From: Benjamin E. Hermalin, ph.d. Re: Harvesting Decision I have analyzed your harvesting decision problem. Figure 1 represents your problem in terms of a decision tree. Botrytis [.4] 2 storm [.5] 4 wait 5 no storm 3 [.5] sell as bulk $12,000 + C $42,000 good luck [.4] okay luck [.4] bad luck [.2] $36,000 [.6] no Botrytis 1 bottle $24,000 - R $67,200 $30,000 $34,200 harvest now Figure 1: The harvesting decision represented as a decision tree. In Figure 1, R denotes the monetary value of
Words: 1529 - Pages: 7
Decision Analysis Case Study FREEMARK ABBEY WINERY Khurram Masood’s section HLCC Consulting Inc. Julian Hong Nicolas Liao Alan Chen Cheng-Chieh Chao Decision Basis Information Probability of rain, mold formation, acidity, sugar level, wine price, reputation value, detector accuracy, spores effectiveness, immigration law Mr. Jaeger’s Alternatives Harvest now or later Use detector or not Buy spores or not Sell in bottle or bulk Mr. Jaeger’s Preferences Prefers more money
Words: 918 - Pages: 4
Properties 1) FRAMING THE DECISION 1.a) Decisions a) He can exercise the option and buy the land. In this case, the possible decisions are: a.1) Sell the land without any development a.2) Develop the land with a development cost of £ 5 million and the sell it for a higher profit b) He can avoid to exercise the option and invest in another investment that will give to him a certain profit. c) Try to negotiate an option extension in order to be able to delay his decisions until the suit is settled
Words: 1914 - Pages: 8
Value tree paper Decision analysis assists in the process of structural thinking about decisions and the development of supportive subjective judgments that form a basis for good decisions. There are four main phases involved in the process of decision analysis that is the problem structuring, preference elicitation, recommendation decision and sensitivity analysis. Under the problem structuring phase several issues need to be identified and defined. The first task to be carried out involves
Words: 650 - Pages: 3
Decision Analysis Model and Report JaKaiser Smith Southern New Hampshire University Date: 07/09/2015 Abstract In this report following resources have been utilized to establish a relationship between Retail Salesperson’s salaries and their intent to shoplift at their own workplace: * The Larceny theft data from Federal Bureau of Investigation’s official website for the years 2011, 2012 and 2013; * 25th and 26th Annual Retail Theft Surveys by Hayes International for the years
Words: 3519 - Pages: 15
Presenter Notes for Power-point Decision Analysis Task 4A-E A. (Slide 1) Gloria Rodriguez, Shuzworld's retail development specialist, was looking at some possibilities of placing a Shuzworld store into a major target area and has three options to consider. The first option is to build a proposed stand-alone store, the second option is to open an Auburn Mall store, and the third option is to do nothing at the moment. (Slide 2) With the information given from Ms. Rodriguez, the stand-alone store
Words: 3889 - Pages: 16
Decision trees http://www.alchemyformanagers.co.uk/topics/4qpj5es2SiaJVVXn.html Decision trees A decision tree is a visual tool for analysing decisions. In using it, you generate a tree-like graph of decisions and their consequences. In the simplest form of this technique Squares represent decisions Triangles represent end points. Jewish proverb When the graph is completed, you can then add probabilities for each of the individual branches and from the overall probabilities of the end points
Words: 720 - Pages: 3
the problem – Objectives & constraints 2. Enumerate the decision factors – Alternatives & uncertainties (e.g., pros & cons) 3. Consider relevant information – Quantitative analysis and SWOT 4. Identify the best alternative. – Decision analysis 5. Develop plan for implementing the chosen alternative. – Marketing mix details & examples 6. Evaluate the decision and the decision process. – Re-evaluate the objective(s) & consider assumptions
Words: 1505 - Pages: 7
investing more time and money in the products. Given The Decision tree chart attachment shows the predicted gains from each decision alternative described above. Gains depend on how the market reacts to the action taken by the company. The probability of each market reaction is shown on the decision tree. Task: Develop a response to the attached decision tree chart in which you: a) Calculate the expected value for each of the four decision branches. The company can either develop a new product
Words: 687 - Pages: 3
University of Phoenix Student Web site for Week Three. You will be able to go through the simulation only one time, so please use this worksheet to take notes. The simulation will use the following decision model with the indicated critical decision points. You will want to take notes about your decisions and/or make a copy of the screen when you complete the work to assure that you have the information needed to write your reflection at the end of the simulation. |The Case of Fair Warning
Words: 392 - Pages: 2
