The Conflict
Summary:
In April of 2013, The Yemen Post published a story about an oil conflict rising between Saudi Arabia and Yemen. The Egyptian newspaper, al-Masry al-Yom, quoted in the story, refers to the conflict as the “Yemen - Saudi Arabia new Oil conflict” (Yemen Post) implying preexisting disputes between the two countries regarding the extraction of natural resources. Until 2012, Yemen's officials embraced its country's world-wide image as the poorest country in the Arabian Peninsula with depleted natural resources. However, starting with the resignation of then president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, the discovery of large petrol deposits in earth pockets worth up to several billion dollars were made public. Yemen's close neighbor, Saudi Arabia, the superpower of oil exports in the region, is becoming more uneasy, especially after rough estimates predicting that soon Yemen could be “home to much of the world's oil and gas resources, maybe just as much as Saudi Arabia itself”(Yemen Post). Experts from Yemen Post are also speculating that the newly discovered fortune could be the answer to Yemen's current unemployment rate, poverty, illiteracy and other problems. With vast natural resources, arable lands, key geographical location and military potential, Yemen could soon challenge the superpower of Saudi Arabia in the region. The disputes over borders between the two countries dating back to the Saudi-Yemen war in 1934 could soon resurface especially with Saudi Arabia resuming its construction of the fence along the Yemen border (Yemen Post).
Current Situation in the Region: The shared history of violence between Yemen and Saudi Arabia is already resurfacing with public acts of violence. In May of 2013, 5 Yemenis were executed in Saudi Arabia for committing robberies and “their bodies were left hanging in public following the execution in the south-western town of Jizan, near the Yemen border” (BBC News). In turn in Yemen, unidentified armed groups have been performing acts of terrorism against the oil pipelines, and in some cases oil flow is disrupted all together. Due to the attacks, the government experienced more than $1 billion of losses in 2012 (The Daily Star).
Possible Future Consequences: The current strain on the Saudi-Yemen relations has a significant impact on the Yemeni people. The impoverished country of Yemen highly relies on its neighbor, Saudi Arabia, and their relationship is often compared to that of US and Mexico:” Saudi Arabia is an important source of financial remittances for impoverished families south of the border from family members working in the north” (Young). With Saudi Arabia being threatened by the current discovery of oil sources in Yemen, Saudi Arabia is tightening its labor policy, especially of illegal foreign labor coming from Yemen. Looking at the conflict more globally, the dispute could affect the world oil market as Saudi Arabia is the second largest oil exporter in the world with 8.3 million barrels (Zelman). The conflict could evolve into another boarder dispute and affect the oil production and exports thus potentially resembling the oil crisis of 1973.
Geographical Context
Terrain/Natural Resources: Both countries are located in the Arabian Peninsula, the largest in the world of 3,237,500 sq. km (CIA Factbook). Yemen and Saudi Arabia both share very harsh, dry climates with high temperatures which are mainly dominated by the sandy, uninhabited dessert terrains. Arable land in Saudi Arabia is only 1.45 % and permanent crops account for 0.11% of the land while in Yemen arable land is also very limited with 2.2% and 0.55% being permanent crops (CIA Factbook Yemen, Saudi Arabia). Natural hazards such as sandstorms and dust storms as well as volcanism also make farming and agriculture very difficult thus both countries heavily rely on the extraction of natural resources. Both countries have rich petroleum, natural gas, iron ore, gold and copper deposits with Saudi Arabia being the second largest oil exporter in the world (Zelman).
Location:
The region is surrounded by the Red Sea, Arabian Sea, Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman and the Gulf of Aden making it a key location for trade. Yemen is located in the south-western corner of the peninsula with access to the Bab-el-Mandeb, a strait between Arabian Peninsula and Africa, which is “one of the world's most important shipping lanes, through which an estimated 3.5 million barrels of oil passed daily in 2010” (EIA). Saudi Arabia has access to a long coastline of the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf which also gives the country a great leverage on shipping especially the crude oil through the Suez Canal and Persian Gulf ( CIA Factbook: Saudi Arabia).
