THE B L A C K SWAN The HIGHLY I mpact IM of the PROBABLE Nassim Nicholas Taleb U.S.A. $26.95 Canada $34.95 is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpre dictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9 / 1 1 . For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie
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Table of Contents Title Page Copyright Page Dedication Introduction Chapter 1 - Priming Chapter 2 - Confabulation Chapter 3 - Confirmation Bias Chapter 4 - Hindsight Bias Chapter 5 - The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy Chapter 6 - Procrastination Chapter 7 - Normalcy Bias Chapter 8 - Introspection Chapter 9 - The Availability Heuristic Chapter 10 - The Bystander Effect Chapter 11 - The Dunning-Kruger Effect Chapter 12 - Apophenia Chapter 13 - Brand Loyalty Chapter 14 - The Argument from
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e eBook Collection Scientific American-Psychology Appendix Ch01 This is a Protected PDF document. Please enter your user name and password to unlock the text. User Name: Password: Unlock Remember my user name and password. If you are experiencing problems unlocking this document or you have questions regarding Protectedpdf files please contact a Technical Support representative: In the United States: 1-877-832-4867 In Canada: 1-800-859-3682 Outside the U.S. and Canada: 1-602-387-2222
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4RN © 2006 by Lois Tyson Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis Group, an Informa business Printed in the United States of America on acid‑free paper 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 International Standard Book Number‑10: 0‑415‑97410‑0 (Softcover) 0‑415‑97409‑7 (Hardcover) International Standard Book Number‑13: 978‑0‑415‑97410‑3 (Softcover) 978‑0‑415‑97409‑7 (Hardcover) No part of this book may be reprinted, reproduced, transmitted, or utilized in any form by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now
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