the greatest impact on the Middle East region, the United the West - Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen and Bahrain. HISTORICAL, POLITICAL, ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL BACKGROUND As all countries are products of their past history, a review of such as well as respective political, economic and social characteristics may offer insight into the future prospects ofthose states. Indeed, one can easily note that corruption and lack of expression have been endemic in the Arab world despite the aspirations of intellectuals and the efforts of enlightened political figures since the nineteenth century to promote ideas of good governance. Tunisia: Tunisia received its independence fTom France in March 1956, having been a protectorate of that European country since 1881. Lamine Bey (Muhammad al-Amin Bey), the last ruler of the Husseinid Dynasty which began in 1705, was deposed in July 1957 by then-Prime Minister Habib Bourguiba, leader of the Neo-Destour Party, who thereupon became President of a one-party state. The National Assembly, a very weak legislature, recognized Bourguiba's position for life in 1974. Domestically, Bourguiba immediately abolished the Islamic Shari'a courts and introduced Western criminal, civil and commercial codes of law; the former in 1968 and the latter two in 1959. Islamic schools were placed under the control of a unified and centralized educational system emphasizing a secular curriculum and French instruction. According to the CIA World Factbook (the source of current statistics in this article unless otherwise stated)' Tunisia's current adult literacy rate is 74.3 % — 83.4% for men and 65.3% for women. Schooling was only mandatory for boys, but girls' attendance was encouraged. The Personal Status Code of 1956 abolished polygamy - but only affected about 3% of the population^ - required women to consent to marriage and have the right to initiate divorce, and allowed for interfaith marriages, but proved hard to enforce. Family planning was encouraged and birth rates were low for the Arab world; even today the population growth rate is less than 1%. In 1973, abortion was legalized. Veiling was discouraged, but outlawed in schools. The army stayed out of politics and its only mission was to defend the country's borders. Economic planning and socialism were promoted in 1960s; while the government continued to operate state enterprises over the next decade it also encouraged private foreign investment in industry. There was a disparity in development between coastal areas and the interior and in order to counter unemployment Tunisians sought work in France and Libya. During the
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1980s, the agricultural sector was given more attention to reduce the need for food imports and government subsidies, while foreign investment in the service sector and the further development of tourism were encouraged. Today, the annual rate of inflation is 3.7% and only 3.8% of Tunisia's population is below the international poverfy level. As for foreign policy, both under Bourguiba and Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, Tunisia had close ties with the United States and France, especially after the Algerian War of Independence (1954-1962). Bourguiba had periodic squabbles first with Gamal Abdel Nasser of Egypt and later Muammar Qadhafi of Libya; also, while supporting the Palestinian cause in principle, he favored negotiation over confrontation with Israel. From January 1996 until October 2000, Tunisia and Israel operated interest sections in Tel Aviv and Tunis, respectively; as a result of the Second Palestinian Intifada those relations were suspended. (Morocco and Oman did the same.) While American private economic investment in Tunisia has been small, U.S. foreign aid, including military, has been noteworthy — about $1 billion from independence through the 1980s. In November 1987, Ben Ali, who had been interior minister previously and was Prime Minister for about a month, assumed the Presidency of Tunisia from Bourguiba under Article 57 of the Constitution as the latter was judged by seven physicians to be physically and mentally unfit to continue in office. Ben Ali retained his position as Interior Minister, replaced many others in the Cabinet and appointed a number of his friends to positions of power in the army and gendarmerie. Under Ben Ali's authoritarian rule, unemployment and food costs remained problematic and corruption was rampant and very noticeable within his second wife's extended family, the Trabelsis. They were able to take a great deal of their wealth into exile in Saudi Arabia in January 2011. Tunisia's unemployment rate is currently 16% in a very homogenous population of 10.7 million; more than 98% are Arab and Sunni Muslim. The urban population is 67%. As for the labor force, 18.3% are engaged in agriculture, 31.9% in industry, and 49.8% in services. Gross domestic product per capita (average annual income) is $9,500. Egypt: Egypt received limited independence from Great Britain in February 1922, having been a protectorate ofthat European country since 1882, although unofftcially until 1918. The British retained rights to protect foreigners and minorities residing in Egypt, over the securify and usage of communications for Imperial interests, for the defense of Egypt against foreign aggression or interference, and over Sudan. However, Great Britain finally granted Egypt full 57
