...Risk Factor Analysis— A New Qualitative Risk Management Tool John P. Kindinger, Probabilistic Risk and Hazards Analysis Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory John L. Darby, Probabilistic Risk and Hazards Analysis Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory Introduction Project risk analysis, like all risk analyses, must be implemented using a graded approach; that is, the scope and approach of the analysis must be crafted to fit the needs of the project based on the project size, the data availability, and other requirements of the project team. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) has developed a systematic qualitative project risk analysis technique called the Risk Factor Analysis (RFA) method as a useful tool for early, preconceptual risk analyses, an intermediate-level approach for medium-size projects, or as a prerequisite to a more detailed quantitative project risk analysis. This paper introduces the conceptual underpinnings of the RFA technique, describes the steps involved in performing the analysis, and presents some examples of RFA applications and results. project activity flow chart to help organize the RFA. The flow chart defines the tasks to be modeled and their interrelationships for the project schedule analysis. WBS and schedule tasks may be consolidated and/or expanded to explicitly highlight those tasks and influences that are expected to have a significant technical risk and/or significant uncertainty in schedule or cost performance. The flow chart is developed...
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...Wengart Aircraft Case 1. What are the macro and/or micro level problems? 2. What are the potential causes (please support your view)? 3. What are your recommendations? The macro problems include top management not thoroughly understanding, implementing or communicating TQM to their employees. This caused negative rumors to develop. Larsen also said that he was too busy which indicates that the company does not have management buy-in on the TQM project. The micro problems include the quality of production is impacting the company’s reputation and they are dangerously close to losing more clients,. Upper management is focusing on profits only instead of the individual pieces that can improve profits. One cause is that the company tried to implement TQM by only putting the production manager in charge instead of listening to Lopez who suggested that human resources and production work together under the direction of Larsen’s office to implement the changes. This was a mistake because TQM requites a culture of quality at all levels of the organization. To implement the changes was going to require education and training and these items should have been considered. My recommendations would be to restructure the TQM to be run from Larsen’s office and have all managers involved. I would also suggest hiring an OD professional to manage this project as well as develop a plan to improve profits. I would also get the necessary training and education for the workers....
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...Wengart Aircraft Problems Macro There is a lack of understanding of TQM and how to implement it. Management did not fully commit to TQM; management looked at the TQM as a production issue and focused its leadership to solve the problem with its Vice President (VP) of production. It also failed to recognize that TQM is an organization wide effort and must be enforced, encouraged and supported from Top management in word, deed and philosophy at every opportunity. Training, is knowledge and management focusing on profits and not the implementation of TQM. There is lack of trust from unionized workers. The workers suspected this was profit motivated and perpetrated by top management to benefit top management with credit and profits. The workers held their own meeting and decided that increases in quality and efficiency meant cut backs in the labor force and loss of jobs. They decided on their own the way to fix the quality problems was to slow down the work and ensure their where no defects to the products before it left the factory. Their reasoning is by slowing production quality will increase and no one will lose their job. Inversely, if they increase quality and efficiency, jobs will be lost and this normally is blue collar jobs that get cut. Micro There is a deterioration of profits and lack of quality. Top management is focusing on profits and not TQM. There is wasted time and lack of team work between the different sections. Causes Some of the causes...
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...Pricing: Overall, Porsche is strongly positioned to differentiate themselves and produce vehicles at a profitable, competitive price. Technology sharing with the Volkswagen group allows for efficient cost competitive production that should become even more efficient over time, and current assets help keep fixed costs down. One major weakness at this point is the dilution of brand image. Although Porsche was saved from bankruptcy by the introduction of down-market or recession models such as the Boxster and Cayman, their success has been self sacrificing, and the brand is no longer valued as highly. This reduces the premium consumers are willing to pay for a Porsche product, although the decrease is presently minimal and is largely replaced with high engineering abilities. However it is important to note that Porsche 911’s advantages in having a small, compact design and having the most fuel-efficient car may have a distinct effect on future markets three years from now, making their benefits more relevant in the future, and thus consumers would be more willing to pay a price premium for. Porsche should focus on a pricing strategy of enhancing the sales mix, and apply the pricing strategy of layered pricing especially upon offering different versions of the 911 to different segments of the target market at different price points according to specific needs. However, this can be further augmented by increasing price while offering the same benefits. Applying this deep...
