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Will Syria Be the Next Iraq? - a Thematic Analysis

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WILL!SYRIA!BE!THE!NEXT!IRAQ?! > A!look!at!what!USA’s!move!in!Syria!should!be! by! Deep!Bhatia! Student!ID:!500128395! September!24th,!2013! ! !

1! ! Table&of&Contents& 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 ! Introduction...................................................................................................................................1!! Methodology.................................................................................................................................1!! Summary!of!the!empirical!findings................................................................................................2! References.....................................................................................................................................5! Appendix........................................................................................................................................8!! !

2! !

WILL&SYRIA&BE&THE&NEXT&IRAQ?&
Introduction& What!began!as!a!relatively!minor!civil!uprising!in!Damascus,!Syria!in!March!2011!as!an!influence!of!Arab& Spring!(wave!of!demonstrations!and!protests!in!the!Arab!world)!has!now!escalated!to!a!full>blown!civil! war,!with!an!alarming!number!of!deaths,!and!the!news!of!chemical!weapons.!The!war!initially!began!as!a! protest!from!the!masses!against!the!allegedly>corrupt!regime,!led!by!Bashar!Al>Assad,!whose!main! demand!was!that!he!step!down!from!his!post;!however,!recent!tolls!have!estimated!that!over!100,000! people!have!been!killed!over!the!course!of!the!past!two!years.(AFP,!2013).!In!addition,!over!2!million! refugees!have!fled!the!country,!with!another!4!million!who!have!been!displaced!–!simply!because!they! are!caught!in!the!crossfire!of!the!existing!regime,!and!the!various!rebel!groups!who!are!trying!to!oust!it! (Al!Jazeera,!2013).! Even!though!the!crisis!has!been!worsening!for!more!than!a!year!and!a!half,!the!leaders!of!the!nations!of! the!world!started!discussing!the!option!of!actually!taking!action!only!after!the!attacks!on!August!21,! 2013!in!the!Ghouta!suburbs!near!Damascus,!when!over!1300!people!were!killed!as!a!result!of!a!chemical! attack!with!Sarin!gas!–!the!blame!for!which!was!mostly!attributed!to!Al>Assad’s!regime!–!both!by!the! Western!World,!and!the!Arab!League!(Noueihed!L,!2013).!As!a!result,!amid!widespread!condemnation! from!the!entire!world,!the!United!Nations!(UN)!published!its!findings!that!"the!environmental,!chemical! and!medical!samples,!we!have!collected,!provide!clear!and!convincing!evidence!that!surface>to>surface! rockets!containing!the!nerve!agent!sarin!were!used!in!Ein!Tarma,!Moadamiyah!and!Zamalka!in!the! Ghouta!area!of!Damascus".(The!Guardian,!2013)!Despite!Russia’s!claims!that!the!UN!report!was!biased! (although!the!report!did!not!assign!blame!for!that!assault!to!either!side!in!Syria’s!civil!war,!analyses!of! some!of!the!evidence!it!presented!point!directly!at!elite!military!forces!loyal!to!Syria’s!president)!(Myers,! 2013),!US!President!Barack!Obama!urged!the!Congress!to!consider!military!action!against!Syria.! (Shoichet!!&!Watkins,!2013).!Consequently,!an!alternative!was!presented!by!Russia!(and!agreed!upon!by! Al>Assad)!to!avoid!war,!which!stated!that!the!Syrian!regime!would!submit!an!inventory!of!their!chemical! weapons!to!the!Organization!for!the!Prohibition!of!Chemical!Weapons!(OPCW)!and!was!completed!on! September!20,!2013.!(Daragahi,!Carnegy,!&!Dombey,!2013)! As!the!civil!war!continues!(with!the!regime!being!supported!and!supplied!with!arms!by!Russia!and!Iran),! the!world’s!remaining!superpower!faces!a!dilemma!which!can!indeed!change!the!course!of!history!–! what!should!the!US!do!in!the!case!of!Syria?!! Methodology& This!paper!has!employed!two!methodologies!to!answer!the!research!question:!data!collection!and!data! analysis.!For!the!purposes!of!data!collection,!various!articles!from!different!sources!were!collected!to! achieve!heterogeneity.!These!sources!included!The!Washington!Post,!Council!on!Foreign!Relations,!BBC,! Policy!MIC,!Al!Jazeera!America,!Huffington!Post!and!The!Guardian.!For!the!purposes!of!data!analysis,!the! method!of!thematic!analysis!based!on!inductive!reasoning!was!used.!The!articles!were!observed!to!

