Extension of the Snow Fun Ski Resort Problem Suppose that the operating cost of the snowmaking equipment is actually 30% higher than the owner had estimated, that is, $13,000 if the snowfall is heavy, $65,000 if it is moderate, and $117,000 if it is light. How will the increased operating cost affect the owner’s optimal decision? As shown above, the best decision now is to let the larger hotel run the ski resort and the profit is $45,000 Calculate the EVPI, and determine that maximum amount that
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representing the time between break-downs varies from 0 to 6 weeks with probability increasing continuously, the copier went without breaking down can be approximated by the probability distribution f(x) =x/18 0 < x < 6 Hence the distribution function of x is F(x)=x2/36 0 < x < 6 If r1 is another random number generated between 0 and 1, then we can write r1= x2/36 Hence x=6 Therefore to simulate from the break down distribution, generate a random number r1 between 0 and 1 and make
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433 Excel Functions and Tools DECS - 433 requires knowledge of various Excel functions and tools. This document attempts to explain and summarize your basic responsibilities in this regard. The information is presented in the following general categories: • Basic Excel Functions SUM PRODUCT SUMPRODUCT • MAX MIN Excel Functions Commonly used in Simulation RAND RANDBETWEEN IF IF(RAND( ) … ) IF( … IF( … )) IF(AND … ) IF(OR … ) COUNTIF SUMIF LOOKUP LOOKUP(RAND( ) … ) • Excel Functions Commonly
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An Advanced Finite Element Reliability Tool for Stray Current Corrosion Assessments W.H.A. Peelen and W.M.G. Courage*. TNO Built Environment and Geosciences, P.O. Box 49, 2600 AA Delft, The Netherlands, *wim.courage@tno.nl Abstract: This paper describes a model which simulates stray current interference of underground steel structures through a traction power system, which causes accelerated corrosion Also the coupling of this model to a inhome developed reliability software package,
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not have a back-up copy machine. The first step in creating the simulation was to determine the time between repairs. The probability function for time between repairs is x = 6*square root (sqrt) of r, where r is the generated random number. First, a random number was generated. The next step to determine the time between repairs was to use the probability function of x=6*sqrt of r. The results of this calculation were placed in the second column of the excel worksheet. A third column was created
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Statistics in Business NAME:_________________________ Sections 4 and 5 Class 05 Assignment Due Wed February 1, 2012 1. (EMBS problem 19, page 260) The average amount of precipitation in Dallas, Texas during April is 3.5 inches (The World Almanac, 2000). Assume that a normal distribution applies and that the standard deviation is 0.8 inches. a. What percentage of Aprils do we expect precipitation to exceed 5 inches? b. What
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θx-1(1-θ) x=1,2,……. f(θ)=1, 0< θ<1 Assuming that a series of observation x=1, 2 ... are sample from f(x|θ) and that each observation is independent and is identically distributed (iid), the joint probability density function for x1,….., xn is the product of the individual pdfs: fx1,….,xnθ=i=1nfxiθ =i=1nθxi-1(1-θ) =(1-θ)nθι=1nxi - n The maximum likelihood estimate of θ can be found by first finding posterior: Posterior
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Excel RAND function which I denoted r2 between 0 and 1. If 0 < r2 < 0.2 then it takes 1 day 0.2 < r2 < 0.65 then it takes 2 days 0.65 < r2 < 0.90 then it takes 3 days 0.9 < r2 < 1 then it takes 4 days 2 The probability distribution of the random variable varies between the times of 0 to 6 weeks, with the probability increasing as time goes on. This can be approximated by the function f(x) = x/18 for 0 < x < 6 Therefore, the distribution function is f(x)
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informs Vol. 36, No. 3, May–June 2006, pp. 248–258 issn 0092-2102 eissn 1526-551X 06 3603 0248 ® doi 10.1287/inte.1060.0211 © 2006 INFORMS Estimating Air-Cargo Overbooking Based on a Discrete Show-Up-Rate Distribution School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, 765 Ferst Drive, Atlanta, Georgia 30332 {andreeap@isye.gatech.edu, pinar@isye.gatech.edu, ellis.johnson@isye.gatech.edu} Sabre Airline Solutions, 1 East Kirkwood Boulevard, Southlake, Texas 76092
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PROBABILITY 1. ACCORDING TO STATISTICAL DEFINITION OF PROBABILITY P(A) = lim FA/n WHERE FA IS THE NUMBER OF TIMES EVENT A OCCUR AND n IS THE NUMBER OF TIMES THE EXPERIMANT IS REPEATED. 2. IF P(A) = 0, A IS KNOWN TO BE AN IMPOSSIBLE EVENT AND IS P(A) = 1, A IS KNOWN TO BE A SURE EVENT. 3. BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTIONS IS BIPARAMETRIC DISTRIBUTION, WHERE AS POISSION DISTRIBUTION IS UNIPARAMETRIC ONE. 4. THE CONDITIONS FOR THE POISSION MODEL ARE : • THE PROBABILIY
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