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...Analysis Wengart Aircraft Case Week 5 At its core, Total Quality Management (TQM) is a management approach to long-term success through customer satisfaction (Brown, 2011, p. 344). TQM is an organization-wide change movement towards streamline work-groups and structure. In a TQM effort, all members of an organization participate in improving processes, products. One of the large problems facing Wengart Aircraft is total quality management (TQM) is not being communicated clearly and concisely to the entire company. By Allen Yoshida doing a presentation to only the managers and supervisors on what TQM was this left room for “various interpretations of TQM” by the managers, supervisors and front line workers (Brown, 2011, p. 365). The fact that during the presentation Allen Yoshida did not clearly illustrate how TQM would affect the company’s everyday activities or how it would be implemented only further confuses the miscommunications happening thought the company. TQM calls for creating constancy of purpose for improving products and services. If the message received by the lower level employees is not consistence then the improvements or change will not be consistent either. Another large problem facing Wengart Aircraft is total quality management should be worked towards by the whole company, from the top of the company down, all groups should be embracing this change. CEO and other top managers visibly support TQM, which is not happening at Wengart Aircraft since...
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...WENGART AIRCRAFT: BRIEFING NOTES Source: Harvey, D. & Brown, D. (2001). An experiential approach to Organisation Development (6th. Ed.). Upper Saddle River: Prentice-Hall. President Ralph Larsen of Wengart Aircraft has become increasingly concerned about profits. Though he is not fearful of a company takeover, he does feel an obligation to maximize shareholders' return on their investment. He and about a dozen top executives receive sizable stock bonuses, so it is to their advantage to obtain a high share price. Wengart manufactures commercial and military aircraft. It is number two in its industry, which is composed of nine companies. Its profits, however, are ranked seventh. It is disturbing to Larsen and his top management team that they are not able to maximize profits. QUALITY PROBLEMS Quality has been identified by the top management team as one of the major problems at Wengart. Aircraft have to be reworked even after they are sent to the customer. The federal government, one of Wengart's largest customers, shares the concern for quality to the extent that several letters have been sent to Larsen from the Secretary of Defence warning him that unless quality is improved by 20 percent within 6 months, the government will exercise its contract provision to withhold partial payment as a penalty. This will place even more pressure on profits. Nongovernmental customers have also expressed serious concerns about quality. There have been major stories in The Wall...
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...another of Porter's forces. Moreover, a lot of airlines such as Qatar Airways and Emirates have a brand name which they have to defend so they compete in doing so. The airlines are continually competing against each other in terms of prices, technology, in-flight entertainment, customer services and many more areas. The net result of this competition between companies is an overall slow market growth rate. One of the forces that Porter describes is Entry into the industry. In the world today, the airline industry is so saturated that there is hardly space for a newcomer even to squeeze its way in. The biggest for this is the cost of entry. The airline industry is one of the most expensive industries, due to the cost of buying and leasing aircrafts, safety and security measures, customer service and manpower. Another major barrier to entry is the brand name of existing airlines and it is really difficult to lure customers out of their existing brands. On the other hand, a newcomer could enter this saturated market easier with a completely new concept and/or technology. This was the case when Southwest entered the airline industry, with the new concept of budget or low cost...
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...Individual Reflection Paper Before beginning our analysis of the airline industry, I had made some assumptions based solely on my experience as a customer. Some of which were verified but others turned out to be false. Seeing that there are minimal competitors, I assumed that it would be a difficult market to enter which was verified in our study showing the airline industry is an oligopoly. Another pre-conceived notion about the industry that proved to be correct was how fuel cost drove airfare and fee pricing. As fuel cost increased, so did airfare along with the creation of more ancillary fees for things such as baggage or roomier seats. I had also assumed that new successful entrants would be attacked in a way that would cause them to go out of business. In reality, they are targeted but for acquisition reasons which was a surprise to me. I found the percentage of the workforce employed to be particularly interesting along with the schooling necessary to obtain each position. The interesting aspect is that every group in the workforce does not require a degree from a traditional university. All training necessary for a career within the airline industry is specific to that role and is not easily transferrable over to other career paths. This makes me think that many individuals have decided before graduating high school that they will pursue a career in this industry since the traditional university does little to help. Once they have started at a local university,...
