of the day, the huge percentage shift in modes was the result of improved public transport systems. The BRT systems, taxi recapitalization and the Gautrain had all played a major role in reducing the numbers of cars on the road?

Another factor that can be seen as a deterrent in using the private motor vehicles to commute to work is the fuel price. The figure below is graphical illustration of the fuel price since 2001. There was a 233% increase in fuel price between the year of 2009 to 2014. This type of increase can easily be absorbed by the general public and commuting decisions soon change to save valuable money.

Figure 2: Statistical Graph of fuel Price from 2001 to 2012
Urban tolling on the road will definitely affect the number of vehicles utilizing our national freeways? Congestion has already been experienced on all non-tolled roads. Although many users have not yet registered, the implication and the idea of e-tolls are necessary to reduce traffic volumes on the national roads. This frustration of sitting in traffic or paying for passes would undoubtedly reduce the percentage of cars on the road. E-tolling is evident in developed countries to reduce private usage of cars and increase the use of public transportation. The idea of e-tolls is to ensure that public transport remains the economical choice?
The increasing congestion of the Gauteng roads, E-tolling and rising fuel costs will be the deciding factor on choices made by commuters to work? According to (Van der Merwe, 2013, p. 122), R5.5 billion per annum will be spent by government in public transportations systems and this will definitely reduce the volume of cars on the Gauteng roads. To conclude the issue, the trend would definitely decrease by a significant percentage in the next 30 years.

Mini-Buses/Taxis
The next mode to be discussed is the min-bus/taxi industry. There was a 7% positive shift from 2002 to 2011 which say a growth of 0.78% per annum growth. According to (Van der Merwe, 2013, p. 12), the population growth in the Gauteng province grew from 9.18% in 2001 to 12.27% in 2011. This alone accounts for a 3% growth in the demand for transport which the taxi industry has capacity to supply.
The perfect starting point for factor influencing the positive trend in the industry would be the Taxi Recapitalization project that commenced in 1998. Taxi owners received a recap amount of R50 000 when they surrendered old vehicles and replaced them with newer and safer models. The predominantly Toyota Quantum is the most common taxi that emerged from the new safer models. This sparked confidence in commuters to sit in vehicles that are regulated by the government to protect them. This had a huge impact on the number of commuters choosing this mode of transport. The project however has since not yet reached its intended quota of ridding the industry of old unsafe vehicles.
The other factor that needs to be considered is that the 4% increase in population scattered the demographics of people requiring transport. The taxi industry is one such mode that can provide such service in areas when busses cannot. There are a total of 60 000 taxis (Van der Merwe, 2013, p. 56), that operate in the Gauteng area which would imply that it is a predominant figure in road passenger transport. The rapid population growth equates to higher transport demand that can be addressed with the taxi industry.

The frequency, accessibility and the speed of this mode of transport had created the positive trend for the mode in the past 9 years. The route networks for these as displayed in (Vadi, 2013, pp. P11, figure 5), are far more competitive compared to the bus or rail network systems. This critical criteria is the driving force behind the decisions of commuters making this their preferred mode of transport?

The predictions on the 30 year trend however will definitely be lesser that the 42% in 2011. The Reya Viya, BRT and the IRPTN bus system which first commenced in 2010 and the second phase in 2013 saw the decrease in the numbers of taxis. This system introduced business opportunities for taxi operators and operator grouping to get involved in large government contracts of being part of the passenger service. As shareholders would mean that they would provide services to the public using larger sized vehicles. The advantages of such a systems as highlighted in (Van der Merwe, 2013, p. 57), were gaining operational subsidies, improvement of feasibility and accessibility, commercialized incentives, improved safety and quality and finally advancing the industry into bigger business. After negotiations, it was accepted and now the Reya Viya is a reality in Gauteng which has removed a large number of taxis on the roads. The trend will reduce even further with additional developments in the bus industry?

Walk
Walking forms part of non-motorised (NMT) transport that does not rely on engines and or motors for movement. Like other forms of NMT, walking is generally recognized as a valuable component of the system due to benefits it holds such as increased access, improved health and quality of life, environmental benefits and increased activity and vibrancy in the street environment.

