...The Marketplace of Perceptions Like all revolutions in thought, this one began with anomalies, strange facts, odd observations that the prevailing wisdom could not explain. Casino gamblers, for instance, are willing to keep betting even while expecting to lose. People say they want to save for retirement, eat better, start exercising, quit smoking—and they mean it—but they do no such things. Victims who feel they’ve been treated poorly exact their revenge, though doing so hurts their own interests. Such perverse facts are a direct a≠ront to the standard model of the human actor— Economic Man—that classical and neoclassical economics have used as a foundation for decades, if not centuries. Economic Man makes logical, rational, self-interested decisions that weigh costs against benefits and maximize value and profit to himself. Economic Man is an intelligent, analytic, selfish creature who has perfect self-regulation in pursuit of his future goals and is unswayed by bodily states and feelings. And Economic Man is a marvelously convenient pawn for building academic theories. But Economic Man has one fatal flaw: he does not exist. When we turn to actual human beings, we find, instead of robot-like logic, all manner of irrational, self-sabotaging, and even 50 March - Apr il 2006 Behavioral economics explains why we procrastinate, buy, borrow, and grab chocolate on the spur of the moment. by Craig Lambert Portraits by Stu Rosner altruistic behavior. This is such a routine observation...
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...Corporate Psychological Defences: An Oil Spill Case Author(s): T. Ketola Source: Journal of Business Ethics, Vol. 65, No. 2 (May, 2006), pp. 149-161 Published by: Springer Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/25123778 . Accessed: 03/12/2013 07:49 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at . http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp . JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org. . Springer is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to Journal of Business Ethics. http://www.jstor.org This content downloaded from 130.209.6.50 on Tue, 3 Dec 2013 07:49:34 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions (2006) 65: 149-161 Journal of Business Ethics DOI 10.1007/sl0551-005-4175-4 ? Springer 2006 Corporate Psychological Defences: T. Ketola An Oil Spill Case ABSTPJVCT. protect isational morality defences the Organisational self-esteem even This an oil and moral at the paper refinery psychological integrity expense analyses and of the its parent of defences the organ the of while concessions corporation imply that is taking a ...
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...[pic] Ecole Supérieure Libre des Sciences Commerciales Appliquées Review of Literature Behavioral Finance Presented to Dr. Mohamed EL-Hennawy Group Assignment Prepared By Albert Naguib Noha Samir Wael Shams EL-Din Moshira Gamil Marie Zarif January 2012 | TABLE OF CONTENTS | | | |List of Table………………………………………………………………………….. | |List of Figure ………………………………………………………………………… | |List of Abbreviations/Acronyms ……………………………………………………. | |Introduction……………………………………………………………………….. | |2. Appearance of Behavioral Finance…………………………………………………… | |2.1. Important Contributors…………………………………………………. ………. | |3. Behavioral Biases…………………………………………………………………… ...
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...CONTE NTS Introduction 1 WHY YOU SHOULD VISIT CEMETERIES: Survivorship Bias 2 DOES HARVARD MAKE YOU SMARTER?: Swimmer’s Body Illusion 3 WHY YOU SEE SHAPES IN THE CLOUDS: Clustering Illusion 4 IF 50 MILLION PEOPLE SAY SOMETHING FOOLISH, IT IS STILL FOOLISH: Social Proof 5 WHY YOU SHOULD FORGET THE PAST: Sunk Cost Fallacy 6 DON’T ACCEPT FREE DRINKS: Reciprocity 7 BEWARE THE ‘SPECIAL CASE’: Confirmation Bias (Part 1) 8 MURDER YOUR DARLINGS: Confirmation Bias (Part 2) 9 DON’T BOW TO AUTHORITY: Authority Bias 10 LEAVE YOUR SUPERMODEL FRIENDS AT HOME: Contrast Effect 11 WHY WE PREFER A WRONG MAP TO NO MAP AT ALL: Availability Bias 12 WHY ‘NO PAIN, NO GAIN’ SHOULD SET ALARM BELLS RINGING: The It’llGet-Worse-Before-It-Gets-Better Fallacy 13 EVEN TRUE STORIES ARE FAIRYTALES: Story Bias 14 WHY YOU SHOULD KEEP A DIARY: Hindsight Bias 15 WHY YOU SYSTEMATICALLY OVERESTIMATE YOUR KNOWLEDGE AND ABILITIES: Overconfidence Effect 16 DON’T TAKE NEWS ANCHORS SERIOUSLY: Chauffeur Knowledge 17 YOU CONTROL LESS THAN YOU THINK: Illusion of Control 18 NEVER PAY YOUR LAWYER BY THE HOUR: Incentive Super-Response Tendency 19 THE DUBIOUS EFFICACY OF DOCTORS, CONSULTANTS AND PSYCHOTHERAPISTS: Regression to Mean 20 NEVER JUDGE A DECISION BY ITS OUTCOME: Outcome Bias 21 LESS IS MORE: The Paradox of Choice 22 YOU LIKE ME, YOU REALLY REALLY LIKE ME: Liking Bias 23 DON’T CLING TO THINGS: Endowment Effect 24 THE INEVITABILITY OF UNLIKELY Events: Coincidence 25 THE CALAMITY OF CONFORMITY: Groupthink 26 WHY...