3! ! monitor!common!themes,!with!the!various!empirical!claims!extracted,!along!with!the!evidence! presented!by!each!author!to!back!up!their!claims.!! All!articles!referenced!have!been!checked!for!validity!(with!reference!to!current!events)!and!deal!with! Syrian!crisis!in!a!well>researched!manner.!The!following!were!the!various!themes!presented!in!the! articles!(see!Appendix!A!for!full!data!analysis):! Themes& 1. USA!should!back!the!UN!to!solve!the!Syria!crisis!through!diplomacy,!but!shouldnt!be!afraid!to! threaten!military!strikes!if!Syria!doesnt!follow!the!UN's!sanctions.! 2. The!USA!should!try!to!conduct!'financial!warfare'!against!the!regime!in!Syria,!and!convince!its! allies!to!do!the!same.! 3. The!US!should!launch!a!limited!military!strike!on!the!regime!in!Syria! 4. The!US!shouldn't!sit!idle!and!do!nothing!>!something!must!be!done.! 5. The!US!should!probably!do!nothing!>!certainly!nothing!in!terms!of!use!of!military!force! 6. The!US!should!negotiate!and!partner!up!with!Iran!to!solve!the!Syria!crisis! 7. The!US!should!adopt!a!'wait!and!see'!approach!with!reference!to!Syria!signing!the!Chemical! Weapons!Convention!(CWC)!

!
Summary&of&Empirical&Findings:& An! analysis! of! the! various! articles! referenced! for! the! purpose! of! this! thematic! analysis! reveals! that! various!themes!have!two!key!informants!supporting!the!claim!–!that!the!US!should:! a. b. c. d. Back!the!UN!to!solve!the!Syria!crisis!through!diplomacy.! Launch!a!limited!military!strike!on!the!regime!in!Syria.! The!US!should!not!get!involved!–!and!certainly!not!use!military!force.! Negotiate!with!Iran!to!solve!the!Syria!crisis.!

With! the! theme! of! using! diplomacy,! the! articles! suggested! that! the! given! the! backlash! that! US! faced! after!their!invasion!of!Iraq,!they!would!face!extreme!pressure!–!from!both,!externally!from!other!nations! as!well!as!internally!–!in!case!they!decided!to!use!military!force!to!intervene!in!Syria.!Especially!with!the! new!proposal!suggested!by!Russia,!the!US!needs!to!explore!all!avenues!of!peaceful!resolution!before!it! considers!military!involvement.!In!addition,!the!articles!suggest!that!despite!its!reluctance!to!do!so,!the! US!needs!to!collaborate!with!Russia!and!Iran!(usually!considered!foes!and!not!friends!of!the!US),!to!have! any! practical! chance! of! arriving! at! a! peaceful! resolution! to! the! conflict.! As! Ezra! Klein! states! “This! (diplomatic! resolution)! requires! a! two>fold! effort! lacking! to! date:! developing! a! realistic! compromise! political!offer!as!well!as!genuinely!reaching!out!to!both!Russia!and!Iran!in!a!manner!capable!of!eliciting! their!interest!>!rather!than!investing!in!a!prolonged!conflict!that!has!a!seemingly!bottomless!capacity!to! escalate.”!(Klein,!2013).!An!important!point!to!note!is!that!the!solution!developed!by!the!UN!should!be! binding!on!Syria,!including!the!“arte!blanche!power!to!inspect!any!Syrian!facility!at!any!time,!as!well!as! sufficient!physical!security!to!travel!safely!in!a!civil!war!situation.”!(Patrick,!2013)!–!failure!to!conform!to! which!should!result!in!the!threat!of!military!strikes!against!the!regime!in!Syria.!

