What effects did the 2006/2007 smoking ban have on the UK public house industry if any?

Introduction
The following is a report that aims to answer the question ‘What effects did the 2006/2007 smoking ban have on the UK public house industry if any?’ Reaching a thorough well rounded answer that will be developed in the conclusion is the key aim of this investigation. The intention of this report is to include relevant secondary research from a wide spectrum of sources in order to support the aims and objectives of the report, this research be featured in the findings section of the report. Information gathered has been contrived from three sources the internet where I have read through journals and news sources in order to gain high quality reliable data, along with relevant books and also primary research in my own personal observations of being a customer to the pub industry itself over the past 3 years. These 3 separate methods provide a diverse research base these will be credited for in the bibliography section.

Now, an introduction into the smoking ban itself. In chronological he ban was put in effect in Scotland on 26 March 2006, Wales 2 April 2007, Northern Ireland on 30 April 2007 and in England on 1 July 2007. It would be wise to highlight the recession also which hit at the start of 2007.

The report will be structured appropriately with findings, conclusion, and finally a bibliography with any recommendations that may arise upon completion.

Findings
As each of the 4 countries within the UK has different times in which implementation of smoking ban legislation was in effect it would be prudent to contrive information from all 4 countries and compare these statistics in order aid answering the report's question in the conclusion.

Figure 1 demonstrates a 30 year backlog of data relating to the overall number of pubs in the UK, increase/decrease in percentage of these pubs, the cumulative total lost, and the number lost per week. The important data that should be highlighted here are the 2007-2010 years as this is after the smoking ban was introduced and it is clear to see a high drop in percentage of up to 3%. In 2008 the fall was at its highest peak for 30 years at -3.47% with 38 pubs closing a week. The figures seem to be fairly consistent with just over a 1% range between all 4 dates after the ban which shows a steady decline after the smoking ban.

Figure 2 illustrates a more broken down pub closure rate scale for each individual country in comparison to figure 1, it is remarkable how similar the rate of closures are in such correlation, after the first 12 months across all 4 countries the range is a mere percent. With Ireland being more erratic suffering heavy (-7.30%) falls in pubs in the first 12 months but then decreasing slightly but finishing on almost the exact same rate of percentage drop as Scotland.

Figure 3 portrays when and how hard the recession hit the UK, it is synonymous to the smoking ban introduction and the decline in pub closure percentages. Showing a huge dip from a once prosperous growth.

"The expected boom in sales of pub meals as a result of the smoking ban has failed to materialise, according to a report.
More than half of pub landlords questioned reported no change in their food sales.
A third of respondents to The Publican's questionnaire said their food sales had gone up following the ban - but more than one in five complained that their overall sales of food and drink had gone down.
The trade magazine's survey of 303 UK pubs found the average customer spend on food and drink at dinner was £14.86 - a penny less than last year.”

http://news.sky.com/home/business/article/1294269, 2011

“The British Beer and Pub Association (BBPA) say total beer sales for 2007 are down 22% - some seven million pints a day fewer than their peak in 1979.” http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7102937.stm, 2011

This data is contrived from the book Drink and Drug Driving Law which although isn't hard quantative data it aids the report as it provides logic towards another reason to why maybe there may be other variables towards the decline of pubs outside of the smoking ban with the mention of the increased drink-drive limit that exists over the UK which has led to more and more of the UK population resorting to drinking at home rather than the past culture of drinking at a pub.

Conclusion

Weighing up the research above it is clear that there have been many changes to the pub industry over the past 5 years; however some are more influential than others. It is evidently clear that the smoking ban is a major player in the increase of pub closures across the UK. But firstly the global recession first showed a dip in UK economic growth in the second quarter (figure 3) this timing was in tune with the smoking ban introduction and the two can be linked together as with the recession comes a decrease in disposable income and during this period luxuries such as going to the pub were not as popular with UK citizens. This gives reason to think the recession played a considerable part in the decline of the pub industry. However many believe the recession only came into effect in October 2008 2 years after the ban in Scotland and Ireland who experienced an instant downfall in pub closure in first 12 months (figure 1) which provides solid evidence that the recession played a part but not as much as may be at first glance even with the ever so similar pattern in dates with Wales and England.