Geographical Effects on the Conflict: The geographical location of both, Yemen and Saudi Arabia, has a significant influence on the current oil conflict. Since both countries have a limited land availability for agriculture and dessert terrain, abundant natural resources cause both countries to rely on an oil-based economies For example, 80% of Saudi Arabia's budget revenues and 45% of the GDP can be accounted by the petroleum sector (CIA Factbook, Saudi Arabia). Yemen is a low income country that heavily relied on oil exports in the past and recently started diversifying its economy through a reform project because of the natural resource depletion (CIA Factbook, Yemen). Saudi Arabia is known as a dominant player of the oil market with its strategic location and abundant resources, however, the recent discovery of new vast oil deposits in Yemen combined with is favorable location and access to the Bab-el-Mandeb strait could shift the balance of power in the Arabian Peninsula thus instigating a major conflict between the two countries.
Historical Background
Saudi-Yemeni war and Treaty of Taif: With the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, the founder of Saudi Arabia, Ibn Saud, appointed himself as a king and by 1932 controlled almost the whole peninsula except for Yemen and a few other smaller countries (Murphy). The war was initiated when Emir Idrissi of Jizan province in Yemen recanted its alliance with Saudi Arabia and joined the king of Yemen instead. A peace delegation sent by Ibn Saud was jailed and the violence erupted. Saudi forces advanced towards Yemen and captured several cities leaving destruction in his path. Imam of Yemen announced an ambitious plan of advancing to Riyadh with 200,000 men and forced the Saudis to consider peace negotiations. The war officially ended with the signing of the Treaty of Taif, which restored Yemen's control over territories in question but also granted the rights for Saudi Arabia a right to rent the newly incorporated Yemen territories which set up the scene for future border conflicts.
Border Conflicts: In the 1980s Yemen was in the middle of a long civil war that turned out to unify the country because Southern Yemen could no longer support the war. The newly unified country sided with Iraq and “essentially against the Saudi's, in the Gulf War, further severing any positive ties” (Murphy). During the early 1990s all attempts to solve the boarder issues were sabotaged by a new clash in Najran area due to discovered oil reserves. Since the civil war took a huge toll on the country, Yemen was more accommodating to Saudi Arabia and new attempts for treaties were once again revisited and the Treaty of Taif set borders were restored. Yemen and Saudi Arabia never had established historical borders and “ nomadic indigenous populations and political instability of the region contributed heavily to the lack of defined boundaries”(Murphy). Periods of tension between both countries caused violence along the border especially when Saudi Arabia announced their plans to build a military city near the boarder that could house up to 50,000 officials and troops.
Current Situation: With the public announcement of newly discovered vast oil deposits, the border conflicts are once again resurfacing. In March of 2013, public announcements were made that “Saudi border guards had advanced about three kilometers over the border and into the western Yemeni profince of al-Jawf” (Energy Tribune), where the oil deposits were found. According to the Treaty of Jeddah (Appendix 4), “In the event of the discovery of shared natural wealth suitable for extraction and investment along the line of the border between the two countries will undertake the necessary negotiations between them for the joint exploitation of that wealth” (Al-Bab). As reported in the news (Energy Tribune), Saudi Arabia is refraining for further negotiations along the treaty lines and is systematically occupying desert territories along the Saudi-Yemen border that have yet to be explored oil and gas reserves.
Historical Significance for the Current Conflict: The disputes over territory between both countries starting as early as 1800s set up a scene for current events. Since Saudi Arabia and Yemen do not have a historical border, many established treaties have been broken and a mutual agreement satisfying both sides was never reached. The violence along the border has been prominent for decades especially since Saudi Arabia started building a 1,000 kilometer long fence along the border. The newly discovered oil reserves on Yemen's side of the border are influencing Saudi Arabia to question the current agreement on the territory and raise the question of historical borders and whom has the control over the oil reserves.