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...dark until corporate finance theorists came along and told them what to do. To be fair, it is true that corporate financial theory has made advances in taking commonsense principles and providing structure, but these advances have been primarily on the details. The story line in corporate finance has remained remarkably consistent over time. Talking about story lines allows me to set the first theme of this book. This book tells a story, which essentially summarizes the corporate finance view of the world. It classifies all decisions made by any business into three groups—decisions on where to invest the resources or funds that the business has raised, either internally or externally (the investment decision), decisions on where and how to raise funds to finance these investments (the financing decision), and decisions on how much and in what form to return funds back to the owners (the dividend decision). As I see it, the first principles of corporate finance can be summarized in Figure 1, which also lays out a site map for the book. Every section of this book relates to some part of this picture, and each chapter is introduced with it,...
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...for permission should be addressed to the Legal Department, Wiley Publishing, Inc., 10475 Crosspoint Blvd., Indianapolis, IN 46256, 317-572-3447, fax 317-572-4355, or online at http://www.wiley.com/go/permissions. Trademarks: Wiley, the Wiley Publishing logo, For Dummies, the Dummies Man logo, A Reference for the Rest of Us!, The Dummies Way, Dummies Daily, The Fun and Easy Way, Dummies.com and related trade dress are trademarks or registered trademarks of John Wiley & Sons, Inc. and/or its affiliates in the United States and other countries, and may not be used without written permission. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. Wiley Publishing, Inc., is not associated with any product or vendor mentioned in this book. LIMIT OF LIABILITY/DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTY: THE PUBLISHER AND THE AUTHOR MAKE NO REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE ACCURACY OR...
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...published 2004 © Financial Times Management 2000 © Pearson Education Limited 2004 The right of Timothy G. Sutton to be identified as author of this work has been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs, and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without either the prior written permission of the publisher or a licence permitting restricted copying in the United Kingdom issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency Ltd, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W1T 4LP. ISBN 0 273 67620-2 British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. 10 08 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 07 06 05 04 2 1 Typeset in 10/12pt Minion by 35 Printed and bound by Bell & Bain Limited, Glasgow The publisher’s policy is to use paper...
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...The Little Book of Valuation Aswath Damodaran Stern School of Business 44 West Fourth Street, 9-‐96 New York, NY 10012 Email: adamodar@stern.nyu.edu Phone: 212-‐998-‐0340 First draft: October 14, 2010 Preface Knowing the value of an asset may not be a prerequisite for investing or a guarantee for success, but it does help us make more informed judgments. For most investors, though, valuing an asset seems to be a task that is far too complex and complicated for their skill sets. Consequently, they either depend upon those that they regard as professionals (equity research analysts, appraisers) for their valuations or ignore value entirely when investing. In this book, I hope to show that valuation, at its core, is simple and that anyone who is willing to spend some time collecting information and analyzing it, can ...