4! ! Next,! another! theme! floated! by! authors! is! that! diplomacy! is! futile,! and! that! the! US! should! launch! a! military! strike! on! Al>Assad>owned! strategic! targets! in! Syria.! The! authors! claim! that! this! is! a! necessary! evil,!and!that!collateral!damage!and!civilian!casualties!can!be!minimized!if!the!US!uses!its!renowned!air! strikes!against!precise!targets.!As!Frydenborg!argues,!!"Taking!many!of!these!weapons!systems!out!and! forcing!Assad!to!hide!much!of!the!rest!for!fear!of!their!being!destroyed!will!obviously!lead!to!far!fewer! civilian!casualties!in!the!long!and!short!runs,!and!it!will!be!harder!for!the!regime!to!kill!as!many!people!as! easily!and!as!quickly."!(Frydenborg,!2013).!The!articles!also!argue!that! air!strikes!will!not!only!act!as!a! deterrent!to!the!regime!in!Syria!to!commit!the!current!atrocities,!but!will!also!strike!fear!in!the!Syrian! allies!who!are!providing!them!with!ammunition!and!weapons.!! Thirdly,!there!are!those!who!argue,!given!the!past!history!of!the!US!intervening!in!such!situations,!the! US!should!not!get!involved!in!the!Syrian!crisis!–!and!certainly!not!with!any!military!force.!They!feel!that! any!intervention!will!only!result!in!dist!

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References&

Abrams, E. (2011, October). American Options in Syria. Council on Foreign Relations. Retrieved from www.cfr.org/syria/american-options-syria/p26226 AFP. US: Assad responsible even if didn't order gas attack - FRANCE 24. (2013, August 28). Retrieved from http://www.france24.com/en/20130828-us-assad-responsible-even-didnt-order-gas-attack AFP (2013, September 1). NGO puts Syria toll above 110,000 - Khaleej Times. Retrieved from http://www.khaleejtimes.com/kt-article-display1.asp?section=middleeast&xfile=data/middleeast/2013/September/middleeast_September6.xml Cook, S. A. (2013, August 30). In trying to help Syria, an intervention would destroy it - The Washington Post. Retrieved from http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/in-trying-to-help-syria-anintervention-would-destroy-it/2013/08/30/ee0b2ab4-1014-11e3-8cdd-bcdc09410972_story.html Daragahi , B., Carnegy , H., & Dombey , D. (2013, September 20). Retrieved from www.ft.com/cms/s/170915e2-21e1-11e3-bb6400144feab7de,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs %2F0%2F170915e2-21e1-11e3-bb6400144feab7de.html%3Fsiteedition%3Duk&siteedition=uk&_i_referer=#axzz2frrTh9tL E. Shoichet , C., & Watkins, T. (2013, August 31). Obama urges military action against Syria but will seek Congress' OK - CNN.com. Retrieved from http://www.cnn.com/2013/08/31/world/meast/syria-civil-war/index.html Frydenborg, B. (2013, September 19). Syria War News: Inside the Vortex Of Death That Swallows All. Policy MIC. Retrieved from http://www.policymic.com/articles/63907/syria-war-news-insidethe-vortex-of-death-that-swallows-all Frydenborg, B. (2013, September 22). Will the U.S. Attack Syria? It Could Save More Lives Than You

6! ! Think. Policy MIC. Retrieved from http://www.policymic.com/articles/63925/will-the-u-sattack-syria-it-could-save-more-lives-than-you-think Frydenborg, B. (n.d.). Will the U.S. Attack Syria? Why It's Time to Help Moderate Rebels, and Get Assad Out. Policy MIC. Retrieved from http://www.policymic.com/articles/63937/will-the-u-s-attacksyria-why-it-s-time-to-help-moderate-rebels-and-get-assad-out Jazeera , A. (2013, September 3). UN: Syrian refugee numbers cross two million - Middle East - Al Jazeera English. Retrieved from http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/09/20139364935830495.html Kinzer, S. (2013, September 4). To resolve the Syria crisis, the US must negotiate with Iran | Al Jazeera America. Retrieved from http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2013/9/4/to-resolve-thesyriacrisistheusmustnegotiatewithiran.html Klein, E. (September 2). Obama`s proposed Syria strikes are ?largely divorced from the interests of the Syrian people?. Washington Post. Retrieved from http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/09/02/obamas-proposed-syriastrikes-largely-divorced-from-the-interests-of-the-syrian-people/ Lee Myers , S., & Gladstone, R. (2013, September 18). Russia Calls U.N. Chemical Report on Syria Biased - NYTimes.com. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/19/world/middleeast/syria.html?_r=2& Noueihed L. Arab League blames Syria's Assad for chemical attack| Reuters. (2013, August 27). Retrieved from http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/27/us-syria-crisis-leagueidUSBRE97Q0NI20130827 Owen D. (2013, September 24). Diplomatic Opening for Iran Can Help End Syria Crisis | Lord David Owen. Huffington Post. Retrieved from http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/lord-david-owen/iran-