It was predicted that due to the absence of smoke in pubs that there would be an increase not a decrease for the industry however the results in figures 1 and 2 disprove this fact. It was thought that no smoke would lead to more food being sold and people spending more money on drinks.

To finally conclude it is evident the smoking ban has had a dramatic on the pub industry with undeniable statistics being the main reason for this conclusion and the disregarding of many other variables that many thought were the perpetrators for the fall of business within this sector. Statistics like the 11% fall in the number of pubs in Scotland and Northern Ireland after 2 years of the ban being legislated with steady increases looking likely to proceed just goes to show the nature of what this piece of legislation has done to the industry as a whole. The impact has seen thousands of jobs lost within the industry (figure 5). The overriding hazardous effect of the smoking ban is the wide scale consistent closure of pubs across the UK, at one point during 2008 8 pubs were being closed a week doubling the previous decade in just one year.

Appendix

Figure 1.

Year Total number of pubs in the UK % change on year Cumulative total lost Cumulative total lost under each party Number lost per week
1980 69,000
1981 68,500 -0.72 500 500 10
1982 67,800 -1.02 1,200 1,200 13
1983 67,400 -0.59 1,600 1,600 8
1984 66,700 -1.04 2,300 2,300 13
1985 66,500 -0.3 2,500 2,500 4
1986 66,200 -0.45 2,800 2,800 6
1987 65,700 -0.76 3,300 3,300 10
1988 65,200 -0.76 3,800 3,800 10
1989 64,100 -1.69 4,900 4,900 21
1990 63,500 -0.94 5,500 5,500 12
1991 62,200 -2.05 6,800 6,800 25
1992 61,600 -0.96 7,400 7,400 12
1993 61,000 -0.97 8,000 8,000 12
1994 60,700 -0.49 8,300 8,300 6
1995 61,000 0.49 8,000 8,000 -6
1996 60,800 -0.33 8,200 8,200 4
1997 60,600 -0.33 8,400 8,400 4
1998 61,000 0.66 8,000 -400 -8
1999 61,500 0.82 7,500 -900 -10
2000 60,800 -1.14 8,200 -200 13
2001 60,700 -0.16 8,300 -100 2
2002 60,100 -0.99 8,900 500 12
2003 59,400 -1.16 9,600 1,200 13
2004 59,000 -0.67 10,000 1,600 8
2005 58,600 -0.68 10,400 2,000 8
2006 58,200 -0.68 10,800 2,400 8
2007 56,791 -2.42 12,209 3,809 27
2008 54,818 -3.47 14,182 5,782 38
2009 53,466 -2.47 15,534 7,134 26
2010 52,000 -2.74 17,000 8,600 28

Figure 2. Figure 3.

Figure 4.

Figure 5.
"Over 40,000 jobs were lost in the pubs and clubs sector in the five years to 2008" http://www.amendthesmokingban.com/our_case/ Recommendations

Upon reflection from completing this report the smoking ban has had a colossal impact on the drop in the number of pubs across the whole of the United Kingdom. The health impacts have not been considered for the main part of the report as it was solely on the effect on the pub industry however if these were considered from research contrived throughout this investigation and personal thoughts taken into account. A recommendation would steer towards the ban be kept in place for the greater good of the health of the population and long term stability of the economy.

Bibliography
Websites

• http://www.amendthesmokingban.com/our_case/
• http://news.sky.com/home/business/article/1294269
• http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7102937.stm
• http://www.ash.org.uk/
• moodle.nptc.ac.uk/mod/forum/discuss.php?d=1169
• www.businessballs.com
• http://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/news-articles/0707/07072406

Books

• Dransfield, R. & Needham, D. (2004) Business for foundation degrees and higher awards. Oxford: Heinemann

• House of Commons: Transport Committee, (2010) Drink and Drug Driving Law, HC 460