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independence under the Anglo-Egyptian Treaty of 1936, which allowed for the British to maintain a reduced troop presence to protect the Suez Canal and to assist Egypt in case of war. The British agreed to withdraw their troops from Egypt in 1954, while Sudan was granted its independence in January 1956. Meanwhile, Egyptian army officers overthrew King Farouk in July 1952. Colonel Gamal Abdel Nasser became Prime Minister in February 1954 after removing General Muhammad Naguib from power and subsequently President in June 1956. Nasser nationalized the Suez Canal the following month, while Great Britain, France and Israel invaded Egypt in OctoberNovember 1956 - the European powers in order to regain control ofthe Canal and Israel to end Egypt's blockade ofthe Gulf of Aqaba and to punish Nasser for supporting Palestinian raids from the Gaza Strip. Great Britain and France were forced to evacuate by the United States and the Soviet Union, while Israel did the same after the United Nations guaranteed free passage of its ships through the Gulf of Aqaba, though not the Suez Canal. Nasser's Egypt developed military ties with the Soviet bloc while he became a champion of Arab nationalism and nonalignment. Internally, Nasser adopted socialist economic policies, while Egypt's military involvement in the Yemeni Civil War (1962-1970) in support ofthe new Republic until the 1967 Arab-Israeli War, posed a threat to Saudi Arabia. Nasser died in September 1970 and was succeeded by Anwar Sadat; the latter first tried to retake militarily in 1973 the Arab territories lost in the 1967 War and later succeeded in regaining Egypt's Sinai Peninsula through close political ties with the United States and negotiations and a peace agreement with Israel in 1979, the same year as the Islamic Revolution in Iran. As a result, most countries in the Arab world broke off relations with Egypt and Sadat was assassinated in October 1981. As many of these same countries supported Iraq in its war with Iran, Husni Mubarak, Sadat's successor, was able to reintegrate Egypt into the Arab League; at the same time, Mubarak continued Sadat's pro-U.S. foreign policy and economic liberalism. Meanwhile, the military continued to acquire a great stake in the economy. Justas in Tunisia, autocratic rule-the legislature was weak and there was one dominant political organization the National Democratic Party^ economic problems and rampant corruption helped to contribute to Mubarak's downfall. Yet the U.S. has continued to give Egypt about $2 billion annually for making peace with Israel. At the same time, the Egyptian Presidents were very much opposed to Islamic activism, but secularization has not been as thorough as in Tunisia. As for Egypt's adult literacy rate, it is 71.4% - 83% for men and 59.4% for women. The annual rate of inflation is 13.3%, while 20% of Egypt's population is below the international poverty level. The unemployment rate is currently 12.2% in a population of 83.7 million, about 90% are Sunni Muslim and 9% Coptic Christian. As in Tunisia, Egyptians 58
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sought work in other countiies of the Arab world such as Libya and the Gulf states. The population growth rate is almost 2% with 43.4% living in urban areas. As for the labor force, 32% are engaged in agriculture, 17% in industry and 51 % in services. Gross domestic product per capita is $6,500. Libya: Libya was part of the Ottoman Empire until Italy defeated that empire in a war in 1911-1912 and subsequently conquered all ofthat North African territory. In 1943, during the Second World War, the British and French captured Libya from the Italians and jointly administered it for the next eight years. The issue of Libya's ftiture was turned over to the United Nations in 1949 and in December 1951, the country received its independence under the rule of the Sanusi monarch Idris 1, whose base of power was Cyrenaica, where Benghazi is located . (The other two regions are Tripolitania to the west and Fezzan in the south.) At that time Libya was one of the poorest countries in the world with an average annual per capita income of $35.'' Today, that figure is $14,100. In 1953 and 1954, the British and Americans signed 20 and 16 year agreements, respectively, for military bases on Libyan territory. In 1955, when Turkey, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan and Great Britain established the Baghdad Pact (later known as Cento), Libya's king was sympathetic as were the leaders of Lebanon and Jordan, but none of their countries joined. All of them shared a dislike for Nasser's pan-Arab policies. In 1961, Libya began exporting crude oil and by 1969, it passed Kuwait as the fifth largest exporter in the world. During the latter year, in September, while Idris was vacationing in Turkey, Colonel Muammar Qadhafi and junior military officers inspired by Nasser seized power. Just like the Egyptian leader, Qadhafi emphasized the importance of his country's role in the Arab world, the Islamic world and Africa. His foreign policy was based on pan-Arabism, anti-Zionism and anti-colonialism and caused problems for countries in the Arab world that were too friendly toward the West and not friendly enough to the Palestinians, while domestically he dismantled many institutions as he was opposed to liberal democracy, capitalism, and Soviet Marxism. Qadhafi offered in their place the Third Universal Theory in the short rambling Green Book, which called for numerous people's committees and a form of Islamic socialism. In reality, he maintained a strong control over the country's affairs and was at odds with the conservative ulema. During the Iran-Iraq War of 1980-1988, Qadhafi supported the former country as he did the Islamic revolution there as well as the anti-Apartheid struggle in South Africa. His ordering of the destruction of Pan Am 103 and a French airliner (UTA 772) brought international sanctions during 1992 - the 59
