Question: How will you use the power of exponential technologies to bring about exponential impact?
Answer: Embrace the idea of a Future that looks very different from Today.
Before talking bigly about how the power of exponential technologies can bring about exponential impact, let’s take one step backward and see what the word “exponential” means to us first. The term “exponential” first popped up at 1965, it can be dated back to when Gordon Moore introduced the Moore’s law, which predicts the number of components per integrated circuit would double every year. With the establishment of Moore’s law, it left several insights to the world which are worth to mention: 1. It is predictable that the performance of technologies will double in very rapid way 2. The price of technologies will also decrease by half in very rapid pace. In terms of these prevailing conditions, we can see the exponential technology self-expands in its two traits to the world: Breadth and Depth. So how could these two expansions traditionally make exponential impacts in century? Take camera as an example, it has been evolved from the world’s first digital camera – Kodak Digital Camera at 1975 which cannot take video-taped to the nowadays digital single-lens reflex camera at 2016 which can offer superb image quality and video recording at 4K resolution. In terms of performance, instead of using camera to capture best moments every day, people now use camera: To show the rest of the “fan community” that “I was there”; To let the worldwide events captured to enter one’s window. Not just do the performance upgrade, the price and size also make camera more accessible to the world. The cost of buying a camera has been reduced from a hefty price tag of U.S $13,000 for a low quality camera to U.S $ 2,499 for a Canon – EOS 5D Mark III DSLR Camera. Undoubtedly, the reducing price opens the entrance for camera to people broadly and now 2.5 billion of people have a camera with them. As a result, we can see this exponential technology makes exponential impacts on one hand changing the individual’s habits and at the same time building up a network around the world.
2016
2016
1975
1975
When it comes to the 21st century, exponential technologies are not simply digital cameras already and it may come to artificial intelligence, robotics, biotechnology, and nanotechnology etc. But meanwhile, the impact challenges are not simply the price or size of a technology anymore. To make an exponential impact, you must first figure out the problems that exponentially affecting our society. For me, the slowing rate of innovation, the limited access of information and reverse salient are included in the list of problems. By tackling these challenges using the exponential technologies, it is possible to achieve exponential impacts to the society.
Technology – to - People
Technology – to - People
Technology – to – Technology
Technology – to – Technology
Technology – to – Technology
Technology – to – Technology
For the slowdown of innovation, we can see the cap of the exponential growth of technologies and it is high time to integrate the exponential technologies so as to release the synergy among them to continue the exponential impacts. One technological breakthrough makes a small impact, but if a whole new system of technologies is brought in, the impacts can be exponential. The invention of Electricity is a good example. In the electricity system, it doesn’t consist of electricity only, it also composes of a great variety of innovations across many other technological areas like telephone, internet, air transport etc. Without the electrical systems, the invention of electricity itself would not create much scientific, economic, technological and political changes and be impacted by them. On the one hand, the way people use electricity within the electrical system continuously refine the current model like exploring for new resources for electrical provision. On the other hand, the continuous expanding and refining system impacts the way human interact, behave and live their lives in an exponential manner. As a result, a system for exponential technologies are important for innovation to carry exponential impacts to the world.
Second, Peter Diamandis, the founder of Singularity University once said that “Want to become a billionaire? Help a billion of people.” Not am I tempting people to help more people because of money, I just would like to point out that making the exponential technologies cheaper and wide-spread is one of the way to make impacts as big as a “billion” number. Markets like India are still like a closed environment and are not accessible to those cutting-edge technologies. Yet, with the continuous price reducing, it is possible to lower the threshold to the access of exponential technologies. Ideas like “One laptop per child” is an example of making use of the power of exponential technology itself: Cheap price and compactible size to give a window to the children to the world. The OLPC Program facilitates collaborative learning among the children and furthermore enhance the knowledge of their parents. As a result, we can see the nature of exponential technologies is not only adding value to the assets themselves at the first degree. By penetrating these assets to the rapid-developing countries and improving and educating the environment, it can in turn liberate the potential benefits of these assets by the Law of large number and achieve the second degree: How to use assets as a vaccine against ignorance and poverty.
And finally we are talking about reverse salient, what do it mean? It is a term borrowed from the military which is used to describe sections of an advancing line that have fallen back. By applying in technological aspect, it refers to the obstacle that hamper the growth of the components and hence the overall growth of the system is unevenly and cannot function optimally. Take the provision of mobile phone service in Hong Kong MTR as an example. Previously it was not possible to use mobile phone in the MTR, but with the reverse salient solved, the mobile phone market can be more saturated. In other words, exponential technologies, which are most advanced and highly developing can be used to solve those reverse salient so as to release the markets of particular technologies in order to achieve exponential impacts. Such terminology can be applied in different technological areas like laptop computer. In the past, computers could only connect to the Internet with networking cables and the effects of computers and Internet are not effectively and efficiently optimized. But with invention of the wireless router, which is an exponential technology in computer networking, it resolved the inconvenience of mobility brought by traditional networking system and accomplished the evolution of Networking hardware.
In conclusion, I would like to use a speech given by Ray Kurzwell: “If you understand the potential of exponential technologies to transform everything from energy to healthcare to education, you have a different perspective on how we can solve the grand challenges of humanity,” to conclude my essay. Never consider exponential technologies are the most important thing in progress of changing the world, what exponential are human-kind.
