Relationship between stock return and exchange rate: evidence on China Yaqiong Li a b , Lihong Huang b a b The Business School, Loughborough University ,UK College of Mathematics and Econometrics, Hunan University, Changsha ,Hunan ,China Abstract The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between RMB exchange rate and A-share stock returns in China, in particular in Shanghai stock market. We find that both stock returns and RMB nominal exchange rate are integrated of order 1.
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Prices are always wrong, but no one knows for sure if they are too high or too low. EMH does not imply that bubbles in asset prices are impossible nor does it deny that environmental and behavioral factors cannot have profound influences on required rates of return and risk premiums. At its core, EMH implies that arbitrage opportunities for riskless gains do not exist in an *Princeton University. I am indebted to Alan Blinder and to the participants in the Russell Sage Conference on Economic Lessons
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2.0 Literature review 5 2.1 Traditional Portfolio Measures …………………………………………………………….6 a. Sharpe ratio: 6 b. Treynor ratio: 7 c. Jensen Alpha: 8 d. Fama-French Model 10 2.2 Assumption to Models ……………………………………………………………………11 2.3 Possible Results ……………………………………………………………………………11 2.4 Limitations of the traditional models ……………………………………………………12 3.0 Academic Review 14 3.1 Types of Analysis Applied in Currency Markets ……………………………………14 3.2 Empirical Literature Review ……………………………………………………………17
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kij1 Master Thesis Supervisor: PETER LØCHTE JØRGENSEN Author: QIAN Zhang (402847) Pricing of principle protected notes embedded with Asian options in Denmark ---- Using a Monte Carlo Method with stochastic volatility (the Heston Model) Aarhus School of Business and Social Science 2011 2 Acknowledgements My gratitude and appreciation goes to my supervisor Peter Lø chte Jø rgensen, for his kind and insightful discussion and guide through my process of writing. I was always impressed
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Three-month Exchange Rate Forecasting between USD and JPY Abstract This paper aims at the forecast of USD-JPY exchange rate on 1st May, 2012 based on the data collected before 1st Feb. 2012. The result proves satisfactory predictions when summarize using the fundamental forecasting, market-based forecasting and mixed forecasting all into consideration. The use of PPP gives the most accurate prediction comparing with the real rate of 1st May, 2012, though the exchange rate is actually affected
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period models Summary 1.1 Some definitions from finance 1.2 Pricing a forward 1.3 The one-step binary model 1.4 A ternary model 1.5 A characterisation of no arbitrage 1.6 The risk-neutral probability measure Exercises Binomial trees and discrete parameter martingales Summary 2.1 The multiperiod binary model 2.2 American options 2.3 Discrete parameter martingales and Markov processes 2.4 Some important martingale theorems 2.5 The Binomial Representation Theorem 2.6 Overture to continuous models Exercises
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inflation, interest rates, money supply, exchange rate, foreign reserves, savings and investment. Variables used in study: • Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services. Consequently, inflation also reflects erosion in the purchasing power of money – a loss of real value in the internal medium of exchange and unit of account
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autoregressive moving average (ARMA) process, estimation and forecasting from ARMA models, and long-run variance estimation. Section 3.3 introduces univariate nonstationary time series and defines the important concepts of I(0) and I(1) time series. Section 3.4 explains univariate long memory time series. Section 3.5 covers concepts for stationary and ergodic multivariate time series, introduces the class of vector autoregression models, and discusses long-run variance estimation. Rigorous treatments of
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theory that states it is impossible to "beat the market" because stock market efficiency causes existing share prices to always incorporate and reflect all relevant information. According to the EMH, stocks always trade at their fair value on stock exchanges, making it impossible for investors to either purchase undervalued stocks or sell stocks for inflated prices. As such, it should be impossible to outperform the overall market through expert stock selection or market timing, and that the only way
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[6] gambler’s ruin and Random walks on integers are some instants of Markov processes. [7] Some variations of these processes were studied earlier in the form of independent variables. [7] There are two very important examples of Markov processes: Poisson process and Wiener process
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