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U.S. had done so in 1986 - that were only lifted after Qadhafi abandoned nuclear, biological and chemical programs in 2003. With the assistance of extensive oil wealth, Libya's adult literacy rate is 82.6% - 92.4% for men and 72% for women. The annual rate of inflation is 6.1% while about one-third of the people live at or below the international poverty level. The unemployment rate is currently 30% for a population of 6.7 million where 97% of the people are either Sunni Muslim Arabs or Berbers. The population growth rate is 2% and 78% of the people live in urban areas. As for the labor force, 17% are engaged in agriculture, 23% in industry and 59% in services. Syria: Following the breakup of the Ottoman Empire, Faisal, one of the sons of Sharif Hussein of Mecca who engaged in the Arab Revolt during the First World War, was crowned King of Syria. His short-lived reign (March-July 1920) came to an end with the establishment of a French mandate over Syria (and Lebanon) under the League of Nations. (He was placed on the throne of Iraq, by the British in 1921, and ruled there until his death in 1933.) In April 1946, Syria became ftjily independent with the withdrawal of the last French troops. Since then, that country has had mostly dictatorial or oligarchic rule either influenced or dominated by the military. The Alawi (an off-shoot of Shi'a Islam) Assad family has been in firm control - with a weak legislature - since February 1971 when the elder Hafiz became President. He had been Defense Minister since 1966 and before that Commander of the Air Force. Assad's political party, the Arab Socialist Baath, had been in power since 1963; two years earlier, Syria had split from United Arab Republic, a short-lived political experiment in pan-Arabism led by Egypt's Nasser that had begun in 1958 in response to Communist influence in Syria. The 1973 Constitution calls education a "right guaranteed by the state" and designed "to bring up a national Arab generation who are socialist and scientific in their manner of thinking."^ In principle, the Ba'ath Party has supported equality for women, but in society gender discrimination continues to exist. Nevertheless, the adult literacy rate for Syria is 79.6% - 83% for men and 73.6% for women. Throughout much of its history and continuing under the Assads, Syria has had close political ties to the Soviet Union (and now Russia) as well as with other Arab nationalist states. At the same time, the Assads have been antagonistic toward political Islam; Hafiz had at least 10.000 civilians killed in Homs alone in 1982 to quash an uprising ofthe Muslim Brotherhood, while Bashar, who assumed power on his father's death in June 2000, has had to contend with jihadist operating within the ranks ofthe Free Syrian Army, which in turn is receiving arms and financing from the Arab Gulf states. Since
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the Islamic revolution in Iran, Syria has developed an alliance with that country, which has upset predominantly Sunni countries in the Arab world. Syria has also exercised a strong political influence in Lebanon since that country's Civil War (1975-1990), where the Shi'a political party Hezbollah, a vocal supporter of the uprisings of the "Arab Spring" has taken a contrary position regarding the excesses of Bashar al-Assad's regime; the latter has introduced some economic liberalism. As for Syria's labor force, 17% are engaged in agriculture, 16% in industry and 67% in services. Many Syrians continue to work abroad and send home remittances as the unemployment rate is 8.1% and 11.9% of the population is below the poverty line. Gross domestic product per capita is $5,100 and the annual rate of inflation is 7%. Syria's population is currently 22.5 million with 90.3% Arab and decent sized minorities of Kurds and Armenians; it is about 74% Sunni Muslim, 12% Alawi, 3% Druze and 10% Christian. Also, the population is 56% urban, but Syria has a negative growth rate of 0.7%.
Yemen:
With the end of the First World War in 1918, Yemen - or what used to be referred to as North Yemen - gained its full independence from the Qttoman Empire. From that time on it was ruled under Imams Yahya Hamid al-Din (1918-1948), Ahmad bin Yahya (1948-1962) and very briefiy Muhammad al-Badr; the latter was overthrown and a republic was established in 1962, which was recognized by the United Nations (and the United States, though Great Britain and France did not until later). Civil war ensued until 1970, but Nasser's Egypt which contributed up to 70,000 troops in support of the Republic, withdrew its forces to fight Israel in the 1967 War. Saudi Arabia was greatest supporter of the royalist rebels. What became known as South Yemen - formerly the Aden Protectorate - did not receive it independence from Great Britain until November 1967 when it was established a Marxist state. The Yemen Arab Republic and South Yemen united on May 22,1990 with the north's leader Ali Abdullah Saleh as President. However, unity has been fleeting with periodic civil wars or uprisings in the south or along the northern border with Saudi Arabia against Shi'a Houthi rebels (of the Zaidi sect to which Yemen's Imams had belonged as well as Saleh) over the years. Unlike most of the Arab world, Yemen sided with Iraq in the Gulf War of 1991 and is the only state on the Arabian Peninsula not included in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), established in 1981. Nevertheless, Yemen has had free parliamentary elections for a lower house with women having the right of suffrage. However, legislation has been controlled by an upper house whose members are