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...LONG DURATION FIGHTER OPERATIONS WITH AIR-TO-AIR REFUELLING AND ITS AERO-MEDICAL ASPECTS INTRODUCTION 1. Air-to-Air refuelling ops are those which involve the transfer of fuel from one ac to another in flight. This extends the range, enables fighters to carry increased payload, increases the time on station and affords far greater flexibility in employment of aircraft. Air-to-Air refuelling can be used to enhance the capabilities of virtually all types of aircraft. The IAF has recently acquired air-to-air refuelling capability with the induction of IL-78 Flight Refuelling Aircraft (FRA) in its inventory. 2. The induction of the FRA would result in a considerable increase in the duration of fighter flights. Flights of fighter aircraft, which were earlier restricted to approx. 2 ½ to 3 hours, could now increase to 7 to 8 hours or even longer. Such long duration flights pose certain physiological difficulties and problems for fighter pilots of the IAF, who have so far not been exposed to such operations. Certain human frailties and physiological factors involved in these long duration fighter operations need to be understood by our fighter aircrew and they need to train to address the peculiarities arising thereof. AIM 3. The aim of this paper is to identify the aero-medical aspects involved in long duration fighter operations resulting from air-to-air refuelling and suggest remedies for the same. It would also attempt to suggest modifications on the M-2000...
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...Definition of pricing strategies is the element of a firm’s decision-making concerned with the setting of process that will attract the target market and allow profit objectives to be met. Ryanair’s objective is to firmly establish itself as Europe’s leading low-fares scheduled passengers’ airline through continued improvements and expanded offerings of its low-fares services. Ryanair aims to offer low fares that generate increased passenger traffic while maintaining a continuous focus on cost-containment and operating efficiencies. A good pricing strategies had help Ryanair to achieve the objective and aims. Ryanair’s low fares are designed to stimulate demand, particularly from fare-conscious leisure and business travelers who might otherwise have used alternative forms of transportation or would not have traveled at all. Ryanair sells seats on a one-way basis, thus eliminating minimum stay requirements from all travel on Ryanair scheduled services, regardless of fare. Ryanair sets fares on the basis of the demand for particular flights and by reference to the period remaining to the date of departure of the flight with higher fares charges on flights with higher levels of demand for bookings made nearer to the date of departure. Ryanair’s tight cost control was the backbone of its low-price strategy. As a result of this cost focus, Ryanair had by far the lowest costs in Europe, about 40% lower than its closest competitors. One of the elements of Ryanair’s cost-control...
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...Economic downturn and contingency plans * Competition from Airbus that was being subsidized by the govt. * Opportunities * Acquisition of Rockwell and merger with McDonnell Douglas. * Lean manufacturing helped Boeing “greatly reduced out-of-sequence work and parts shortages.” * New technology on 737 that was too advanced for customers. 2. What is the e-Enabled Advantage? How did it link to the company’s strategy? * e-Enabled Advantage is an IT service that Boeing can place into aircrafts that will help airlines collect and analyze data surrounding the aircraft’s maintenance, flight operations, and passenger needs. * Designed to “help airlines cut costs, improve dispatch reliability, reduce delays and cancellations, improve passenger service, enhance aviation security, and provide real-time situational awareness…” (Pg. 199). * Service, not a tangible product. (Pg. 199). * Allows the aircraft to be integrated with airline ground systems. * “…it’s a factory that is ‘unplugged’ from the airline while flying…depriving airlines of valuable information and data that could be used to improve efficiency and safety.” (Pg. 201). * Company’s strategy was shifted from short-term management to long-term value planning. (Pg. 201). * Shifted the company from focusing on providing a tangible product to providing services that was “about improving the performance of the people in the airline.” (Pg. 204)...
