Forecasting Why forecast? Features Common to all Forecasts • Conditions in the past will continue in the future • Rarely perfect • Forecasts for groups tend to be more accurate than forecasts for individuals • Forecast accuracy declines as time horizon increases Elements of a Good Forecast • Timely • Accurate • Reliable (should work consistently) • Forecast expressed in meaningful units • Communicated in writing • Simple to understand and use Steps in
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PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT BUS3020 COURSE CONTENT WEEK THREE TOPIC: FORECASTING • Different Methods of Forecasting – Formal and Informal, • Qualitative and Quantitative Methods • Causal methods auto projection methods of forecasting. What is forecasting? Forecasting is the art and science of predicting future events. As a science it uses historical data and projects them into the future using mathematical models. As an art it uses intuition or judgment to predict the future
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availability,Customer Service. BASIC FORECASTING APPROACHES: Qualitative (Judgmental) Methods: Intuition, emotions, experience, expertise, value system. No data available, vague situations: new product or technology. Jury of Executive Opinion, Delphi Method, Sales force composite, Consumer market surveys.; Quantitative (Statistical) Methods: Mathematical models, historical data, causality. Data available, stable situations: Existing products, technology. Time-series Models: Naïve approach, Moving averages
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FORECASTING - a method for translating past experience into estimates of the future. Forecasting is the process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes (typically) have not yet been observed. A commonplace example might be estimation of the expected value for some variable of interest at some specified future date. Prediction is a similar, but more general term. Both might refer to formal statistical methods employing time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data, or alternatively
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solution of that problem of a company. To take such a challenge of identifying problems was quite a challenge. But thanks again to almighty that we have been able to do this without experiencing any big difficulty and have been able to finish it in time. Making this project would not been possible without the help and proper
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Marks 10 Answer all questions. 1. a) Explain the forecasting process? What are the techniques for monitoring forecasts? b) Explain various forecasting models. a) A planning tool that helps management in its attempts to cope with the uncertainty of the future, relying mainly on data from the past and present and analysis of trends. Forecasting starts with certain assumptions based on the management's experience, knowledge, and judgment. Qualitative
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Principles of OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT Seventh Edition r Jay Heizer Jesse H. Jones Professor of Business Administration Texas Lutheran University Barry Render Charles Harwood Professor of Operations Management Crummer Graduate School of Business Rollins College PEARSON Prentice Hall Upper Saddle River, New Jersey 07458 About the Authors vi Foreword xx Preface xxi PART i l l 1, Introduction to Operations Management 1 Operations and Productivity 1 Global Company Profile:
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Operations Management? 2013 Joshua Richards POM 343 Due: 12/11/2013 Table of Contents Tale of Things to Come 1 Conceptual Model 2 Class Two: What is Operations Management / Productivity, Competitiveness & Strategy 3 Class Three: Forecasting, Aggregate Planning, MRP and ERP 4 Class Four: Product and Service Design 5 Class Five: Capacity Planning, Process Selection and Facility Layout 6 Class Six: Design of Work Systems and Learning Curves 7 Class Eight: Location Planning and
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Engineering approach 3.1 A simple neuron - description of a simple neuron 3.2 Firing rules - How neurones make decisions 3.3 Pattern recognition - an example 3.4 A more complicated neuron 4. Architecture of neural networks 4.1 Feed-forward (associative) networks 4.2 Feedback (autoassociative) networks 4.3 Network layers 4.4 Perceptrons 5. The Learning Process 5.1 Transfer Function 5.2 An Example to illustrate the above teaching procedure 5.3 The Back-Propagation Algorithm 6. Applications
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Question 1 1.1. Explain in the various types of Research Methods along with their importance. Research comprises "creative work undertaken on a systematic basis in order to increase the stock of knowledge, including knowledge of humans, culture and society, and the use of this stock of knowledge to devise new applications. Qualitative This type of research methods involves describing in details specific situation using research tools like interviews, surveys, and Observations. Qualitative
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