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appointed by the President. Following 9/11, Yemen has received American financial and militafy assistance in cooperating in the fight against al-QaMda. This cooperation has been essential to the West as Yemen commands the entrance to the Red Sea and is located close to Somalia. Just like that neighbor, Yemen is one of the poorest countries in the Arab world with 45.2% of its 24.7 million inhabitants living below the poverty line; also, its adult unemployment rate is 35%. Yemen does have a dwindling oil reserve, but also an annual rate of inflation of 20% and most people are engaged in agriculture and herding, while less than onequarter of the population is in service and industry. Gross domestic product per capita is $2,500 and of Arab League member states only Mauritania and Somalia are lower. There is a sectarian divide of about 53% Sunni, including the current president Abd Rabbuh Mansur al-Hadi who succeeded Saleh in February 2012, and 45% Shi'a. Moreover, Yemen has a very traditional society with a population growth rate of almost 2.6% (making it 26"" in the world). In the Arab world, only Bahrain (2.65%, number 20), the United Arab Emirates, Qatar (number 1 ) and the Gaza Strip have greater rates; however, except for the last territory, all are quite rich states. Finally, Yemen is only 32% urban and the adult literacy rate is 50.2% -- 70.5% for men and 30% for women. Bahrain: The Kingdom of Bahrain has been ruled by the Sunni al-Khalifa family since 1783, after expelling the Iranians who had either exercised direct or indirect control over the territory since 1602. Great Britain established a protectorate over Bahrain in 1880 and granted independence in 1971. Before then, Shah Muhammad Reza Pahlavi's government laid brief claim to the 33island archipelago. Bahrain was the first in the Arabian Peninsula to extract oil in 1933, but its supply is limited; however, gas reserves are much greater and refining is an important industry. Nevertheless, Bahrain has diversified its economy developing into an important banking, transportation and communications center. In 1995, the U.S. Fifth Fleet established its headquarters there. Bahrain's population is 1.2 million; however, only 62.4% ofthat country's inhabitants are Bahraini and about 70% are Shi'a. The foreigners who reside in Bahrain and perform manual laborare mainly Asians, including Muslims, and Arabs from other countries. Given its confined space, 89% ofthe population is urban. Women were given the right to vote in 2002 and there is an elected Parliament, but an upper house, the appointed Shura can veto legislation. Bahrain's adult literacy rate is 86.5% ~ 88.6% for men and 83.6% for women. However, the unemployment rate is 15% and 20.1 % for youth ages 15-24. As to be expected, only 15% ofthe labor force is engaged in agriculture, 62
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while 79% is in industry and 20% in services. Gross domestic product per capita is $27, 300 (number 50 in world and only behind the United Arab Emirates, number 11, and Qatar, number 2, in the Arab world. As a frame of reference the United States is number 12 in the world at $45,100.) On a scale of 1-10 on the anti-corruption advocacy group Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index of 201 l*(with 10 being very clean), Bahrain is 5.1. As for the other countries profiled in this article, Tunisia is 3.8, Egypt is 2.9, Libya is 2.0, Syria is 2.6 and Yemen is 2.1. As aframeof reference, the United States is 24"' in the world at 7.1, just behind Qatar (the highest ranked in the Arab world) at 7.2 and just ahead of France at 7.0. The United Arab Emirates is 6.8, Oman is 4.8, Jordan is 4.5 and Saudi Arabia is 4.4, while all the other Arab states are below Tunisia. Given the pervasiveness of corruption, limits on political expression through the press or weak parliaments, and economic problems, including high rates of employment, especially in the growing teen to 20s age group, it is no wonder,, why the "Arab Spring" developed. In sum, while all the above countries profiled have considerable problems with corruption and long histories of authoritarian rule, they differ in terms of the sectarian compositions of their respective populations, in the influence of secularism, in stages of economic development, and in the amount and/or significance of resources. Let us now look at the key developments of this ongoing movement and what changes taking place might mean for the region, the United States and its allies in the West. DEVELOPMENTS DURING THE «ARAB SPRING" Tunisia: On December 17, 2010, Muhammad Bouazizi, a 26-year old street vendor from Sidi Bouzid, a town in the interior of Tunisia, committed selfimmolation, to protest what he regarded as bureaucratic harassment, from which he died over two \yeeks later. Thus began the so-called Jasmine Revolution. News of this incident and subsequent demonstrations calling for economic and political reform spread through various means including the social media. President Ben Ali responded by offering promises of change, but also had security forces using tear gas and live ammunition against protestors with at least 338 people losing their lives during the uprising.' On January 14, 2011, having lost the support ofthe military, he and his family fled into exile in Saudi Arabia; less than two weeks later, the Egyptian uprising began. Ben, Ali and his wife were fried and convicted in absentia for theft in June 2011 and sentenced to 3 5 years.' The uprising's participants included unemployed youth, 63
