Avalanche Corporation Bayesian Analysis Case Question 1. Determine the break-even volume for the two production options(bath and line) Suppose the break-even volume should be x units total cost for batch flow production equals 475,000+ 75x total cost for line flow production equals 900,000+60x if 475,000+75x = 900,000+60x , we will have x= 28,334 units. if more than 28,334 units are produced, the cost of batch flow production will be higher than that of line flow production
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Shamara MAT 143 03/02/16 Module 6 Project 1. (5 pts) You are going to roll a pair of dice 108 times and record the sum of each roll. Before beginning, make a prediction about how you think the sums will be distributed. (Each sum will occur equally often, there will be more 12s than any other sum, there will be more 5s than any other sum, etc.) Record your prediction here: I think in the beginning the sums will vary but then eventually repeat, and there will be more 7’s then any other sum
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A Decision of Uncertainty A Decision of Uncertainty Paper There are decisions that people make where the outcome is presumably known and, there are the decisions that people make where the results are unknown. The latter part of the aforementioned statement is also known as decisions of uncertainty. To make these choices with more confidence, we will explore concepts that will formulate these judgments. We also have to include appropriate probability concepts that will help limit
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Module code: BSS002-6 Module Name: Business Data Analysis Submission: 30 November, 2012 I my class I learn how to simulate data to solve a problem. I learn to use excel and some function in it these are =SUM() = RAND() =AVERAGE() =STDV() =RANDINV() =VLOOKUP() and few more . These are widely used function when I simulated data in excel. In task 1 I find out how to calculate or forecast how much card should we print. I use a random variable with =RAND( function and use =VLOOKUP()
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United Arab Emirates University College Of Engineering Electrical Engineering Department ECOM320 - Random Signals
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subjects to assess their abilities - indeed, a vast majority of people say they are above the average. * Hindsight bias Hindsight bias, also known as the knew-it-all-along effect or creeping determinism, is the inclination, after an event has occurred, to see the event as having been predictable, despite there having been little or no objective basis for predicting it, prior to its occurrence. It is a multifaceted phenomenon that can affect different stages of designs, processes, contexts, and situations
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heart attack. If the patient survives the surgery, he has a 50% chance that the heart damage will heal. Find the probability that the patient survives and the heart damage heals. Let BS be the event that the patient survives bypass surgery. Let H be the event that the heart damage will heal. Then P(BS) = 0.60, and also we have a conditional probability: given the patient survives the probability that the heart damage will heal is 0.5, that is P(H|BS) = 0.5
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some basic notions you need be familiar with prior to carrying out this exercise: (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) (vi) (vii) What a “variable” is. What a mean (expected value) is and how to compute it; What the notion of independence between two events means and how to test for it; What a correlation between two variables is and how to measure it; What a market share is and how to interpret it; What a penetration is and how to interpret it; What the duplication between two brands is and how
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goes down. c) Today the price remains steady. Comment on the conditional probability you have found. Is there any difference between the conditional probabilities of ‘going up’, ‘going down’ and ‘remaining steady’ and simple probabilities of those events? V) After 15 days if you find that the closing market price is between mean + 0.5 SD. What is the probability that a) Previous day closing price was also between mean + 0.5 SD.(steady) b) Previous day the closing price was less than mean
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Data For Tasks 1-8, consider the following data: 7.2, 1.2, 1.8, 2.8, 18, -1.9, -0.1, -1.5, 13.0, 3.2, -1.1, 7.0, 0.5, 3.9, 2.1, 4.1, 6.5 In Tasks 1-8 you are asked to conduct some computations regarding this data. The computation should be carried out manually. All the steps that go into the computation should be presented and explained. (You may use R in order to verify your computation, but not as a substitute for conducting the manual computations.) A Random Variable In Tasks 9-18 you are
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