Walking is the mode used for 31% of all trips made in the morning peak period taking into account that car accounts for 37% and minibus-taxis for 23%, (ARUP, 2007). The average walk trip was 23 minutes with 25 minutes for work trips and 22 minutes for walking to schools and other educational institutions. Walking can be rated as the second main mode of transport in after the car in Gauteng. The walking distance recognized by international standards is between 500m to 1000m whilst daily walking distances in South Africa is much more that are approximately 2 kilometers, (ARUP, 2007).

The report, (Central Strategy Unit, 2006), seeks “Greater user preference for more environmentally sustainable public transport and non-motorised transport choices”. NMT has also been identified as a priority on provincial and national agendas in ‘A Strategic Agenda for Transport in Gauteng’ (2005) and in the Draft Non-Motorised Transport Policy (2008)

The City of Johannesburg as a developing global city has plans and strategies to improve transportation that will create an opportunity and a conducive environment that will increase the percentage of walkers by 6% in 30 years.

Bicycle

According to the, (Radebe, 2005), about 37.7% of all trips during the morning peak period in Gauteng are walking trips. Cycle trips represent less than 1% (about 0.6%) of the morning peak trips in the province. Walking is the predominant mode of transport and comprises 1.9 million person trips in the morning peak period (06.00 – 09.00) whilst cycling only comprises about 30 000 person trips in the morning peak periods. Given that level of pedestrian and cycling combined represent close to 40% of all person trips in Gauteng, due regard should be paid to the planning of infrastructure and supporting facilities for these modes.

Cycling as part of non-motorised transport together with other public transport modes plays an important role in providing a sustainable alternative to the private motor vehicle, in reducing overall carbon emissions, improving air quality, reducing congestion and moving towards meeting the targets set by the Kyoto agreement. The contributing factor is the fact that climate change and environmental sustainability are rapidly becoming priorities on the global agenda.

In addition NMT and cycling in particular plays an important role towards achieving Pro-active absorption of the poor, Settlement Restructuring and Facilitated social mobility which are objectives of the Growth Development Strategy. This will facilitate easy access to the nearest public transport for those individuals who are based in outlying areas at a rate almost three times faster than walking.

Benefits of Cycling * Access to the opportunities in the city via basic low cost mobility and independent movement are benefits which are especially relevant to marginalized communities. * Reduced carbon emissions thus resulting in improved air quality. * Reduced congestion on the roads. * Increased access as the commuting space is smaller compared to vehicles. * It improves the commuter’s health and pro-longed life. * It shortens trips as this method is faster that walking.
However this mode is negligible due to the following obstacles based on the report, (City of Johannesburg, 2009).

* Road Safety
Cycling is a dangerous activity in South Africa mainly due to the fact that cyclists are not very visible on the road and are not treated as equals by motorist with respect to access to space. In addition lack or poor quality of cycle tracks is also a major challenges to cyclists which in many instances forces them to compete with motorists for space in the road.

40% of all road fatalities in South Africa involve pedestrians. Most pedestrian accidents (about 65%) happen when pedestrian crosses a road, while about 15% occur when they walk in the road, 6 and 10% when they walk on the verge.

* Security

Lack of cycle storage facilities in workplaces and majority destination points discourage people from cycling due to theft of bicycles. In addition lack of lighting and cctv cameras in most areas increase security risk.

* Distance & Topography * It is imperative to note the impact and effect caused by distance and topography of the area to be travelled by bicycle. Ideally the distances to destination points has to be shorter and with limited gradients for such trips to be convenient.

In addition the report, (ARUP, 2007) indicates that most bicycling trips are less than 5km in length. It also highlights that reasonable trip distances and times would be 30mins to jobs/school and 10-15mins to shops and services by walking or cycling. Most destinations should be within 10km however due to low density urban form of the city of Johannesburg, many destinations in the City are in excess of 10km from the point of origin.

* Climate
Weather conditions although not significant has an impact on people’s transport choices, specifically when it relate to cycling. It may be difficult and dangerous to cycle in adverse weather conditions. Fortunately, weather in Johannesburg is one of the most favourable to walk and cycle compared to other cities in the world. This is based on international research.

