Forecasting Models: Associative and Time Series Forecasting involves using past data to generate a number, set of numbers, or scenario that corresponds to a future occurrence. It is absolutely essential to short-range and long-range planning. Time Series and Associative models are both quantitative forecast techniques are more objective than qualitative techniques such as the Delphi Technique and market research. Time Series Models Based on the assumption that history will repeat
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Tupperware What is Forecasting? Forecasting Time Horizons The Influence of Product Life Cycle Types of Forecasts The Strategic Importance of Forecasting Human Resources Capacity Supply-Chain Management Seven Steps in the Forecasting System 4-2 Outline - Continued Forecasting Approaches Overview of Qualitative Methods Overview of Quantitative Methods Time-Series Forecasting Decomposition of Time Series Naïve Approach
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PRODUCTION AND OPERATION MANAGEMENT PART ONE 1. Inputs in to outputs 2. The first operation to the finished product 3. Demand that is controlled by the company 4. Complete Enterprise wide business solution 5. Computer aided design 6.Technological forecast 7. All of the above 8. Production planning and scheduling & control system 9. Functional layout 10. Work measurement PART TWO 1. Define job shop production? Job Shop Production: In this system, products are manufactured to meet
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Operation Management – Forecasting Outline: * * Global Company Profile: Tupperware Corporation * What Is Forecasting? * Forecasting Time Horizons * The Influence of Product Life Cycle * Types Of Forecasts * The Strategic Importance Of Forecasting * Human Resources * Capacity * Supply-Chain Management * Seven Steps In The Forecasting System * Time-series Forecasting * Decomposition of a Time Series * Naïve Approach * Moving
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QUALITATIVE TECHNIQUES Qualitative forecasting techniques are generally more subjective than their quantitative counterparts. Qualitative techniques are more useful in the earlier stages of the product life cycle, when less past data exists for use in quantitative methods. Qualitative methods include the Delphi technique, Nominal Group Technique (NGT), sales force opinions, executive opinions, and market research. THE DELPHI TECHNIQUE. The Delphi technique uses a panel of experts to produce a
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Forecasting is described as, “the art and science of predicting future events” (Heizer, Render, & Griffen, 2014). It’s used a planning tool that helps management cope with the uncertainty of the future. Forecasting has many purposes within businesses and the purpose will vary depending on what type of organization you’re running or working for. Forecasting includes many different types of techniques that have the ability to give detailed information about future measurements, challenges of future
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4. design of goods and services 5. managing quality III. layout strategy 1. marketing 2. pricing of goods and services I,II,IV I,II,V II,III,V I,II,III All of the abov 4. Henry Ford is noted for his contributions to _______________. • time and motion studies • material requirements planning • assembly line operations • statistical quality control • scientific management 5. Which of the following is the best example of a pure service? • electric co-op • counseling • oil change
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4. design of goods and services 5. managing quality III. layout strategy 1. marketing 2. pricing of goods and services I,II,IV I,II,V II,III,V I,II,III All of the abov 4. Henry Ford is noted for his contributions to _______________. • time and motion studies • material requirements planning • assembly line operations • statistical quality control • scientific management 5. Which of the following is the best example of a pure service? • electric co-op • counseling • oil change
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FORECASTING FUNDAMENTALS Forecast: A prediction, projection, or estimate of some future activity, event, or occurrence. Types of Forecasts * Economic forecasts * Predict a variety of economic indicators, like money supply, inflation rates, interest rates, etc. * Technological forecasts * Predict rates of technological progress and innovation. * Demand forecasts
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Forecasting Why forecast? Features Common to all Forecasts • Conditions in the past will continue in the future • Rarely perfect • Forecasts for groups tend to be more accurate than forecasts for individuals • Forecast accuracy declines as time horizon increases Elements of a Good Forecast • Timely • Accurate • Reliable (should work consistently) • Forecast expressed in meaningful units • Communicated in writing • Simple to understand
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