Do liquor sales affect the crime rates in the Richmond Tri-Cities area?

The Authorization Statement
The purpose of this comprehensive data analysis will utilize secondary data to determine if there is a direct correlation between liquor sales and crime rates in the tri- cities area. Project Summary
TITLE:
The proposal will provide a comprehensive data analysis regarding is there a direct correlations between liquor sales and crimes rates in the tri-cities area
PROJECT DESCRIPTION:
The purposed project analysis will collect 10 years of sales data from the Virginia ABC Board and the City of Richmond, Henrico County, and Chesterfield County crime statistics reports in an effort to determine if liquor sales have an effect on the crime rates in the tri-cities area. Due to the large data volume, the team will provide the following data analysis: i. Provide two sets of independent data that will be composed into Scatter Charts. ii. If the team determines there is a direct correlation between liquor sales and crime rates, the team will proceed in determining the Linear Regression and the Coefficient of determination regarding liquor consumption and criminal behavior. iii. A comprehensive summary report with itemized data and presentation will be presented with an answer to the teams’ hypothesis: Does liquor sales affect the crime rate in the Richmond Tri-cities area?
SCOPE OF PROJECT
To determine if the sales of liquor has an effect on the crime rate for the Richmond tri-cities area, the team will collect data for the same time period of 10 years from the VABC and Richmond Metro law enforcement agencies. The team will extract the annual sales data from the Virginia ABC stores Performance Reports for Richmond City, Henrico County and Chesterfield County. The extracted data will reveal the number of gallons and sales figures of liquor sold in the targeted areas. The crime rate data collected will reveal the amount of reported misdemeanor and felony crimes. Between the two categories, the team will break down each category by assaults, thefts, robberies and DUI’s.
OUTLINE FOR PROPOSED PROJECT I. BACKGROUND
Historical Information II. RESEARCH DESIGN (ANALYSIS DATA FROM 2000-2010

III. DATA COLLECTION DESIGN-SECONDARY DATA COLLECTION

IV. SCOPE OF PROJECT a. Target geographical area (Richmond Tri-Cities) b. Liquor sale only (distilled spirits), excluding beer and wine c. Crime Rate: assaults, thefts, robberies, and vehicle collisions

V. DEGREE OF RESEARCH d. Collect liquor sales data from Virginia Alcoholic Beverage Control for targeted area. e. Collect crime rate data from local law enforcement agencies for targeted area. f. Compile, manipulate, and analyze both sets of independent data to determine if there is any correlation between liquor sales and crime rate for the targeted area.

VI. PURPOSE OF STUDY a. The purpose of this study is to examine the effect that alcohol sales have on the crime rate in the Richmond Tri-city area. b. The team will compile the data necessary to reveal the reported crimes by category such as assaults, thefts, robberies, DUI’s, and misdemeanors.

VII. CHARTS

VIII. CONCLUSION

IX. APPENDICES

BUDGET BREAKDOWN
The cost of this project will be $8,000.00 to cover our labor cost. There will be a team of four individuals dedicated to this project. We anticipate this project to take approximately 80 hours at a rate of $100.00 per hour. This time will consist of 40 hours of data collection and compilation and 40 hours of analysis and conclusion. Executive Summary
The project analysis utilized 10 years of sales data from the Virginia ABC
Board, the City of Richmond, Henrico County, and Chesterfield County crime statistics reports in an effort to determine if liquor sales have an effect on crime rates in the tri-cities area. To determine if the sales of liquor has a direct causation impact on the crime rates for the
Richmond tri-cities area, the team collected data for the same time period of 10 years from the
Virginia Alcohol Beverage Control Board and Richmond Metro law enforcement agencies.
The team extracted the annual sales data from the Virginia ABC stores annual performance reports for Richmond City, Henrico County, and Chesterfield County. The extracted data revealed the number of gallons and sales figures of liquor sold in the targeted areas. The crime rate data collected revealed the amount of reported misdemeanor and felony crimes. Between the two categories, the team tabulated each category by assaults, thefts, robberies, and DUI collisions. At the conclusion of the project, the secondary data will determine if there is a direct correlation between annual liquors sales and crime rates in the tri cities area.