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Students, union workers and professionals, but not Islamists as many were either in jail or exile.^ In the midst of instability that followed, thousands of Tunisian refugees fled to the,tiny Mediterranean island of Lampedusa causing Italy to declare a state of humanitarian emergency.'^ It was not until March 3,2011 that interim Prime Minister Beji Caid Essebsi agreed as a result of further protests now including members of the Nahda Islamist party (which had been banned between 1991 and 2011) to conduct parliamentary elections." While political prisoners were released, censorship was lifted, Ben Ali*s Constitutional Democratic Rally party was dissolved and many of its officials dismissed, Tunisia remained under a state of emergency to deal with legitimate security concerns.'^ (These include attacks on police stations and liquor stores by Salafi Muslims which took place in May 2012 prompting Prime Minister Hamadi Jebali of the Nahda party to state that Tunisians have lost patience with those 'Svho believe they are charged by God to purify society.")'^ Those parliamentary elections took place on October 23, 2011 and resulted in the Nahda party winning 89 of the National Constituent Assembly's 217 seats and formed a coalition with center-left Congress for the Republic and Ettakatol (Democratic Forum for Labor and Liberties) parties, which won 29 and 20 seats, respectively. Nahda's founder Rashid alGhannoushi, who spent over twenty years in exile in London, supported the appointment of Jebali, the party's secretary-general (mentioned above), as prime minister and the election of Congress for the Republic's leader, human rights activist Moncef Marzouki, as president by the National Constituent Assembly (NCA) on December 12,2011. Since then, the NCA has been draftinga constitution. The Nahda party has gone on record that it opposes shari'a in the constitution and will not ban alcohol sales or payment o£inte(Ä^tJiuis reassuring Tunisian secularists as well as potential Western investors and tourists.'" It appears to be emulating Turkey's ruling Islamist Justice and Development Party, but also antagonizing Salafis. At the same time, unlike Turkey's leaders, who maintain relations with Israel despite the Mavi Marmara AfFair'^ and are critical of the Jewish state's policies toward the Palestinians, Ghannoushi has ruled out normalization with Israel. In a speech in March 2012, he called Ben Ali "a collaborator with the Zionists" and said that "Tunisians' problem is with Zionism not with Judaism."'* Both his party and President Marzouki have invited Tunisian-bom Jews to return to Tunisia. Nevertheless, despite the emotional connection that the Arab world has with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Tunisia's luxury of geographical distance from Israel and the Palestinian territories ensures that it is not as directly affected politically as is the case with Egypt and Syria.
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Egypt: While Egypt's uprising was inspired by developments in Tunisia and in both countries youths and secularists were át the forefront of protests, unlike Tunisia, especially since the overthrow of Egyptian President Husni Mubarak on February 11,2011, Egypt has been more divided politically as result ofthe fact that Islamists and the military have had an important historical impact in Egyptian politics and that it is the home the Copts, of one ofthe oldest - its origins are in the First Century C.E. - and most sizable Christian communities in the Middle East. While the military's impact in Egypt has been discussed earlier, it should be noted that the Muslim Brotherhood was founded in Ismailia, Egypt in 1928 by Hassan al-Banna, a school teacher who was assassinated in 1949, and has branches or affiliates in a number of countries in the Arab world with Sunni majorities. Because the Muslim Brotherhood engaged in political violence it was banned first in 1948 and again in 1954, but as the organization moderated its behavior it was unofficially tolerated by the Egyptian government since the 1970s — with the exception of their opposition to Sadat's signing of a peace treaty with Israel - and cooperated with legal political parties. Anti-govemment protests began on January 25, 2011, ironically on National Police Day, a relatively new holiday in Egypt honoring a much despised institution and took place all throughout the country, though Cairo received most ofthe press' attention. Members ofthe Muslim Brotherhood subsequently joined those assembled at Tahrir Square. As in Tunisia with Ben Ali's departure from that country, it was the military's refusal to use force and additionally in Egypt, its desire to maintain political and economic power -that pushed Mubarak out of office on February 11,2011. Indeed, Muhammad Hussein Tantawi, leader ofthe Supreme Council ofthe Armed Forces (SCAF) immediately took control and protected its interests. It is estimated by economists that the military controls somewhere between 5 and 40% ofthe Egyptian economy." It remains to be seen how the military will be able to continue holding on to those assets now that a civilian president has been elected. What is certain is that at least 841 people lost their lives during the uprising.'* The hated Emergency Law implemented by Mubarak following the assassination of Anwar Sadat in 1981 was allowed to expire on May 31,2012, but the military retained the right to prosecute civilians in their own tribunals." Egyptians voted in parliamentary elections in three stages between November 28, 2011 and January 11, 2012 for 498 members ofthe People's Assembly; ten more representatives were chosen by the military. The Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party came in first followed by the Salafi Nour Party, winning 235 and 121 seats, respectively. In addition, the moderate