It is important that future non-motorised plans consider those seldom summer thunderstorms especially in the Highveld. Shelters should be built in the cycle routes to cater for this.

* Supporting Infrastructure and Facilities

Facilities such as cycle storage, change rooms and lockers which are currently not made available by most employers and schools will go a long way to persuade commuters to switch to bicycles. Prioritizing designated cycle lanes on the roads will also have a positive impact on shifting commuters to cycling.

* Status and Convenience

The perception that cycling and walking is meant for recreation purposes, poor people and excludes women will have to change in order to persuade commuters into cycling. Programmes such as Shova kalula in South Africa will go a long way in creating awareness on the benefits of cycling.

* Competition for Space

Currently motor vehicles are given priority in terms of the available road space with a very limited width of pavement given to the pedestrians whom they share with cyclists and informal street traders. In addition to this is unavailability of road reserve to cater for additional lanes which must be dedicated to cyclists and walkers.

It is envisaged that by addressing the abovementioned obstacles the public transport improvement projects such as BRT, Gautrain, SARCC Metro Rail, Major Taxi Ranks together with densification along these routes will provide an opportunity for growth in bicycle trips and thus shortening travel time by commuters.

In addition, it is of the utmost importance that Non-Motorised Transport is integrated to support these strategic transport projects in particular at the stations and ranks.

The City of Johannesburg has developed strategies considered to be necessary interventions to address obstacles facing Non-Motorized Transport. Implementation of these strategies will ensure successful implementation of NMT.

Train
According to, (Central Strategy Unit, 2006), over many years the rail infrastructure has been deteriorating. There was an attempt to revive this mode of transport based on a plan to upgrade the system which was developed in 2006. However nothing much of this plan materialized.

Upgrade of heavy rail corridors in Joburg

In December 2012, the Passenger Rail Agency of South Africa (PRASA) developed and completed a new National Strategic Plan which includes Gauteng Regional Strategic Plan. The objectives of the plan is to guide all future investment in the rail system up to year 2050 which will include upgrading the existing rail network in high-volume corridors so that it can play a key role in transit-oriented development in the city and act as a quality mass carrier.

As part of this plan, (Vadi, 2013), new rolling stock will be purchased to replace the current fleet which is outdated the following will be done,

* The new fleet will have more seating space on long routes, and more standing capacity on short routes which is meant to deal with overcrowding. The number of multiple-unit train sets operating in Gauteng will increase from the current 124 to 229. This will be implemented in a phased-in approach over a period of time and will be driven by growth in demand.

Prasa’s new fleet model picture (Engineering news website)

* The off-peak market will be developed by increasing services, and using discounts so as to increase ridership and reduce the extreme peak travel figures. * New security facilities will be introduced at stations * A regular-interval, standard-hour timetable will be introduced. * Frequency and speed on some sections will be increased. * Modal interchange facilities at key stations to increase catchment area will be improved. * Ticketing and access-control system will be upgraded. * Upgrading infrastructure to improve network and asset resilience and support timetable and capacity enhancements, including line-speed improvements; such as construction of additional bay platforms including at Naledi, additional tracks on certain corridors – such as four-tracking between Knights and Germiston to alleviate a bottleneck on the main line, and capacity/junction and line-speed improvements at various locations. * Introducing new routes, including extending services from Pretoria, Leralla and Springs beyond Park Station, where they currently terminate, to Dube, Naledi and the Krugersdorp line. * Construction of new stations, including one at Orange Farm (between the Stretford and Midannadale stations.

PRASA has recently awarded a R50 Billion tender to various companies towards the purchasing of new rolling stock.

Gautrain

Gautrain is a morden, high-speed rail connection linking Johannesburg, Tswane and OR Tambo International Airport (ORTIA). The objective of the Gautrain was to provide a quality intercity and airport service to attract private car users to public transport as well as being a transit-oriented development intervention to crowd investment and growth around the Gautrain station nodes. It was implemented in three stages namely; Sandton-ORTIA line and the commuter line from Sandton to Rhodesfield (June 2010), the Rosebank-Pretoria service (August 2011), and the Park Station-Rosebank service (June 2012). It is an 80km network comprising two lines: a link between Hatfield, Tshwane and Park Station, Johannesburg and a link between ORTIA and Sandton. Of the ten stations, five are in Joburg: Johannesburg Park, Rosebank, Sandton, Marlboro and Midrand.