7! ! syria-intervention_b_3982253.html Patrick S. M. (2013, September 23). The Internationalist » High Stakes UN Diplomacy on Syria and Iran. Council on Foreign Relations. Retrieved from http://blogs.cfr.org/patrick/2013/09/23/highstakes-un-diplomacy-on-syria-and-iran/ Robertson QC, G. (2013, August 29). BBC News - Viewpoints: Is there legal basis for military intervention in Syria? BBC. Retrieved from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-23847169 Syria: a path worth exploring | Comment is free | The Guardian. (2013, September 10). The Guardian. Retrieved from http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/sep/10/syria-a-path-worthexploring Weaver , M., & McCarthy , T. (2013, September 16). Syria crisis: UN inspectors submit chemical weapons report - live updates | World news | theguardian.com. Retrieved from http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/16/un-inspectors-submit-syria-chemical-weaponsreport-live Zhou, D. (2013, January). Syria Civil War: The U.S. Has Nothing to Gain By Intervening. Policy MIC. Retrieved from http://www.policymic.com/debates/20959/syria-civil-war-the-u-s-has-nothingto-gain-by-intervening

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Legend: Seperates-various-themes Seperates-different-articles-within-the-same-theme Theme# Source 1 Council/on/ Foreign/ Relations Author Title /Author's/Claim Emperical/examples/of/claim Stewart/M./ High/Stakes/ USA/should/back/the/UN/to/solve/the/Syria/crisis/ Patrick "By-dint-of-fortune-as-much-as-strategy,-President-Obama-arrives-in-New-York-withUN/Diplomacy/ through/diplomacy,-but-shouldnt-be-afraid-toon/Syria/and/ threaten-military-strikes-if-Syria-doesnt-follow-the- tentative-diplomatic-paths-out-of-these-two-longDrunning-crises.""Obama-will-frame-them-collectively-as-the-primary-security-challenge-facing-the-UNIran UN's-sanctions. in-the-twentyDfirst-century:-stemming-and-reversing-the-spread-of-weapons-of-massdestruction-(WMD)." "The-president-should-be-adamant-that-the-international-inspection-team-have-carteblanche-power-to-inspect-any-Syrian-facility-at-any-time,-as-well-as-sufficient-physicalsecurity-to-travel-safely-in-a-civil-war-situation."Obama’s/ proposed/ Syria/strikes/ are/‘largely/ divorced/from/ the/interests/ of/the/Syrian/ people’ The/USA/should/try/to/conduct/'financial/ warfare'/against/the/regime/in/Syria,/and/ convince/its/allies/to/do/the/same. Author's/evidence URL http://blogs.cfr.org/patrick/ 2013/09/23/highDstakesDunD diplomacyDonDsyriaDandD iran/

"..he-should-insist-on-a-resolution-that-authorizes-coercion-if-Syria-fails-to-come-clean-on-its-CWholdings-or-begins-to-play-a-game-of-cat-and-mouse-with-the-weapons-inspectors." "President-Obama-must-lay-down-a-clear-marker-that-the-United-States-remains-prepared-to-launchmeaningful-punitive-strikes-if-the-Syrian-government-balks-at-surrendering-its-CW."

Washington/ Post Ezra/Klein 2 Council/on/ Foreign/ Relations

Whether-or-not-the-U.S.-chooses-to-launch-a-military-offensive,-its-responsibilityshould-be-to-try-to-optimize-chances-of-a-diplomatic-breakthrough.-This-requires-aA-military-attack-will-not,-nor-can-it,-be-met-with-even-minimal-international-consensus;-in-this-sense,twoDfold-effort-lacking-to-date:-developing-a-realistic-compromise-political-offer-asthe-attempt-to-come-up-with-solid-evidence-of-regime-use-of-chemical-weapons,-however-necessary,well-as-genuinely-reaching-out-to-both-Russia-and-Iran-in-a-manner-capable-of-eliciting- also-is-futile.-Given-the-false-pretenses-that-informed-the-2003-U.S.-invasion-of-Iraq-and,-since-then,their-interest-D-rather-than-investing-in-a-prolonged-conflict-that-has-a-seeminglyregional-and-international-polarisation-coupled-with-the-dynamics-of-the-Syrian-conflict-itself,-proofbottomless-capacity-to-escalate. put-forward-by-the-U.S.-will-be-insufficient-to-sway-disbelievers-and-skepticism-will-be-widespread.