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...To analyze the Indian Commercial Aerospace market for Cobham India Pvt. Ltd By Satyendra Shukla 11P224 Management Development Institute Gurgaon 122 001 May, 2012 To analyze the Indian Commercial Aerospace market for Cobham India Pvt. Ltd By Satyendra Shukla Under the guidance of Mr. Lee Griffiths Director India Cobham India Pvt. Ltd. Management Development Institute Gurgaon 122 001 May, 2012 Executive Summary The project aims at to analyze the Indian Aerospace Industry and try to find out through secondary research the growth prospective of the same. Cobham has many capabilities that could be exploited to supply equipments and spares for the MRO (maintenance, repair and overhaul) industry in India. So we used the various reports and predictions available at the websites of Airport Authority of India, Directorate General of Civil Aviation, Ministry of Civil Aviation and websites of various airlines and MRO companies to understand the market dynamics. We came across various difficulties faced by them and also saw various opportunities lurking round the corner. We tried to estimate the fleet size of various airlines and the expected growth in next five years. Also the focus was given on the Non-Scheduled operators as their numbers is rising at a lightening pace. We also had the projections made by Ministry of civil aviation about the growth of passenger volumes in the future, and all the future growths...
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...A1. Airbus is interested in building the A3XX because it did not have any large aircraft to compete with 747-XXX airplanes of Boing. Boing with its 747-xxx aircraft had the monopoly position in very large aircraft market; therefore, Airbus with the building of A3XX wanted to enter the very karge aircraft market. From the other side Airbus was of the beleif that very growing economies would play major role in creating high demand for the VLA in future. One of the other reason of Airbus interest in building A3XX was the effective revenue which could be acheived through A3XX. VLA had a better operating economy over long distanations. The operating cost for the VLA was only 12% higher in compare to 747-xxx airplane but it provided 35% more space. A3XX new design and its 4 engines provides saver flights over long distances. Q2. How many aircraft does Airbus need to sell in order to break even on the investment? Hint: consider all capital providers as a single entity and calculate the break even return to them collectively. To calculate the break-even number of planes calculate the present value of a growing perpetuity if cash flows from plane sales beginning in 2008. Please assume an equity risk premium of 6% in your analysis. A2. Q3. What is the total demand for VLA aircraft. Analyze the sensitivity of demand to small changes in assumptions regarding growth, conversion rates and market share. A3. Q4. How should Boeing respond to...
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...Strategy In this report, it uses PEST analysis to analyse easyJet's global strategic, it related to political, economic, social and technology aspects. Firstly, in the political aspect for easyJet, its opportunities are government allowed it to purchase new aircrafts, and the government may guidance or assistance to easyJet to expand its business. In addition, the relationship between European countries is the element that influence easyJet's business. A good relationship makes EU politically stable, and that helps the economic growth of easyJet. However, along with the changes in political, that also bring threat to easyJet. Such as government made a strict carbon emission limits to detect airlines. And due to this policy, airlines have to face the fines that from the Environment Agency. In July 2013, easyJet made the agreement with Airbus that the shareholders of easyJet they purchase 35 current generation A320 aircraft and all the aircrafts will deliver to easyJet between 2015 to 2017, and 100 new generation A320neo aircrafts will deliver to easyJet between 2017 to 2022. (Essay UK, 2013) Secondly, in the economic aspect, even though the global economy is recession, but easyJet's profit is increasing, it able to offset the increasing fuel cost. And there are two reasons of easyJet can increasing its profit. (1) According to the global economy recession, people are more and more sensitive in price for their consumption, they may pay more attention to find out the most cheaper...
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...ATP required 1,500 hours of total flight time and that the holder of an ATP be at least 23 years of age. Within three years of the passage of the bill The Air Transport pilot certificate (ATP) required for both the captain and the first pilot officer positions be within the three years required by federal Aviation Regulation part 121.The significance of this proposed requirement will play have an important impact on airline hiring practices and all flight training including collegiate training. Many rules and regulations were included in the Extension Act of 2010, such as a Pilots Records Database to provide airlines with fast, electronic access to a pilot's comprehensive record. Information in the database will include: pilot licenses, aircraft ratings, check rides, notices of disapproval, other flight proficiency tests, and State motor vehicle driving records. A Truth in Advertising was also included Mandating Internet websites that sell airline tickets disclose to the purchaser on the first page of the website the air carrier that operates each segment of the flight. Chapter 2 LITERATURE REVIEW Flight 3407, operated by Colgan Air, Inc. became the deadliest major Aviation...
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