#NAME? #NAME? Depression Don't Test #NAME? -$40,000,000.00 Indications #NAME? #NAME? 0 #NAME? #NAME? Test Effective #NAME? -$150,000,000.00 #NAME? 75.0% -100,000,000 #NAME? #NAME? Test Merck Decision Tree Although a decision analysis would recommend that Merck not commit to the proposal, the company's balance sheet shows that it has significant assets to support a loss. The projected values of earning for depression and dual indications seem to be worth the risk. Weightloss
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Questions for the Merck Case Create a decision tree for Merck. The 2 leftmost branches would identify the alternatives related to licensing Davarink (specifically license versus not to license). Next, if Merck decides to pursue license, they go into phase I which results in a success, or failure. Phase I success is followed by phase II where Merck has the opportunity to develop the drug to treat depression alone, weight loss alone, or both, or contemplate phase II failure. Finally phase
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Licensing Opportunity Statement of the problem- Merck must determine whether or not to bid to license Davanrik My recommendation is that Merck must definitely make a competitive bid for Davanrik. The total expected value from the deal based numbers given in the Merck article is a healthy $14million so keeping a 20% incentive, Merck should bid no more than $11million for Davanrik as the initial licensing fee. Looking at the background of Merck, it is clear that it is a successful company with
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3, 2015 Mr. Kender, Merck and Company has been presented with a very interesting opportunity from LAB Pharmaceuticals. After having analyzed the current opportunity that Merck and Company is being presented with we have come up with the following recommendations on how best for you and your company to proceed with this proposal to purchase LAB Pharmaceuticals new drug, Davanrik. We feel that purchasing the rights to Davanrik is a great opportunity for Merck and Company to expand its product
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Problem Definition Should Rich Kender recommend licensing Davanrik, making Merck & Company responsible for its manufacture and its marketing? In order to provide Rich Kender with a good and thorough analysis and recommendation on the Davanrik licensing project, we need to answer the following guidance questions: I. How has Merck been able to achieve substantial returns to capital given the large costs and lengthy time to develop drugs? II. How much should they pay? III. What is the expected
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Should Merck license the compound? Merck would be responsible for 1) the approval of Davanrik 2) the manufacture of Danavrik 3) marketing of Danavrik Merck would pay LAB for 1) initial fee 2) royalty on all sales 3) make additional pymts as Danavrik completed each stage of approval process (3 Phases) Additional facts: approval process should take 7 years patent will cover 17 years (7 of approval process nad 10 yr period of exclusivity beginning in yr 7) 1 Assumptions: All Cash flows
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Questions for the Merck Case Create a decision tree for Merck. The 2 leftmost branches would identify the alternatives related to licensing Davarink (specifically license versus not to license). Next, if Merck decides to pursue license, they go into phase I which results in a success, or failure. Phase I success is followed by phase II where Merck has the opportunity to develop the drug to treat depression alone, weight loss alone, or both, or contemplate phase II failure. Finally phase
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The Application of Decision Trees by Companies and its Advantages and Disadvantages Management science uses different ways of approach to solve management problems. Management science which is also referred to as decision analysis is part of a core of business. Decision analysis is a method used in the business firm to help managers resolve uncertainties in making investment decisions. It helps them make choices, take risks, and gain information that is needed. The decision tree can be simple or
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the problem – Objectives & constraints 2. Enumerate the decision factors – Alternatives & uncertainties (e.g., pros & cons) 3. Consider relevant information – Quantitative analysis and SWOT 4. Identify the best alternative. – Decision analysis 5. Develop plan for implementing the chosen alternative. – Marketing mix details & examples 6. Evaluate the decision and the decision process. – Re-evaluate the objective(s) & consider assumptions
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investing more time and money in the products. Given The Decision tree chart attachment shows the predicted gains from each decision alternative described above. Gains depend on how the market reacts to the action taken by the company. The probability of each market reaction is shown on the decision tree. Task: Develop a response to the attached decision tree chart in which you: a) Calculate the expected value for each of the four decision branches. The company can either develop a new product
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