Value tree paper Decision analysis assists in the process of structural thinking about decisions and the development of supportive subjective judgments that form a basis for good decisions. There are four main phases involved in the process of decision analysis that is the problem structuring, preference elicitation, recommendation decision and sensitivity analysis. Under the problem structuring phase several issues need to be identified and defined. The first task to be carried out involves
Words: 650 - Pages: 3
From: Benjamin E. Hermalin, ph.d. Re: Harvesting Decision I have analyzed your harvesting decision problem. Figure 1 represents your problem in terms of a decision tree. Botrytis [.4] 2 storm [.5] 4 wait 5 no storm 3 [.5] sell as bulk $12,000 + C $42,000 good luck [.4] okay luck [.4] bad luck [.2] $36,000 [.6] no Botrytis 1 bottle $24,000 - R $67,200 $30,000 $34,200 harvest now Figure 1: The harvesting decision represented as a decision tree. In Figure 1, R denotes the monetary value of
Words: 1529 - Pages: 7
Chapter 9: Capacity Planning and Facility Location Overview This chapter defines capacity planning and location analysis and explains the steps and factors considered when making these types of decisions. The relationship between capacity planning and location analysis is described. The use of decision support tools for capacity planning and location analysis is described. Answers to Discussion Questions in Textbook 1. Explain why capacity planning is important to a business.
Words: 1078 - Pages: 5
0% 0 #NAME? #NAME? Depression Don't Test #NAME? -$40,000,000.00 Indications #NAME? #NAME? 0 #NAME? #NAME? Test Effective #NAME? -$150,000,000.00 #NAME? 75.0% -100,000,000 #NAME? #NAME? Test Merck Decision Tree Although a decision analysis would recommend that Merck not commit to the proposal, the company's balance sheet shows that it has significant assets to support a loss. The projected values of earning for depression and dual indications seem to be worth the risk
Words: 354 - Pages: 2
Freemark Abbey Winery Group ZZZ 1. Construct the decision tree for William Jaeger. 2. What should he do? Jaeger should choose to harvest later and wait for the storm. If the storm does come but destroys the grapes, he can decide whether to bottle wine or not to protect winery’s reputation. In either way, he will gain higher revenues from harvesting later than harvesting immediately: EV of “Do not harvest & Bottling”: $39240 EV of “Do not harvest & Not bottling”: $39240-$12000*0
Words: 535 - Pages: 3
the problem – Objectives & constraints 2. Enumerate the decision factors – Alternatives & uncertainties (e.g., pros & cons) 3. Consider relevant information – Quantitative analysis and SWOT 4. Identify the best alternative. – Decision analysis 5. Develop plan for implementing the chosen alternative. – Marketing mix details & examples 6. Evaluate the decision and the decision process. – Re-evaluate the objective(s) & consider assumptions
Words: 1505 - Pages: 7
Memorandum To: Cynthia Crowninsheild From: Date: 2/22/2014 Re: Production Analysis SHUZWORLD A. Distribution Pattern Shuzworld has three plants that ship units to three central warehouses. The company would like to know the lowest transportation cost monthly along with the best shipping plan to achieve the lowest cost. To analyze the cost we are using the transportation modeling tool. The optimal cost is $13,400 which would be the lowest monthly transportation costs which is shown below
Words: 1088 - Pages: 5
Contents………………………………………….…………………………………………………2 1. Introduction………………………………………….…………………………………………................4 1.1 Financial Portfolios.......................................................................................................4 1.2 Data Mining and Decision Trees………………………………………..................….4 1.3 Flow of Report……………………………………….....................................................….5 2. Classification and Regression Trees (CART) …………………………………..........……….6 2.1 Detailed description of CART……………………………………
Words: 10967 - Pages: 44
Executive Summary Oceanview is considering a property bid of $5 million, which would require them to submit a deposit of 10% of the bid amount. Should the bid be rejected, the deposit will be refunded. However, should Oceanview win the bid, they must still consider the approval of zoning change to built the condominium. If the zoning is approved, the building can start. If not, the 10% deposit will be forfeited. From the flow summarized above, we can see that the green light to carry on building
Words: 1530 - Pages: 7
Value of Information in Decision Trees 19 19.1 VALUE OF INFORMATION Useful concept for Evaluating potential information-gathering activities Comparing importance of multiple uncertainties 19.2 EXPECTED VALUE OF PERFECT INFORMATION Several computational methods Flipping tree, moving an event set of branches, appropriate for any decision tree Payoff table, most appropriate only for single-stage tree (one set of uncertain outcomes with no subsequent decisions) Expected improvement All three
Words: 2788 - Pages: 12