http://www.washingtonpos t.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/ 2013/09/02/obamasD proposedDsyriaDstrikesD largelyDdivorcedDfromDtheD interestsDofDtheDsyrianD people/

American/ Elliot/Abrams Options/in/ Syria

"A-second-step-should-be-to-turn-the-business-community-against-the-regime." "The-United-States-is-"sanctioned-out"-when-it-comes-to-Syria;-there-is-almost-notrade-or-investment.-It-is-critical-that-the-European-Union-(EU)-cut-off-the-Syrianeconomy,-and-indeed-this-is-beginning-to-happen.-Europe-bought-95-percent-ofSyria's-oil-exports,-thereby-providing-the-regime-with-about-oneDthird-of-its-overallhard-currency-earnings,-but-the-EU-has-now-banned-the-importation-of-Syrian-oil-and- The-closer-and-faster-the-EU-moves-toward-a-total-ban-on-trade-with-Syria-the-better,-as-both-theany-new-investments-in-Syria's-oil-industry." signal-and-actual-damage-to-Syria's-economic-elites-will-be-greater. "The-wider-U.S.-financial-sanctions-are,-the-larger-the-justification-for-the-Gulf-states-to-tell-their"They-should-also-press-the-Gulf-oil-producers-to-stop-all-further-investment-in-Syria." banks-to-avoid-Damascus." 3 Policy/Mic Brian/ Frydenborg

http://www.cfr.org/syria/a The-United-States-and-its-partners-must-lead-them-to-view-the-Assads-as-an-irredeemable-liabilitywhose-continuation-in-power-will-only-bring-more-of-the-economic-pain-Syria-is-already-experiencing.- mericanDoptionsD syria/p26226 Already-this-year,-foreign-direct-investment-and-tourism-are-both-down-by-more-than-half,-andexports-by-twoDthirds.-If-Assad-stays-in-power,-they-must-come-to-understand,-this-will-only-getworse.

The/US/should/launch/a/limited/military/strike/on/ "So-rather-than-tanks-and-advanced-weaponry-and-equipment-that-could-beeventually-turned-on-the-moderates,-what-moderate-rebels-really-need-is-U.S.-air"Chances-are,-a-lighter-yet-significant-increase-in-American-intervention-will-lead-to-a-better-resultWill/the/U.S./ the/regime/in/Syria support.-Air-support-like-the-types-of-strikes-that-were-on-the-table-before-this-latest- than-the-nightmarish-vortex-of-violence-the-whole-region-will-very-likely-become-without-it." Attack/Syria?/ It/Could/Save/ "Jets,-tanks,-and-artillery-are-hard-to-hide-and-can-be-taken-out-with-precisionMore/Lives/ weapons-that-would-inflict-a-minimum-of-collateral-damage-or-civilian-casualties,-andThan/You/ many-if-not-all-could-be-launched-from-Navy-ships-or-from-airspace-over-the-sea-since- -"Taking-many-of-these-weapons-systems-out-and-forcing-Assad-to-hide-much-of-the-rest-for-fear-ofThink most-of-Syria’s-main-population-areas-—-where-the-fighting-is-occurring-—-are-not-far- their-being-destroyed-will-obviously-lead-to-far-fewer-civilian-casualties-in-the-long-and-short-runs,from-the-coast." and-it-will-be-harder-for-the-regime-to-kill-as-many-people-as-easily-and-as-quickly."

http://www.policymic.com/ articles/63925/willDtheDuDsD attackDsyriaDitDcouldDsaveD moreDlivesDthanDyouDthink

Policy/Mic

Brian/ Frydenborg

Will/the/U.S./ Attack/Syria?/ Why/It's/Time/ to/Help/ Moderate/ Rebels,/and/ Get/Assad/Out Viewpoints:/Is/ there/legal/ basis/for/ military/ intervention/ in/Syria?