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Islamist Wasat Party won 10 seah, while the largest secular group in the People's Assembly is the New Wafd Party with 38 seats. While the Islamist parties comprise more than 70% of parliament, the prime minister and cabinet continued to be appointed by SCAF's leader until after the presidential election. Meanwhile, the People's Assembly was not able to form a politically acceptable committee to draw up a new constitution. During the May 23-24, 2012 presidential elections, Egyptian voters had a choice between a dozen candidates with the results highlighting the Islamist-niilitary divide and disappointing many of the organizers of the uprising against Mubarak. On June. 16-17, U.S.-educated engineer Muhanimad Mursi, the candidate of the Freedom and Justice Party, who garnered almost 25% of the vote faced off against Ahmad Shaflq, Mubarak's last prime minister and a former Egyptian Air Force commander, who was about a percentage point behind, in a run-off election on June 16-17. Mursi sought to assure secularists that he would not impose shari'a law and promised to respect freedom of expression and women's rights, while Shafiq played on the fears of Copts and others suspicious of the Muslim Brotherhood's intentions?" Just days before that election, SCAF reimposed martial law while Egypt's highest court ordered that parliament be dissolved,^' thus allowing the former to shape Egypt's constitution and take control of the national budget from the office of the presidency, which was won by Mursi." Egypt's political situation seemed more muddled and precarious than ever. Meanwhile, on June 2, 2012, Husni Mubarak and his former interior minister were sentenced to life in prison for complicity in the killing of protestors during the uprising. Ahmad Shafiq praised the verdict as proof that "nobody in Egypt is above being held to account," but most Egyptians were upset with the acquittal of six senior police officials who were also on trial." The former president and his two sons were charged a couple of days earlier with insider trading. For the time being, Egypt continues to maintain chilly relations with Israel, not wanting to jeopardize U.S. financial aid; it has opened its border with the Gaza Strip while Israel was forced to close its embassy in Cairo following an attack by protestors. It should be noted that during a debate in May that Abd al-Moneim Abu al-Futuh, considered to be a moderate Islamist candidate for president, had called Israel an "enemy" of Egypt.^"* Libya: Libya had a weak governmental structure and institutions under Muammar Qadhafi, who maintained power through the distribution of oil wealth and privileges to key supporters and the use of brutality against opponents. On February 15, 2011, demonstrations of political and economic discontentment began in the east in Benghazi, Libya's second largest city, and 66
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spread to other parts ofthe country. That region has a great concentration of Libyan oil resources, but far less government investment than Tripoli and other areas in the west. In addition, the people of Benghazi had not forgotten the massacre in 1996 of 1,200 inmates at Abu Salim prison which served as rallying cause for attorney Fathi Terbil and other opponents ofthe regime. On February 27, Libya's National Transition Council (NTC), chaired by Qadhafi's former Minister of Justice Mustafa Abd al-Jalil, was established in that city. The Libyan dictator's son. Seif al-Islam, blamed the uprising on Islamic radicals and Libyans in exile; he declared that "Libya is made up of tribes and clans and loyalties," that there would be "civil war" and he vowed to "fight until the last man, until the last woman, until the last bullet."^* Indeed, that occurred as security forces reacted with far greater violence than in Tunisia and Egypt and various localities and groups established their own militias, while the Qadhafi regime introduced African mercenaries into the mix. However, while Muammar Qadhafi was killed by rebel forces in his native Sirte on October 20,2011, Seif al-lslam was captured on the run in southern Libya the following month. Tripoli was liberated in late August, thus ending the civil war. Early the next month, Libya's interim Health Minister estimated that at least 30,000 people were killed and 50,000 wounded during the conflict.^* The Libyan opposition was assisted by NATO's Operation Unified Protector that conducted air, land and sea missions designed to enforce an arms embargo, no-fly zone, and to protect civilians from attack between March and October 2011 under U.N. Security Council Resolution 1973. Russia and China abstained, but supported Resolution 1970 a month earlier in February that condemned the Qadhafi regime's actions and instituted a travel ban and asset ñ-eeze on key Libyan officials. Over the years of his rule, the Libyan leader had alienated many leaders in the Arab world and Afi-ica, while the Europeans wanted to protect oil interests; Russia felt that NATO airstrikes had overstepped the mission's mandate, but like China deferred to the wishes ofthe Arab League and African Union." The NTC moved to Tripoli following the civil war and on September 16,2011 its credential were accepted by the United Nations General Assembly. In February 2012, the NTC adopted an electoral law, which prohibits members ofthe military from voting, but apparently an estimated 200,000 well-armed militia members who have been causing periodic security problems such as an attack on Tripoli's airport on June 4, 2012.^' Meanwhile, the Libyan Interior Ministry claims that 32,000 of Qadhafi's 88,000 member police force has returned to work, while another 28,000 are in training. However, the military seems to exist mostly on paper!"' This is especially critical given that parliamentary elections are scheduled for July 7 to select 200 lawmakers to draft a constitution that needs to be approved by popular referendum.^" Also, in April 2012 the NTC proposed a law 67 .