Access to and from stations is through park and ride (with 10 000 parking bays provided at stations altogether) and via a feeder/distribution network of up-market buses serving a 5km radius of each station, operated by the Bombela Concession Company. Gautrain fares are significantly higher than other public transport modes. It transports 48 000 passengers on its trains on an average weekday and 14 000 to 16 000 per day on weekends (March 2013 figures). Average weekday ridership of the feeder buses is about 19 000. About 30% of the train passengers use the buses. Of the bus passengers, 93% transfer to or from the Gautrain. On an average weekday, about 8 000 cars enter the park and ride facilities (there are 10 000 available bays). Parking at Pretoria, Centurion, Midrand and Rhodesfield stations is fully utilized. (Vadi, 2013)

A study was in 2005 and 2009 to facilitate the integration of the Gautrain with other modes, which resulted in some flexibility being built into the contract with the Concessionaire, with respect to the provision of feeder and distribution services to stations and prevented a duplication of services between Rea Vaya BRT and Gautrain buses. Various Rea Vaya Phase 1B routes have also been designed to include the Gautrain Park Station, where there is also a Rea Vaya station (in Rissik Street). However, there remains very limited integration due to significant difference in fares as well as the rigid nature of the public private partnership signed between the Gauteng Province and the Bombela Concession Company. (City of Johannesburg, 2012)

Gautrain customer satisfaction surveys, done on a monthly basis, reveal high levels of satisfaction (between 9.1 and 9.5 out of 10 in March 2013) on all criteria, which are: value for money, service staff, information provision, ease of use and speed, cleanliness, comfort, safety/security, train punctuality and bus punctuality. Train availability (in terms of the schedule) averaged 99.65% in the year to end January 2013, while average train punctuality was 98,6% in the same period. (Vadi, 2013)

Gautrain has proven to be a great success and has taken a sizable number of commuters from other modes and in particular car owners.
Through this planned heavy rail upgrades, the extension of gautrain routes together with public transport integration plans in Johannesburg, it is envisaged that the number of commuters using rail transport will increase significantly by at least 4% in the next 30 years.

Bus
Busses perform an important function in the transportation of commuters in and around the Johannesburg. This is due to the fact that it has high occupancy and has more frequent trips. There are three main bus systems used in Johannesburg namely Metro Bus, Private Operators and Bus Rapid Transit (BRT).
Metro Bus

Figure 2 : “Picture from Metro bus website"
Metrobus was set up as a company in the year 2000, it is wholly owned by the City of Johannesburg. It is also the second largest municipal bus operator in South Africa, with 532 buses covering 80 scheduled routes and 130 school routes. Metrobus transports about 90 000 passengers daily fulfilling its primary task - transporting commuters using a scheduled bus service. An important aspect of the Metrobus is that it has six buses within its fleet which are designed to cater for people with disability. These buses ensure that people with disabilities are transported safely from their homes to their workplaces. Metrobus will continue to be a viable public transport mode for commuters in the Johannesburg in the future.

Private operators

Private sector plays an important role in public transport, however it is important for government to ensure that public transport is available to the poor people and for that reason private bus operators are subsidized by government.
Government is the process of rationalizing subsidized contracts. The main change has been that the provincial bus contracts have been converted into short-term, kilometer-based contracts. The partnership between government and private operators is important in increasing the number of commuters in the bus transport mode. (Vadi, 2013, p. 35)