"This-would-help-protect-civilians-and-establish-humanitarian-safe-zones,-aiding-internally-displaced-"..if-active,-coordinated,-close-air-support-is-given-to-the-moderate-rebels-againstpersons-and-allowing-some-refugees-to-come-back-to-Syria,-alleviating-pressure-on-Syria’s-neighbors.regime-forces,-the-moderates-can-make-gains-against-the-regime-more-effectively-and- The-same-close-air-support-can-be-withheld-from-Islamic-extremists,-leaving-them-and-the-regime-tomore-rapidly-while-increasing-the-territory-under-their-control."weaken-each-other." "A-noDfly-zone-over-Syria-could-be-established,-with-much-of-Assad’s-air-defenses-"A-noDfly-zone-would-also-cut-off-Russian-air-delivery-of-weapons,-ammunition,-and-supplies-to-the(which-Israel-was-able-to-work-around-in-May)-taken-out-with-relatively-little-risk,Syrian-regime,-including-the-parts-that-keep-Assad’s-air-force-functional.-Ruling-the-skies-over-Syriathough-massive-firepower-would-be-required." would-allow-the-U.S.-and-its-allies-to-truly-dictate-the-flow,-and-choose-the-victors,-of-battle."

http://www.policymic.com/ articles/63937/willDtheDuDsD attackDsyriaDwhyDitDsDtimeD toDhelpDmoderateDrebelsD andDgetDassadDout

BBC

Geoffrey/ Robertson/ QC

any-force-used-must-be-proportionate;-it-must-have-the-objective-of-deterring-future-use-of-poisonThe-world-cannot-ban-chemical-weapons-and-then-sit-idly-by-while-a-state-uses-them- gas-by-the-Syrian-state.-That-means-very-limited-military-action,-probably-to-close-air-bases,-with-the- http://www.bbc.co.uk/new to-kill-civilians. threat-of-more-extensive-action-to-come,-if-there-is-further-use-of-poison-gas-by-the-state. s/worldD23847169

4 Policy/Mic

Brian/ Frydenborg

The/US/shouldn't/sit/idle/and/do/nothing/U/ something/must/be/done. Syria/War/ News:/Inside/ the/Vortex/Of/ Death/That/ Swallows/All

The-war-in-Syria-has-alreadygotten-extremely-ugly-and-brutal-on-all-sides.

Ethnic-cleansing,-massacres,-and-terrorism-will-all-continue-to-increase.

Should-these-trends-continue-unabated,-the-horror-of-Syria-will-be-magnified-exponentially-andbecome-a-vortex-that-sucks-in-the-whole-region. -As-groups-feel-more-and-more-threatened,-they-will-take-increasingly-extreme-measures-for-bothhttp://www.policymic.com/ their-defense-and-to-enact-revenge.-This-will-in-turn-just-feed-more-violence,-create-more-internally- articles/63907/syriaDwarD displaced-persons-and-refugees,-and-will-very-likely-lead-to-radicalization-within-refugee-camps-across- newsDinsideDtheDvortexDofD the-border deathDthatDswallowsDall

5 Policy/Mic

Dillon/Zhou

Syria/Civil/ War:/The/U.S./ Has/Nothing/ to/Gain/By/ The/US/should/probably/do/nothing/U/certainly/ Intervening nothing/in/terms/of/use/of/military/force

"The-Syrians-blame-the-U.S.-for-the-40,000-deaths-during-their-21Dmonth-civil-war." "Some-of-the-Syrian-opposition-factions-are-made-up-of-antiDU.S.-militants-affiliated-with-terroristorganizations." "Military-intervention-will-be-too-costly-for-the-U.S.,-given-the-ongoing-downsizing-of-the-military-and-The-U.S.-has-little-to-gain-from-military-intervention-in-Syria-given-that-we’ve-waited- the-strength-of-the-Assad-forces." too-long,-the-risks-and-costs-are-too-high,-and-we-still-haven’t-settled-our-accounts"The-Libya-Intervention-has-taught-us-that-military-intervention-has-hidden-costs." from-the-Libya-affair. "The-majority-of-the-American-people-are-opposed-to-U.S.-military-intervention-in-Syria."

http://www.policymic.com/ debates/20959/syriaDcivilD warDtheDuDsDhasDnothingDtoD gainDbyDintervening

Washington/ Steven/A./ Post Cook

In/trying/to/ help/Syria,/an/ intervention/ would/destroy/ it

This-view-may-be-principled,-but-the-Obama-administration-and-its-allies-shouldunderstand-that-even-limited-intervention-would-hasten-Syria’s-demise.

There-is-another-concern-that-should-figure-into-the-president’s-calculations:-Themissile-strikes-the-White-House-is-contemplating-would-advance-Syria’s-dissolution.