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...Contents Preface Acknowledgments Introduction 1 BRAIN POWER Myth #1 Most People Use Only 10% of Their Brain Power Myth #2 Some People Are Left-Brained, Others Are Right-Brained Myth #3 Extrasensory Perception (ESP) Is a Well-Established Scientific Phenomenon Myth #4 Visual Perceptions Are Accompanied by Tiny Emissions from the Eyes Myth #5 Subliminal Messages Can Persuade People to Purchase Products 2 FROM WOMB TO TOMB Myth #6 Playing Mozart’s Music to Infants Boosts Their Intelligence Myth #7 Adolescence Is Inevitably a Time of Psychological Turmoil Myth #8 Most People Experience a Midlife Crisis in | 8 Their 40s or Early 50s Myth #9 Old Age Is Typically Associated with Increased Dissatisfaction and Senility Myth #10 When Dying, People Pass through a Universal Series of Psychological Stages 3 A REMEMBRANCE OF THINGS PAST Myth #11 Human Memory Works like a Tape Recorder or Video Camera, and Accurate Events We’ve Experienced Myth #12 Hypnosis Is Useful for Retrieving Memories of Forgotten Events Myth #13 Individuals Commonly Repress the Memories of Traumatic Experiences Myth #14 Most People with Amnesia Forget All Details of Their Earlier Lives 4 TEACHING OLD DOGS NEW TRICKS Myth #15 Intelligence (IQ) Tests Are Biased against Certain Groups of People My th #16 If You’re Unsure of Your Answer When Taking a Test, It’s Best to Stick with Your Initial Hunch Myth #17 The Defining Feature of Dyslexia Is Reversing Letters Myth #18 Students Learn Best When Teaching Styles Are Matched to...
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...GENERAL GROWTH PROPERTIES: TO THE BRINK AND BACK December 6, 2011 Students: Yu (Cherry) Chen, Kevin Connolly, Bill Davis, Stephen Duncan, James Faello, Michael Hazinski, Noah Johnson Faculty Supervisor: Joseph L. Pagliari, Jr. Copyright © 2011 The Real Estate Group at The University of Chicago Booth School of Business All Rights Reserved This case study has been prepared solely for academic purposes. It should not be construed as a judgment about or an endorsement of any particular business matter. Moreover, the information contained herein has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable; however, we make no representation or warranty as to its accuracy. TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................... - 1 GENERAL GROWTH BACKGROUND ............................................................................ - 7 2004: A Historic Year for General Growth........................................................................ - 9 2005-2006: Secured Mortgages and Increasing Debt ..................................................... - 16 Simon vs. GGP - Capital Markets Strategy ..................................................................... - 24 IMPACT OF THE CREDIT CRISIS .................................................................................. - 31 GGP Faces Liquidity Challenge .................................................................................
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... Praise for Decide & Conquer: “Do you have trouble making important decisions? If you answered, ‘Well, yes and no,’ you need this book. It's as smart and straightforward as its title. I'm buying my agent five copies. —Joel Siegel Entertainment Editor Good Morning America “I thought making decisions was as natural as breathing— something we just do. Dr. Robbins makes it crystal clear that decision making ability is a skill that can be improved with knowledge from self evaluation and consideration of the right criteria. This book will help not only people who struggle with decisions, but also those who consider themselves effective decision makers.” —Jim Despain, Managing Partner, DESPAINCONVERSE, and co-author of …and Dignity for All “Robbins shows that making good decisions requires more than just knowing the facts. You must know yourself, too! It is the human aspects of the decision-making process that fail. But these problems can be overcome. Start making good decisions now by choosing to read this book.” —John Nofsinger, author of Infectious Greed and Investment Blunders (of the Rich and Famous) “A must read. Robbins translates a vast array of arcane research into a clearly written practical guide that will surely help people make better personal decisions.” —Steven P. Schnaars, author of Marketing Strategy, Second Edition “This is a very personal book that has shown me how to make better choices in my life. The chapter on “Over Confidence” explains why I made some not so good choices...