Table of Content
Authorization Statement...…...………………………………………………………2
Project Proposal……………………………………………………………………...2-4
Executive Summary…….………………………………………………………........4
Background..................................................................................................................6
Purpose of Study…………………………………………………………………..….6
Historical Information…..………………………………………………………….....6-7 Budget Breakdown....…………………………………………………………………8
Hypothesis…………..………………………………………………………..……….8
Research Design …………………..…………………………………………………8-10
Data Collection Sources………………………………………………………………10

Results Summary …………..…………………………………………………………11

Conclusion………………….……………………………………………………….....12

Limitations/Caveats……………………………………………………………………12

Appendices……………………………………………………………………………13-16

Background
The Virginia Department of Alcoholic Beverage Control works to ensure that adults of legal age who choose to responsibly consume alcohol can do so in a safe environment — one that operates in compliance with the laws and regulations of the Commonwealth. With approximately 330 stores in convenient locations throughout the Commonwealth, ABC is dedicated to providing legal-aged adults with an enjoyable, modern shopping environment
(Virginia.gov, 2013). However, according to the United States of Justice report on alcohol and crime found that alcohol abuse was a factor in 40 percent of violent crimes committed in the
United States (About.com, 2013). The goal of the project will prove if there is a direct correlation between liquor sales and crime rates based on data from 2000 to 2010. Also, the team will determine the linear regression and coefficient of determination regarding liquor consumption and criminal behavior.
Purpose of the Study
The purpose of this study examined the effects that alcohol sales have on crime rate in the Richmond Tri-city area. The team compiled the data necessary to reveal the reported crimes by category such as assaults, thefts, robberies, DUI accidents, and misdemeanors. Historical Information Prohibition in the United States was a national ban on the sale, manufacture, and transportation of alcohol. The ban was mandated by the Eighteenth Amendment to the Constitution, and the Volstead Act set down the rules for enforcing the ban and defined the types of alcoholic beverages that were prohibited. The Senate proposed the Eighteenth Amendment on December 18, 1917. Being approved by 36 states, the Eighteenth Amendment was ratified on January 16, 1919 and effective on January 16, 1920. The introduction of alcohol prohibition and its subsequent enforcement in law was a hot debate issue. It was a discussion that presented the issue of public morals and health in human society. The consumption of alcohol went down by half in the 1920s and it remained below the pre-prohibition level until the 1940s. The lack of a solid consensus for the ban of alcohol resulted in the growth of a variety of criminal organizations, including the modern American Mafia, and other criminal cliques. It also generated corruption among politicians and within police forces. When the Prohibition was repealed in 1933, organized crime lost nearly all of its black market alcohol profits in most states because of competition with legal liquor stores selling alcohol at lower prices. Because the advancements of industrialization within the alcohol industry were essentially reversed, it also reversed the efficiency of mass producing and retailing alcoholic beverages. Closing the manufacturing plants and taverns resulted in economic reversal, but criminal activity remained steady by forcing individual citizens producing and providing alcohol illegally. Alcohol consumption played a major role in criminal activity around the world. In the year 2000, a new federal law required states to pass legislation making it a crime to drive with blood alcohol concentration (BAC) at or above .08 percent. A study by Henry Wechsler in 2002, found that among college women who drink alcohol, unplanned sex and sexual adult increased by 50 percent. Lastly in alcohol fact history, studies showed that in the United States, 50 to 60 percent of physical attacks in the home involved alcohol use and on half of all batterers are reported to be problem drinkers.