The-complex-and-dreadful-evolution-of-the-conflict-has-shaken-the-moral-and-strategic-justificationsfor-intervention,-even-a-short-one-focused-on-punishing-the-regime-for-its-use-of-chemical-weaponsand-deterring-future-use. Assad-would-remain-defiant-in-the-face-of-an-attack.-It-is-not-as-if-he-is-constrained-now,-but-he-wouldprobably-step-up-the-violence-both-to-exert-control-within-his-country-and-to-demonstrate-that-theUnited-States-and-its-allies-cannot-intimidate-him.-At-the-same-time,-the-regime’s-Iranian-patrons-andHezbollah-supporters-would-increase-their-investment-in-the-conflict,-meaning-more-weapons-andmore-fighters-pouring-into-Syria-—-resulting-in-more-atrocities.-And-on-the-other-side,-Syrianopposition-groups-would-welcome-a-steady-stream-of-foreign-fighters-who-care-more-about-killingAlawites-and-Shiites-than-the-fate-of-the-country.-This-environment-would-heighten-Syria’ssubstantial-sectarian,-ethnic-and-political-divisions,-pulling-the-country-apart.

http://www.washingtonpos t.com/opinions/inDtryingDtoD helpDsyriaDanDinterventionD wouldDdestroyD it/2013/08/30/ee0b2ab4D 1014D11e3D8cddD bcdc09410972_story.html

6 Al/Jazeera

Stephen/ Kinzer

To/resolve/the/ Syria/crisis,/ the/US/must/ negotiate/ The/US/should/negotiate/and/partner/up/with/ with/Iran Iran/to/solve/the/Syria/crisis

Moderate-measures-have-failed-to-resolve-the-Syrian-crisis.-A-more-radical-optionneed-not-be-military.-Far-bolder,-and-far-more-likely-to-lead-to-a-breakthrough-towardpeace,-would-be-a-decision-by-the-United-States-to-accept-Iran-as-a-negotiatingThe-clearest-is-that-the-United-States-and-Iran,-though-often-rivals,-have-urgent-security-interests-inpartner. common.-Together-they-could-do-far-more-to-achieve-those-goals-than-either-can-alone Look-at-a-map-of-the-region:-Iran-is-the-big-country-right-in-the-middle.-Its-cultural-and-politicalThird-is-that-no-longDterm-stability-in-the-Middle-East-is-possible-without-theinfluence-has-been-a-dominant-fact-of-regional-life-for-thousands-of-years.-Freezing-it-out-of-peacecooperation-of-Iran.processes-almost-guarantees-that-those-processes-will-fail

http://america.aljazeera.co m/articles/2013/9/4/toD resolveDtheD syriacrisistheusmustnegotia tewithiran.html

Huffinton/ Post

Lord/David/ Owen

Diplomatic/ Opening/for/ Iran/Can/Help/ End/Syria/ Crisis

The-reason-is-simple:-realpolitik-based-on-four-facts.-Iran-is-involved-already-on-the-ground-with-its- http://www.huffingtonpost. elite-Revolutionary-Guard.-Iran-helps-finance-RussianDmade-arms-for-Syria.-Iran-has-a-crucial-influence- co.uk/lordDdavidDowen/iranD on-Hezbollah,-the-Shiite-fighters-based-in-Lebanon-who-are-also-on-the-ground-in-Syria.-Iran,-as-a-ShiaD syriaD -The-crucial-step-is-for-the-US-president-to-make-it-clear-to-the-Iranian-president-that- majority-country,-is-also-close-in-religious-terms-to-the-Alawite-minority-in-Syria,-from-whom-theintervention_b_3982253.ht Iran-would-be-welcome-to-participate-in-a-Middle-East-conference-on-Syria.Assad-regime,-first-the-father-and-now-the-son,-draws-its-strength. ml

(editorial/U/ 7 The/Guardian unsigned)

http://www.theguardian.co Syria:/a/path/ The/US/should/adopt/a/'wait/and/see'/approach/ "...if-Syria-signs-the-CWC,-and-it-said-it-would,-a-procedure-will-be-put-in-place-that-is-more-thorough- m/commentisfree/2013/se worth/ with/reference/to/Syria/signing/the/Chemical/ We-could-swiftly-reach-the-point,-if-we-have-not-got-there-already,-where-it-is-not-in- and-more-targeted-at-Syria's-chemical-weapons-stock-than-any-military-action,-barring-full-scalep/10/syriaDaDpathDworthD exploring Weapons/Convention/(CWC) international-interests-for-any-side-to-win. invasion,-could-achieve." exploring

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