Awareness | | purchase assumption | | | | Target HH | 58,800,000 | units per purchase | 1.25 | | | Cucina Fresca Cust- med pen | 11% | average spend | $ 12.38 12.38 | | | Cust Awareness | 50% | repeat purchase | 2 | | | Non Cust Awareness | 12% | | | | | AVC | 40% | repeat transaction amount | 1.25 | | | Cucina Fresca Cust - low pen | 5% | Repeat rate by scen. | | | | Cucina Fresca Cust - high pen | 15% | Mediocre | 21% | | | | | Average | 37% | | | total awareness med pen | 16% | Excellent | 49% | | | total awareness low pen | 13.2% | | | | | total awareness high pen | 18.18% | Repeat vol by scen .scenario | med 11% | low 5% | high 15% | trial rate | 27.3% | Mediocre | 545,428 | 444,298 | 612,849 | mark adjust trial rate med | 1.77% | Average | 960,993 | 782,811 | 1,079,781 | mark adjust trial rate low | 1.44% | Excellent | 1,272,666 | 1,036,696 | 1,429,980 | mark adjust trial rate high | 1.99% | | | | | Trial HH med | 1,038,911 | | | | | Trial HH low (5%) | 846,282.53 | | | | | Trial HH high (15%) | 1,167,330.53 | | | | |

1.A Pizza Forecast (Volume and Revenue) Based on scenario and penetration rate Price $12.38 | Excellent product | Average product | Penetration | Med 11% | Low 5% | high 15% | Med 11% | Low 5% | high 15% | Trial Vol (HH) | 1,038,911 | 846,282.53 | 1,167,330.53 | 1,038,911 | 846,282.53 | 1,167,330.53 | Repeat purchase vol | 1,272,666 | 1,036,696 | 1,429,980 | 960,993 | 782,811 | 1,079,781 | Total est. vol | 2,311,578 | 1,882,979 | 2,597,310 | 1,999,904 | 1,629,094 | 2,247,111 | Revenue estimate (retail) | $28,617,331.99 | $23,311,275.38 | $32,154,703.06 | $24,758,815.31 | $20,168,182.07 | $27,819,237.48 | Wholesale | $18,601,265.79 | $15,152,328.99 | $20,900,556.99 | $16,093,229.95 | $13,109,318.34 | $18,082,504.36 | | | | | | | | Price $12.38 | Mediocre product | | | | Penetration | Med 11% | Low 5% | high 15% | | | | Trial Vol (HH) | 1,038,911 | 846,282.53 | 1,167,330.53 | | | | Repeat purch. vol | 545,428 | 444,298 | 612,849 | | | | Total est. vol | 1,584,340 | 1,290,581 | 1,780,179 | | | | Revenue estimate (retail) | $19,614,126.4 | $15,977,390.99 | $22,038,616.70 | | | | Wholesale | $12,749,182.2 | $10,385,304.14 | $14,325,100.86 | | | |

1.B From the forecast above, the wholesale revenue is more than the expected revenue of $12 Million in the excellent and average product scenario, but the mediocre product scenario with a lower forecast and low penetration has revenue less than expected. From this data only, we can suggest TruEarth to launch the pizza product to the market however they need to increase the score of trial purchase intent to reach the expected wholesale volume at the low penetration area.
Based on the data of Exhibit 9, “Pizza Product Likes and Dislikes, After Home Trial”, we can see that the key elements of TruEarth pizza is underperforming, with Overall taste, texture and quality only gaining 10% for purchasing factor reason and crust likeability is only 13%. Both group, favorable and unfavorable to the product suggested a lower price at 26% and 35% respectively; also one major key reason for not buying within the unfavorable group is the high price at 45%. So we conclude that TruEarth should launch the pizza but we also suggest improving the key attributes mainly being price and overall taste.
2. Pizza concept test result compare with the pasta
The Pasta concept test returns a trial rate of 36.3%, however in the case of pizza the trial rate is lower at 27.3%. This suggests that a lower number of respondents are willing to try the pizza compared to pasta. On good price attribute the pizza concept got a lower score (9%) than pasta (18%), meaning that the customers are less willing to pay the selling price of pizza than the pasta. On the TruEarth brand attribute pasta reached 33% while pizza only 24% of total respondents, suggesting that the brand has lower influence on pizza purchase intent. The conclusion from the concept test is that the pizza product concept less appealing than pasta’s.
3. There are already so many options in the market. The competitors are the big players: Kraft and Nestle providing low cost frozen pizzas; Rigazzi, a direct competitor who has a probability of launching a similar pizza product; and major retail chains like Papa John’s and Pizza Hut who are also providing whole wheat and multigrain crust pizzas.
To have a first mover advantage they need to have a high score in one of the competitive advantage such as the perfect crust that Rosie Carlton talked about. From the concept test result the product’s likability is mediocre since the highest total likability score is only 31% (the freshly made and dated). Price factor also shows that the respondents would like the price to be cheaper (27% of total respondent of concept test and 26% of total home trial respondent suggesting price is too expensive). Furthermore the key reason for 45% of the customers to be unfavorable to the product is that they consider it highly priced.
Due to the above reasons we can conclude that there is no first mover advantage in TruEarth’s Pizza products as in the case of pasta product.