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...THE INTELLIGENT INVESTOR A BOOK OF PRACTICAL COUNSEL REVISED EDITION B E NJAM I N G RAHAM Updated with New Commentary by Jason Zweig To E.M.G. Through chances various, through all vicissitudes, we make our way. . . . Aeneid Contents Epigraph iii Preface to the Fourth Edition, by Warren E. Buffett viii A Note About Benjamin Graham, by Jason Zweig x Introduction: What This Book Expects to Accomplish COMMENTARY ON THE INTRODUCTION 1. 1 12 35 The Investor and Inflation 47 COMMENTARY ON CHAPTER 2 3. 18 COMMENTARY ON CHAPTER 1 2. Investment versus Speculation: Results to Be Expected by the Intelligent Investor 58 65 COMMENTARY ON CHAPTER 3 4. A Century of Stock-Market History: The Level of Stock Prices in Early 1972 80 General Portfolio Policy: The Defensive Investor 88 COMMENTARY ON CHAPTER 4 5. 101 124 Portfolio Policy for the Enterprising Investor: Negative Approach 133 COMMENTARY ON CHAPTER 6 7. 112 COMMENTARY ON CHAPTER 5 6. The Defensive Investor and Common Stocks 145 iv 155 COMMENTARY ON CHAPTER 7 8. Portfolio Policy for the Enterprising Investor: The Positive Side 179 The Investor and Market Fluctuations 188 v Contents COMMENTARY ON CHAPTER 8 9. Investing in Investment Funds COMMENTARY ON CHAPTER 9 213 226 242 10. The Investor and His Advisers 257 COMMENTARY ON CHAPTER 10 272 11. Security...
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...relations. I. Title. HD38.5 .C44 2001 658.5—dc21 2001022227 This book contains information obtained from authentic and highly regarded sources. Reprinted material is quoted with permission, and sources are indicated. A wide variety of references are listed. Reasonable efforts have been made to publish reliable data and information, but the author and the publisher cannot assume responsibility for the validity of all materials or for the consequences of their use. Neither this book nor any part may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, microfilming, and recording, or by any information storage or retrieval system, without prior permission in writing from the publisher. The consent of CRC Press LLC does not extend to copying for general distribution, for promotion, for creating new works, or for resale. Specific permission must be obtained in writing from CRC Press LLC for such copying. Direct all inquiries to CRC Press LLC, 2000 N.W. Corporate Blvd., Boca Raton, Florida 33431. Trademark Notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation, without intent to infringe. Visit the Auerbach Publications Web site at www.auerbach-publications.com Copyright © 2001 by CRC Press LLC Auerbach is an imprint of CRC Press LLC No claim to original U.S. Government works International Standard Book Number 0-8493-1076-8 Library of Congress Card Number 2001022227...
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...THE JOURNAL OF FINANCE • VOL. LVI, NO. 4 • AUGUST 2001 Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing DAVID HIRSHLEIFER* ABSTRACT The basic paradigm of asset pricing is in vibrant f lux. The purely rational approach is being subsumed by a broader approach based upon the psychology of investors. In this approach, security expected returns are determined by both risk and misvaluation. This survey sketches a framework for understanding decision biases, evaluates the a priori arguments and the capital market evidence bearing on the importance of investor psychology for security prices, and reviews recent models. The best plan is . . . to profit by the folly of others. — Pliny the Elder, from John Bartlett, comp. Familiar Quotations, 9th ed. 1901. IN THE MUDDLED DAYS BEFORE THE RISE of modern finance, some otherwisereputable economists, such as Adam Smith, Irving Fisher, John Maynard Keynes, and Harry Markowitz, thought that individual psychology affects prices.1 What if the creators of asset-pricing theory had followed this thread? Picture a school of sociologists at the University of Chicago proposing the Deficient Markets Hypothesis: that prices inaccurately ref lect all available information. A brilliant Stanford psychologist, call him Bill Blunte, invents the Deranged Anticipation and Perception Model ~or DAPM!, in which proxies for market misvaluation are used to predict security returns. Imagine the euphoria when researchers discovered that these mispricing proxies...
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...do a competent job of reporting on the prospect’s record. In the case of Governor George W. Bush, Texas reporters had written numerous stories about his failed businesses in the oil patch, the dubious land grab and questionable funding behind a new stadium for Bush’s baseball team, the Texas Rangers, and his various political contradictions and hypocrisies while serving in Austin. I was one of those Texas journalists. I spent about a decade trying to find accurate information on Bush’s record in the Texas National Guard. My curiosity had been prompted by his failure to adequately answer a question I had asked him as a panelist in a televised debate with Ann Richards during the 1994 gubernatorial campaign. Eventually I published three books on Bush and his political consigliere, Karl Rove. During Bush’s presidency, many other...
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