1 Choice experiment: Identifying “niche” versus “change-of-pace” brands Albert C. Bemmaor, December 23, 2011 March 30, 2012 October 12, 2012 The use of the “REIBST2_vaa.xls” data file is restricted to the course MKGM31203 (Q1, 2012-2013) at ESSEC Business School. “Niche” brands can be defined as brands that benefit from an abnormally high repeat rate whereas “change-of-pace” brands can be defined as brands with an abnormally low repeat rate for a given penetration level. Key notions Here
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* Definition of overconfidence In business or trading, an overestimation of one's abilities and of the precision of one's forecasts. Overconfident people set overly narrow confidence intervals in making predictions. They tend to overweigh their own forecasts relative to those of others. The self-serving attribution bias, under which individuals attribute past successes to their own skills and past failures to bad luck, can lead to overconfidence. In the context of financial markets, the confidence
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MatLab. Assignment 1 Introduction TO SETS AND PROBABILTIES Full 2012 In this experiment you will study: 1- Apply set theory and operation using Matlab. 2- Calculation of probability using Matlab. * Practice 1.1 [Operation on Sets] A=[2 4 5 7] ------------------------------------------------- A = ------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------- 2
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6) (3,1)(3,2)(3,3)(3,4)(3,5)(3,6) (4,1)(4,2)(4,3)(4,4)(4,5)(4,6) (5,1)(5,2)(5,3)(5,4)(5,5)(5,6) (6,1)(6,2)(6,3)(6,4)(6,5)(6,6) C) Probability of obtaining a value of 7 is 6/36 = 1/6 D) Probability of obtaining a value of 9 and greater is 10/36 = 5/18 E) No, not agree! There are 18/36 = 1/2 probabilities of even values and the same 18/36 = 1/2 probabilities of odd values F) Counting rule for multi step eksperiments 3. If 5 outcomes are equally likely, it means that 1/5 = 0.2 A) P(A) = E1
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space: a list of all possible outcomes of the random experiment Event: a collection or set of one or more simple events in a sample space Probability of an event: the sum of the probabilities of the simple events Random experiment: an action or process that leads to one of several possible outcomes The first step in the process of assigning probabilities is to produce a list of the outcomes. The list of outcomes must be exhaustive, which means all possible outcomes must be included. Additionally
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A. Probabilities of a truckload Formula: P(E) = f/n 1 Dry Method Total Truckloads 184 Bluberries in traditional dry method 125 Probability 125/184 0.679347826 2 Wet Method Total Truckloads 184 Bluberries in traditional dry method 59 Probability 59/184 0.320652174 3 Classified as No. 1 Total Truckloads 184 Blueberies harvested in dry method 137 Probability 137/184
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[pic] FACULTY OF LAW AND BUSINESS School of Business North Sydney Campus Semester 2, 2014 STAT102: BUSINESS DATA ANALYSIS Probability Trees A survey of STAT102 students reveals that among the students that attain CR or better grades, 60% of them attended both lectures and tutorials. Among the students that attain PASS or FAILURE, only 20% of them attended both lectures and tutorials. Not attending both lectures and tutorials and with self-study, a student feels
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decision or made with uncertainty of the outcome. Probability is tool of measurement used to determine the likelihood of an occurrence during an event. Because people are often challenged with uncertainty when making a decision the probability concept is important in the decision making process. Statistics are used for probability analysis of events that cannot be controlled. Many decisions are often made with a significant lack of knowledge and probability helps to determine the unknown. Further, when
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Total $59.00 $798.00 Average $36.42 Average $25.17 Average $4.92 $66.50 A2. Materials Labor Utilities Cost Probability Cummulative Probability Cost Probability Cummulative Probability Cost Probability Cummulative Probability $33 0.20 0.00-0.20 $22.00 0.18 0.00-0.18 $3.00 0.16 0.00-0.16 $35 0.33 0.20-0.53 $23.00 0.08 0.18-0.26 $4.00 0.37 0.16-0.53 $38 0.37 0.53-0.90 $24.00 0.25
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Section 3.1, Exercise #14, p. 125 Finding Probabilities consider a company that selects employees for random drug tests. The company uses a computer to select randomly employee numbers that range from 1 to 6296. Find the probability of selecting a number greater than 1000. P(E) = Number of outcomes in E / Total number of Outcomes in sample space Number of outcomes in E = 6296 – 100 = 5296 The probability = P(E) = 5296 / 6296 = 0.841 = 84.1%
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