Budget Breakdown
The cost of this project will be $8,000.00 to cover our labor cost. There will be a team of four individuals dedicated to this project. We anticipate this project to take approximately 80 hours at a rate of $100.00 per hour. This time will consist of 40 hours of data collection and compilation and 40 hours of analysis and conclusion.
Hypothesis
Does the sale of alcohol affect crime rate in the Richmond Tri-cities region? Research Design The Commonwealth of Virginia expands over 39,490.09 square miles, contains 95 counties, and has a population of 8,096,604 according to the 2010 United States Census Bureau. To better manage a research project of this magnitude, the Team decided to narrow the scope of the project by targeting a small portion of the state to conduct its research. The geographical region that was chosen for this project will focus on the Richmond Metropolitan region. The Richmond Metropolitan Tri-cities area consists of three separate localities which include Richmond City, Chesterfield County, and Henrico County. The Tri-cities are located in the Central region of the state and Interstate 95 and 64 run straight through the majority of the targeted area. Of the three localities, Richmond City has a population of 204,214; Chesterfield 316,236; and Henrico County has a population of 306,935, as reported by the 2011 Census. The team is confident that the method of research will reveal a direct correlation regarding the amount of alcohol being sold and the amount of criminal activities for the Richmond Tri-cities area. In going forward with this research, the data collected from both sources have been accurately collected, recorded, and stored in a reputable government database. Each set of data collected will cover a period of time from 2000 to 2010. The use of the secondary data shall paint an accurate picture in regard to a distinct relationship between alcohol consumption and criminal behavior. The team will compile, manipulate, and analyze the collected data in Data Tables, Line Graphs, and a Scatter Diagram.
Since the repealing of the Prohibition of Alcohol Amendment in 1933, the Virginia Alcoholic Beverage Control has been selling distilled spirits to its citizens and visitor out of their retail stores. The State of Virginia currently own and operate more than 330 retail stores throughout the Commonwealth of Virginia. To better manage the research efforts, the team has decided to collect and use data for liquor sales only, excluding the sale of beer and wine. In addition to limiting the scope to just liquor sales, the team will only be using crime rate data from the three mentioned jurisdictions. The geographical region in which the team will be conducting a research will consists of three different jurisdictions. Each jurisdiction has its own law enforcement agency and each jurisdiction is responsible for keeping an accurate record of all reported criminal offenses. In order to conduct a manageable research on the three localities, the team has decided to narrow the crime rate into four categories, which include simple assaults, thefts, and armed robberies.
The team believes that alcohol consumption and criminal activities will have a definite relationship between the two. It is common knowledge that the consumption and alcohol effects a person’s judgment and ability to reason in most everyday situations. Therefore, if the targeted area should experience an increase in the amount of liquor being sold, than the research results should reveal an increase in the number of reported court cases evolving persons participating in some sort of criminal activities while functioning under the influence of an intoxicating substance. It is the team’s prediction that as the volume of liquor being sold increases, so will the probability of a person partaking in a criminal activity will most likely to occur should also increase.
On the down side of this research, it is possible to discover that alcohol sales have no impact on the crime rate in the Tri-cities. One possible scenario that could skew this research is to take in consideration the alcohol sales that is purchased and consumed outside the Tri-cities area. And secondly, the number of criminal activities that are not reported could misrepresent the facts in this research. In both instances, the research will not reveal an accurate analysis regarding alcohol sales and crime rate. Data Collection Sources
The secondary data sources included the Virginia Department of Alcoholic Beverage Control, the Department of Motor Vehicles, the U.S Census Bureau, and Richmond, Henrico, and Chesterfield County Police Department crime data.
Virginia ABC Board reports summarized year to date store sales by brands, as well as monthly gallon usage breakdown that includes over 330 stores throughout the state of Virginia. The Department of Motor Vehicles data provided collision data for the tri cities areas. The United States Census data captured the population statistics for 2010 in the targeted localities. By law the Census Bureau must count everyone and submit state population totals to the U.S. President by December 31 of any year ending in a 0 (U.S Census Bureau, 2010). Secondary crime rate data was collected from tri cities law enforcement agencies and categorized by assaults, thefts, robberies and DUI collisions. Result Summary

The team believed that alcohol consumption and criminal activity would have a definite correlation relationship trend between the two. As we further analyzed the graphical data displayed, we realized and charted that alcohol consumption and criminal activity in the Commonwealth have a minimal and indirect correlation. Conclusion
After analyzing the data in a Scatter diagram, the team concluded that there is a moderate – negative correlation between alcohol sales and crime rate in the Richmond Tri-cities. The sample correlation coefficient produced r = 0.8868. According to Brase & Brase (2012), p. 142, “The correlation coefficient can be thought of as a measure of how well a linear model fits the data points on a scatter diagram. The closer r is to 1 or -1, the better a line “fits” the data. Values of r close to 0 indicate a poor fit to any line”. With that being said, as the sales of liquor increases, the crime rate will decrease in the Richmond Metropolitan Tri-cities area. Therefore, the team has determined that based upon the 2000-2010 ABC store performance data and crime rate data, that liquor sales had a miniscule effect on crime rates in the Tri cities areas. Limitations/Caveats Originally, the team planned to utilize crime statistic data based on DUI’s which is a criminal offense in most counties; however, the data information provided statistics based upon the entire state of Virginia. Therefore, the team used the Department of Motor Vehicle accident report data for Richmond, Henrico and Chesterfield County. The ABC Board Reports provided overall gallons sold and net sale revenue per each locality. Annual sales included distilled spirits and wine, but beer sales were not included in the data projections.
The Annual ABC Board Reports focused on the gross sales as a major source of revenue for the Commonwealth, the ABC contributed $1.7 billion to Virginia general fund in the last five years, and more than 6 billion to the general fund since the first ABC stores opened in 1934 (Virginia Department of Alcoholic Beverage Control, 2012).

Appendices

References
Brase, C.H., & Brase, C.P. (2012). Understanding basic statistics. (6th ed.). Boston, MA: Brooks/Cole.

Chesterfield County Police. (2012). Retrieved from: http://www.chesterfield.gov/police.aspx?id=2526

Federal Bureau of Investigation. (2012). Retrieved from: http://www.fbi.gov/stats-services/crimestats Federal Bureau of Investigation. (2012). Retrieved from: http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr

Henrico County Police. (2012). Retrieved from: http://www.co.henrico.va.us/police/public-data-access/

Richmond City Police. (2012). Retrieved from: http://www.richmondgov.com/Police/CrimeIncidentInfo.aspx

U.S. Census. (2012). Retrieved from: http://www.census.gov/#

Virginia Department of Alcoholic Beverage Control. (2012). Retrieved from: http://www.abc.virginia.gov/admin/aboutabc.html

Vriginia Departmant of Motor Vehicles. (2012). Retrieved from: http://www.dmv.virginia.gov/webdoc/pdf/tss02.pdf