of The Random House Publishing Group, a division of Random House, Inc., New York. RANDOM HOUSE and colophon are registered trademarks of Random House, Inc. ISBN 978-1-4000-6928-6 eBook ISBN 978-0-679-60385-6 Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper Illustrations by Anton Ioukhnovets www.atrandom.com 2 4 6 8 9 7 5 3 1 First Edition Book design by Liz Cosgrove Duhi_9781400069286_2p_all_r1.j.indd iv 10/17/11 12:01 PM To Oliver, John Harry, John and Doris, and, everlastingly
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THE B L A C K SWAN The HIGHLY I mpact IM of the PROBABLE Nassim Nicholas Taleb U.S.A. $26.95 Canada $34.95 is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpre dictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9 / 1 1 . For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie
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2012 Catalog Volume 20 Issue 1 March 5, 2012 – December 31, 2012 This Catalog contains information, policies, procedures, regulations and requirements that were correct at the time of publication and are subject to the terms and conditions of the Enrollment Agreement entered into between the Student and ECPI University. In keeping with the educational mission of the University, the information, policies, procedures, regulations and requirements contained herein are continually being reviewed
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animal Books by Elliot Aronson Theories of Cognitive Consistency (with R. Abelson et al.), 1968 Voices of Modern Psychology, 1969 The Social Animal, 1972, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1995, 1999, 2004; (with J. Aronson), 2008 Readings About the Social Animal, 1973, 1977, 1981, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1995, 1999, 2004; (with J. Aronson), 2008 Social Psychology (with R. Helmreich), 1973 Research Methods in Social Psychology (with J. M. Carlsmith & P. Ellsworth), 1976 The Jigsaw Classroom (with C. Stephan
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10016 Routledge Taylor & Francis Group 2 Park Square Milton Park, Abingdon Oxon OX14 4RN © 2006 by Lois Tyson Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis Group, an Informa business Printed in the United States of America on acid‑free paper 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 International Standard Book Number‑10: 0‑415‑97410‑0 (Softcover) 0‑415‑97409‑7 (Hardcover) International Standard Book Number‑13: 978‑0‑415‑97410‑3 (Softcover) 978‑0‑415‑97409‑7 (Hardcover) No part of this book may be reprinted, reproduced
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http://www.academicpress.com Academic Press Harcourt Place, 32 Jamestown Road, London NWl 7BY, UK http ://www. academicpress .com Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 2001092781 hitemational Standard Book Number: 0-12-500452-4 International Standard Book Number: 0-12-500453-2 (International edition) PRINTED IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 01 02 03 04 05 06 MB 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Contents Preface vii Note to Students xi Prelude to Multimedia Sugata Mitra 1 Overview
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