Causes of the Conflict:
International Migration Issues: During the 1990s Yemen experienced a high number of returning migrants following the gulf War. Saudi Arabia demanded all foreign laborers to have work permits thus it was estimated that “Yemen absorbed 880,000 returnees” (Colton, 415). The increased number of migrants took a huge toll on recovering economy since the mainly unskilled migrant labor force now joined the ranks of unemployed increasing the rate of unemployment to 30-40% (Colton, 415). In March of 2013, Saudi Arabia was drastically increasing the number of deportations. A new law was passed with intentions to lower the relatively high current unemployment rate in Saudi Arabia, however, the timing might suggest otherwise: the deportations began soon after the Yemen Revolution (Murray). Knowing the damage that past deportation has done to Yemen's economy in 1990, Yemeni officials as well as civilians are not pleased with its northern neighbors recent actions . The border dispute over oil resources is highly fueled by the returning deportees that are starting violent attacks along the border despite the fence project that Saudi Arabia has started.
Foreign Political Interventions: In order to understand the conflicts between Yemen and Saudi Arabia, the foreign political interventions need to be taken into account. The separations of North and South Yemen could be partially attributed to different powers supporting each side. British colonialists left the South Yemen in 1967 and the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen was formed. The newly established state kept close diplomatic relationships with the Soviet Union and other Communist parties while its relations with other Arabian countries were nearly nonexistent (Silverburg). Partially due to its geographic location and the rule of Imams, North Yemen was kept isolated from diplomatic relations other than Saudi Arabia. The Treaty of Taif defined the relationship along the border of both countries and until the unification of North and South Yemen. North Yemen maintained positive diplomatic relationship with Saudi Arabia with many Yemeni people crossing the border to work in Saudi Arabia and both countries having a very lose definition of the border (Colton). The divided country kept neutral diplomatic relations until the Civil War of 1994 when a major tank battle occurred in the city of Aden. Despite Saudi Arabia's relations with North Yemen,during the civil war Saudi Arabia heavily supported South Yemen since the unification of the country imposed possible threats to Saudi Arabia. The past conflicts seem to have a significant influence in current border disputes over the new oil resources. Saudi Arabia's and South Yemen's close relationship, past cooperation and lose border definition are influencing Saudi Arabia to dispute the current border positioning thus putting the newly discovered oil location in question. Saudi Arabia's blurred border history with Northern Yemen region is a driving force behind Saudis advance past the current border between both countries.
Uneven Development: Although Saudi Arabia and Yemen are both located in the Arabian Peninsula and are relatively rich in natural resources, both experienced very different patterns in economic development. Yemen has a Human Development Index (HDI) of 0.482 (Nations Online) while Saudi Arabia has an HDI of 0.782 (IHDI). HDI is an index that is measured by taking life expectancy, education and income measures into account in order to determine what stage of development a country is in. Saudi Arabia is considered to be above a high human development rate while Yemen is considered to be 149th out of 177 according to Nations Online data. The significant difference between both countries’ development indexes suggest that the current oil conflict could be related to the rate of economic development in both countries. In 2011, Yemen had a GDP per capita of $1,361 and Saudi Arabia had $20,540. One of the main reasons for such large difference in GDP per capita could be attributed to Yemen’s turmoil as a country where for majority of the 20th century, Yemen was divided into two separate countries of South and North Yemen until the unification in 1994. The turmoil and civil wars that the country experienced greatly contributed to the underdeveloped economy where majority of the available income was invested towards war expenditures rather than raising literacy and other standards. After the unification, Yemen still experiences economic struggles since South Yemen was allied with the Soviet Union and after the collapse Yemen lost a major trading partner. The unification of 1994 brought more challenges when to separate political and economic systems of North and South Yemen needed to be integrated and “the output fell, unemployment increased, the economy faced high inflation and sever balance of payments difficulties” (IRIN 2013). While Yemen struggled with its economic development, Saudi Arabia had a booming oil-based economy and contrary to Yemen, Saudi Arabia was allied to the US and other democratic countries, thus its economy did not suffer as much after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The differences in both of the countries development patterns can be attributed to the current oil conflict. With the underdeveloped economy and social struggles Yemen is in need of steady income that the newly discovered oil reserves can offer and Saudi Arabia is seeking to strengthen their dominant oil position in the region and avoid possible competition that Yemen might present in the future. Conclusion

Works Cited
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