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prohibiting parties based on religion, ethnicity or tribe irritating the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Development Party, established a month earlier, but subsequently backed away from the idea. Syria: Whether it was called that or not, the Syrian situation has resembled a civil war for quite some time. As was the case in Libya, Syria's leadership has continued to blame the uprising on Islamist "terrorists" who are supported by foreign powers. Such is the case, even after almost all countries on the U.N. Human Rights Council condemned the Syrian government on June 1, 2012 following the massacre of more than 100 civilians including many women and children in Houla;^' only Russia, China and Cuba voted against the resolution." This is understandable given that Russia is Syria's biggest arms supplier and has a naval base at Tartus, while China is a major investor in Syria's oil industry. Those two powers also do not trust Western intentions given the experience of Libya. Although there were small protests in Damascus and Aleppo during mid-March 2011, the Syrian uprising began in Daraa, a provincial town located near the Jordanian border, while Syria's capital and largest city, respectively, were relatively quiet until recently. In Daraa, ten school children were arrested for writing "Down with the regime" on a wall, thus igniting further disturbances in which demonstrators demanded the students' release and an end to emergency rule, which had been implemented in 1973. Protestors subsequently attacked government buildings as Syrian security forces responded with gunfire; while the demonstrators were granted the aforementioned concessions, the former later in the month and the latter in April, conditions went from bad to worse as protests spread to other parts of the country and the army increased its presence and violent actions against civilians. Those moves not only caused thousands of deaths, but also sent some 25,000 refugees or more flowing into neighboring countries, especially Turkey," whose patience, along with much ofthe Arab world, the U.S. and its European allies, was wearing*thin by the summer of 2011. !n August, the Western countries were calling for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to resign, while Turkey hosted a conference of leaders of Syrian opposition groups, including many members ofthe exiled Muslim Brotherhood, in Istanbul to form the Syrian National Council (SNC). While SNC's curTent leader, Abdelbaset Sieda, is a Kurdish academic, Kurds are divided.^** The Democratic Union Party (PYD), affiliated with the PKK mentioned below, distrusts Turkey."" There are a number of countries that interact politically with the SNC, but only Libya has conferred it diplomatic recognition." The Turkish government of the Islamist Justice and Development Party, which had 68
Michael B. Bishku/"ls it an Arab Spring or Business as Usual? Recent Changes in the Arab World in Historical Context"
developed excellent relations with Assad during the first decade of the twentyfirst century, was concerned with the possibility of Syria once again providing assistance to the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK) insurgent group, which has been engaged in conflict with Turkey since 1984. In October 2011, Turkey began hosting the Free Syrian Army (FSA), a militia composed initially of deserters from Syria's armed forces. The Syrians have accused Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia - the last is especially disturbed by the Assad regime's close ties with Iran — of providing the FSA financial support used to acquire weapons; while such is the case with the two Arab Gulf states," Turkey emphatically denied these allegations for some time.'* These same countries along with France and the U.S. created in February 2012 the "Friends of Syria" group, now comprised of more than fifty mostly European and Muslim states, to coordinate actions and/or discuss policies such as the application of economic sanctions and travel bans designed to facilitate Assad's removal from power." The Arab League had decided in November 2011 to suspend Syria's membership when Assad had ignored their plan to end the violence in that country. He was supposed to withdraw the Syrian army from cities and towns, allow the press, human rights activists, and the Arab League monitor events in the country, release political prisoners and begin dialogue with the opposition hopefully leading to democratic change."" Former U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan's ceasefire agreement of April 2012, which has allowed for U.N. observers to monitor developments in Syria but because of no mechanism to insure compliance has not brought an end to the violence in that country, contains those provisions. Moreover, it has the support of Russia and China. Yemen: Social scientists and by extension foreign policy-makers have far less knowledge of the affairs of Yemen than any other country in this study. As a traditional society, tribes, community organizations, local governments and religious leaders have varying degrees of infiuence over developments in the provinces."' Since 2009, al-Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula and its affiliate Ansar al-Shari'a have been very active in southern Yemen to the north and east of Aden taking temporary control over large swaths of territory. The U.S. has assisted Yemeni military operations against the rebels with drones. On another front, while the Houthi rebellion lasting six years officially ended in a ceasefire in February 2010, that Shi'a opposition group has reftised to participate in a national dialogue proposed by current Yemeni President Abd Rabbuh Mansur al-Hadi until the U.S. ceases all military operations and political "interference" in Yemen."^ They also deny accusations made by the 69
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Saudis and Americans they are receiving arms, money or training from Al-Hadi, was elected unopposed in a referendum in late February 2012, just a little more than a year after protests began against his predecessor Ali Abdullah Saleh, who attempted to change the constitution in order to rule for life. AlHadi continues to face myriad problems as leader of Yemen, but as he previously avoided the spotlight during seventeen years as vice president, he represents an acceptable alternative to Saleh, who in the atmosphere ofthe "Arab Spring" began to lose a great deal of support despite his family's connections in the military and business. In the words of historian James L. Gelvin: The regime in Yemen depended on the compliance, or at least the quiescence, of influential tribal, political and military leaders whom it bought and balanced ofl^ against one another. As the protest movement broadened its base of support and spread throughout the country, and as the regime's resort to ever-increasing levels of violence provoked further resistance, those leaders smelled blood in the water and began to defect.'" By the end of March 2012, Sanaa was split into two armed camps and a state of emergency was declared. In June, Saleh was injured in a rocket attack on the presidential palace and was evacuated to Saudi Arabia for medical treatment. While he returned to Yemen in September, the following month, the U.N. Security Council passed a resolution condemning the violence and calling for him to turn over power to his vice president; and Yemeni human rights activist Tawakul Karman was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize."* (Karman is a member ofthe umbrella opposition al-islah Islamist Party, which includes the Muslim Brothers.)*** In return for the promise of immunity for his actions against the demonstrators, Saleh consented to a Gulf Cooperation Councilbrokered and U.S.-backed deal to step down in November 2011. Yemen's Ministry of Human Rights estimates that at least 2,000 people were killed (including 120 children) and 22,000 were wounded.*" The whereabouts ofthe former president is uncertain, but al-Hadi has been attempting to reform the military and purge it of Saleh loyalists, some of whom have been causing security problems. Bahrain: Of all the uprisings in the Arab world, the one in Bahrain, outside of its initial manifestations, has seemed to receive the least amount of attention
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Michael B. Bishku/"Is it an Arab Spring or Business as Usual? Recent Changes in the Arab World in Historical Context"
world-wide. Perhaps this is due to its sporadic nature, the fact that few people have died - At-Jazeera claims at least fifty"' - and that the Bahraini government has dubbed the opposition "Iranian lackeys" as most are Shi'a."" The uprising began on February 14,201 land concentrated in Manama's Pearl Square; the protestors emphasized political and judicial reform that would allow greater participation of Shi'a, who claim discrimination in housing and healthcare - the former is subsidized while the latter is free in Bahrain - as well as access to government jobs, but also would bring Sunni citizens in the Kingdom greater political expression. The protestors' demands included the creation of a truly representative consultative council (Shura), an independent judiciary, the release of prisoners of political prisoners and the cessation of torture, and ending the practice of "pol itical naturalization" of foreign Sunnis.'" While there were Sunnis sympathetic to constitutional reform (as long as a Sunni dominance was maintained), businessmen feared that continued demonstrations would hurt the economy of Bahrain, where people pay no taxes, and encourage banking interests - which accounts for 25% of Bahrain's gross domestic product - to move elsewhere." On March 16, 2011, just after the Bahraini government declared martial law, troops and policemen from Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, respectively, came to assist in quashing the uprising. Two days later, the Bahraini army tore down the 300-foot Pearl Monument, on the site of the square by the same name since, in the words of Bahrain's foreign minister, it had become a "bad memory."" Although the state of emergency was lifted in June and the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry, established by King Hamad, ruled in November that security forces acted excessively in crushing the protests, reforms have not taken place. Both the royal family and the opposition are split between hardliners and those who would prefer political dialogue. Demonstrations continue with security forces using tear gas, stun grenades and birdshot, while some protestors have started to use firebombs." Meanwhile, Formula One Grand Prix car racing returned to Bahrain in April 2012 after being cancelled the previous year. Also, the following month, the Obama Adminisfration, concerned with Bahrain's external defense, approved the resumption of sales of such things as pafrol boats and upgrades for airplane engines; however, due to "serious unresolved human rights issues," it will continue to withhold equipment that can be used against protestors." WHAT DOES THE "ARAB SPRING" MEAN FOR THE REGION, THE UNITED STATES AND THE WEST? It is the hope of many both inside and outside the Arab world that the "Arab Spring" will not tum into an "Arab Winter." As of the summer of 2012, 71
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developments in Tunisia took the most promising despite militant actions by Salafis. That country has the benefit of being quite homogenous in ethnic and religious composition, while its population is more literate and less impoverished than Egypt. With stability tourism, a major industry in Tunisia, will increase as will foreign investment; the same can be said for Egypt, which initially made progress in allowing for more freedom of expression, but seems to have witnessed a military coup. Muslim politicians who had been dominant in (the now dissolved) parliament are not trusted by many secularists and minority Copts, while the military also has a credibility problem as to whether it is eventually willing to cede power to civilians. Libya, which has great oil wealth, has the potential to rebuild infrastructure destroyed by the civil war. However, it remains to be seen if its many militias are willing to either put down their arms or integrate with the military and permit for the smooth functioning of representative government. All three countries overthrew their repressive regimes, but further political and economic reform is needed. If the Syrians are going to achieve the freedoms for which many desire, Bashar al-Assad will have to step down. Afterwards, mechanisms need to be in place to insure that the sectarian violence that took place in Iraq following the overthrow of Saddam Hussein will not be repeated in Syria. As for Yemen, despite Ali Abdullah Saleh's resignation, his successor Abd Rabbuh Mansur al-Hadi is going to have to institute many political and economic reforms, with the cooperation of tribal leaders, and attempt to complete what is regarded as an "unfinished revolution." Only by doing so can Yemen have greater unity and be able to deal with poverty that is more prevalent than almost every place in the Arab world. Finally, Bahrain may be affluent, but the problem of discrimination against its Shi'a population needs to be adequately addressed. Otherwise, unrest will continue. Developments in these countries are naturally influenced in varying degrees by outside powers. However, as the best interests ofthe respective indigenous populations is most important, leaders in these countries need to engage in compromise and work together in arriving at equitable solutions to various political, economic and social problems. Regional cooperation and financial and technical assistance from Western and other foreign countries wil 1 obviously be beneficial in this regard. Only time will tell, if recent developments in the Middle East are truly an "Arab Spring," "business as usual," or more likely some type of combination. NOTES 1. 2. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/ (Accessed on April 19, 2012). Cited in Kenneth J. Perkins, Tunisia: Crossroads ofthe Islamic and European Worlds (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1986), p. 124.
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