Reya Vaya Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) System
Picture (ReaVaya official website)
This system was conceptualized from the report, (Van der Merwe, 2013) which was meant to shift from the historic emphasis on improving mobility for cars, to an emphasis on improving mobility and accessibility for people, chiefly through improvements to the public transport system. The major recommendation of the ITP was that the City creates a Strategic Public Transport Network (SPTN) which was both a network and also a concept of operation. As a network plan, the overall aim of the SPTN was to identify the major public transport connections that needed to be made. This was designed with the aim of supporting a compact, multi-nodal city form, by providing a legible permanent public transport ‘grid’ of focused high-frequency public transport routes connecting key high-density nodes and also dense residential areas. Once on the grid, all the important destinations could be accessed through the public transport system because of the overall continuity of connections. It was designed as a lattice of public transport routes, 325km in total length, connecting the 45 or so development nodes in the City to each other along major mobility spines.
A decision was taken by the city in November 2006 after scoping study (Rea Vaya BRT Scoping Study, November 2006) that investigated where passenger demand warranted full BRT and bench marking tours to Latin American BRT.
The implementation was going to be in phases. Currently Phase 1A and Phase 1B of Rea Vaya have been built to date comprising the following infrastructure:

COMPLETED REA VAYA INFRASTRUCTURE (PHASE 1A AND 1B): APRIL 2013

Infrastructure built by April 2013 | Phase 1A (in full operation since Feb 2011) | Phase 1B (due to open in second half of 2013) | Bi-directional busways (km) | 22 | 14.8 | Single-lane busways (km) | 8.68 | 1.9 | Bi-direction busways in transit-only roads in operation (km) | 4.15 | 0 | Mixed traffic lanes used by complementary buses (km) | 25.6 | 15.6 | Mixed traffic lanes used by feeder buses (km) | 29.1 | 36.6 | Stations | 31 | 17 | Rea Vaya Bus Depot at Dobsonville | Rea Vaya Control Centre and ITS systems |

The Rea Vaya Phase 1C service will require 69 articulated buses and 171 standard buses (over and above the 277 buses operating in Phase 1A and 1B), a total of 240 extra Rea Vaya buses in the system, and will run along the identified routes, (Vadi, 2013).
Conclusion
(Speech presented by City Johannesburg Executive Mayor at the launch of the 2013/16 Integrated Development Plan (IDP) and budget outreach in Kliptown, Soweto on Tuesday, 9 April.( City of Johannesburg official website)

By 2040, Johannesburg will be pedestrian and public transport oriented. This entails ensuring both a shift in mind-set and a shift in practice, encouraged by viable and efficient public transport systems and safe walking spaces. Most of Johannesburgs’ residents, by 2040, will shift to an efficient, reliable, affordable and accessible mass public transport system – and a parallel, inter-connected pedestrian system. Interventions will aim to: * Ensure increased use and financial viability of Rea Vaya. * Deliver valuable, integrated and aligned transport, by developing sound plans that improve mobility and access for all. The City is reviewing and updating its Integrated Transport Plan, which will be refined and finalised alongside the 2040 Spatial Plan, 2040 Sustainable Human Settlements Plan, and national visions of space and mobility. * Improve pedestrian mobility by focusing on inner city distribution. * Work with other spheres of government, while also taking into account opportunities for public and private collaboration. Johannesburg is not an island, but is part of the Gauteng City Region, with daily transport flows that extend beyond municipal boundaries. The City must align its transport planning with Gauteng provincial plans and those of surrounding municipalities. Johannesburg also supports the Durban-Gauteng Freight Corridor 2050 Vision, which includes strategically located logistics hubs and terminals and is underpinned by supportive local area land use plans. * Invest in research and development, with an emphasis on using data and tracking as the basis for sound transport planning and implementation.
Based on the above statement and the detailed research conducted by the team, it is envisaged that the modal share of travel to work for different means of transport in Johannesburg in 2041 will be as follows:

TABLE 8: MAIN MODE OF TRAVEL TO WORK IN JOHANNESBURG Mode | 2002 | 2011 | 2041 | Car driver/passenger | 42% | 42% | 36% | Minibus-taxi | 35% | 42% | 30% | Walk | 9% | 7% | 10% | Train | 8% | 5% | 13% | Bus | 4% | 4% | 10% | Bicycle | <1% | <1% | 1% | Other | 2% | <1% | <1% | Total | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Table 1: Main Modes of Travel to Work

Bibliography
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