Forecasting the USD/COP Exchange Rate: A Random Walk with a Variable Drift Peter Rowland Banco de la República* Abstract This study develops three exchange rate models as well as a simple statistical model defined as a random walk with a variable drift. The exchange rate models all use the purchasing power parity hypothesis to account for the long-term relationships between prices and the exchange rate, together with error correction models to represent any shortterm dynamics. The models are estimated
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Relationship between Interest Rate and Stock Price: Empirical Evidence from Developed and Developing Countries Md. Mahmudul Alam (Corresponding author) CRM, Marketing Division, Grameenphone Ltd 47 Shantinarar, Dhaka 1217, Bangladesh Tel: 880-1711-503-782 E-mail: rony000@gmail.com Md. Gazi Salah Uddin Department of Business Administration East West University 43, Mohakhali C/A, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh E-mail: rimsust2002@yahoo.com Abstract Stock exchange and interest rate are two crucial factors of
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examination of the Purchasing power parity theory with reference to 22 (invluding the U.S) countries is the prime objective of the paper. Consumer price index (CPI), whole sale price/producer price index (PPI), traded price index (TPI) and nominal exchange rate are the variables which were investigated in this study for the period 1957Q1-1998Q4, on the basis of the mean reversion hypothesis. Engle-Granger co-integration and Unit root tests have been employed to both of variables and estimated residuals
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Market Efficiency and the Johannesburg Securities Exchange Table of Contents 1. Abstract 3 2. Introduction 4 3. The Johannesburg Securities Exchange 4 3.1. History 4 3.2. Function 5 4. The Efficient Market Hypothesis 5 4.1. Strong From 6 4.2. Semi-strong form 6 4.3. Weak form 7 4.4. Random Walk Hypothesis 8 5. Empirical evidence 9 5.1. Joint Hypothesis Problem 10 5.2. Capital Asset Pricing Model 11 5.3. Empirical evidence on investor overreaction
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study employs daily closing prices of eminent market indices from a time period 2004-2013.The stock returns have been subjected to unit root tests such as the Augmented Dickey Fuller test and a panel unit root test. Additionally the existence of random walk for these stock markets has also been examined through the Jarque-Bera statistic. The results indicate information inefficiency in the time period under study for all indices. Investors can therefore predict future prices on the basis of historical
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Econometrics of Random Walk Hypothesis ABSTRACT The random walk hypothesis is a key instrument used in the analysis of forecasting in the economic and financial market. It is used primarily in the forecasting of the prices of stocks. This is useful to determine and forecast the prices of stocks given previous stock prices. This paper discusses the basis of the hypothesis, the two types of random walk hypothesis, its framework, methodologies and the analysis of its repercussions. INTRODUCTION
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Weak- Form Market Efficiency of Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), Bangladesh ABU TAHER MOLLIK Economics & Finance, Regional School of Business, Faculty of Law and Management, La-Trobe University, Bendigo, VIC 3550, Australia. Email:abumollik@yahoo.com.au; a.mollik@latrobe.edu.au M KHOKAN BEPARI PhD Student School of Commerce and Marketing Faculty of Arts, Business, Informatics and Education Central Queensland University, Australia Email: k.bepari@cqu.edu.au; khokan552@yahoo.com Phone:+610402917968
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A STUDY OF FINANCIAL CRISIS AND ITS IMPACT ON STOCK MARKET A MANAGEMENT RESEARCH PROJECT SUBMITTED TO DHARMSINH DESAI UNIVERSITY FOR THE PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION (MBA) SUBMITTED BY CHARMI S. SHAH ROLL NO.: 42 UNDER THE GUIDANCE OF Dr. FALGUNI PANDYA ASSISTANT PROFESSOR (FINANCE) CENTRE FOR MANAGEMENT STUDIES DHARMSINH DESAI UNIVERSITY NADIAD 2014 DECLARATION I hereby declare that the project titled “FINANCIAL CRISIS AND ITS IMPACT ON THE STOCK
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Background Functioning of capital market in Bangladesh mainly started with the beginning of trading activities of Dhaka Stock Exchange. It first incorporated as East Pakistan Stock Exchange Association Ltd in 28 April 1954 and started formal trading in 1956. It was renamed as East Pakistan Stock Exchange Ltd in 23 June 1962. Again in 13 May 1964 it was renamed as Dacca Stock Exchange Ltd. After the liberation war in 1971 the trading was discontinued for five years. In 1976 trading restarted in Bangladesh
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Canada Abstract This paper develops simple econometric models to analyze and forecast three components of the Bank of Canada commodity price index (BCPI), namely non-energy commodity prices (BCNE), the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price (WTI), and other energy prices. In the paper, we present different methodologies to identify transitory and permanent components of movements in these prices. A structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model is used for real BCNE prices, a multiple structural-break
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