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Analysis of a Mm Security

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Action Notes
Pipelines, Power & Utilities
Recommendation: Risk: 12-Month Target Price: 12-Month Total Return:
Market Data (C$)
Current Price 52-Wk Range Mkt Cap (f.d.)($mm) Dividend per Share Dividend Yield Avg. Daily Trading Vol. (3mths) $31.58 $25.51-$32.87 $24,000.8 $0.98 3.1% 1,487,005 December 760.0 750.0 63.7% $10.36 13.4%

September 12, 2011 Equity Research

1 of 4

HOLD Unchanged LOW C$33.00 Unchanged 7.6%

Linda Ezergailis, P.Eng. 416 983 7784 linda.ezergailis@tdsecurities.com

Robert Hope, CFA 416 983 9717 robert.hope@tdsecurities.com

Enbridge Inc.
(ENB-T, ENB-N) C$31.58

Enbridge to Twin the Athabasca Pipeline for $1.2 billion
Event Enbridge has announced that it will twin the southern portion of its existing Athabasca crude oil pipeline between Kirby Lake, AB and Hardisty, AB at an expected cost of $1.2 billion. Impact POSITVE. We estimate the expansion will contribute $0.04 of EPS on an annualized basis when volumes ramp up although we expect it will not contribute to earnings until 2015. Details Athabasca Expansion – Twinning Overview: • Overview: Enbridge has announced that it will install a new twin 345km, 36” liquids pipeline beside its existing Athabasca pipeline between Kirby Lake and Hardisty, Alberta. • Volumes: The twin line will accept volumes from oil sands projects in the Kirby area. We note that Enbridge’s Christina Lake Lateral, which services Cenovus’ and ConocoPhillips’ Christina Lake Enhanced Oil Project, delivers into the Athabasca system near Kirby. The twinning project will allow Enbridge to accommodate new long-haul oil sands volumes from the Cheecham or Athabasca terminals to Hardisty. • Cost: The twin line is expected to cost $1.2 billion. • Capacity: The twin line will initially add 450 kbpd of liquids capacity, which could be cost effectively expanded to 800 kbpd. The project will increase the capacity of the Athabasca system south of Kirby to 1,020 kbpd. • Returns: The project is expected to generate a full-life ROE in the low to mid-teens. The return profile is expected to be upward tilting as volumes increase. • In-Service: The new line is expected to begin accepting volumes in early 2015, with full capacity available by 2016. • Capital Structure: The project is expected to have a 60% debt-tocapitalization.

Financial Data (C$)
Fiscal Y-E Shares O/S (f.d.)(mm) Float Shares (mm) Net Debt/Tot Cap BVPS (basic) ROE

Estimates (C$)
Year EBITDA ($mm) EPS (basic) EPS (f.d.) DI AFFO/Shr Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year P/E (f.d.) P/DI P/AFFO 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E 2,882.0 3,467.0 3,715.0 3,869.0 1.33 1.46 1.57 1.67 1.32 1.44 1.55 1.65 0.85 0.98 1.06 1.14 2.37 2.60 2.75 2.87 2010A 0.43 0.31 0.26 0.31 2011E 0.44 0.34 0.28 -2011E 21.9x 32.2x 12.1x 2012E ----2012E 20.4x 29.8x 11.5x 2013E ----2013E 19.1x 27.7x 11.0x

EPS (f.d.) Quarterly Estimates (C$)

Valuations
2010A 23.9x 37.2x 13.3x

Notes: 2011-13 estimates are presented based on Canadian GAAP All figures in C$, unless otherwise specified.

Please see the final pages of this document for important disclosure information.

Company Profile Enbridge Inc. (ENB-T, N) owns and operates: 1) the world's longest crude oil and liquids pipeline system; 2) Canada's largest gas distribution network in Ontario; and 3) additional oil & gas transmission, gathering, storage and processing assets.

ENB-T: Price 35 35

30

30

25

25

20

20

15 2009 2010 2011

15

Action Notes


September 12, 2011 Equity Research

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Regulatory: Enbridge will need to file standard regulatory applications with the provincial regulator. We note that the twin line will largely use existing right-of-ways.

Athabasca Pipeline Overview: A 540 km liquids pipeline from Fort McMurray, AB to Hardisty, AB. The pipeline’s current capacity is 345 kbpd. In 2010, Enbridge announced two Athabasca expansion projects that would increase its capacity to 570 kbpd in 2014 at a cost of $385 million. Valuation
Exhibit 1. Peer Group Valuation
Curr. Symbol ENB ACO.X CU CPX EMA FTS TA TRP Avg. Price $31.58 $61.23 $59.99 $24.98 $30.89 $32.34 $21.67 $41.41 Shares O/S (mm) 760.0 57.7 127.5 96.9 123.2 186.3 222.0 703.0 Market Cap (mm) $24,001 $3,533 $7,647 $2,421 $3,806 $6,025 $4,811 $29,111 Ind. Div. $0.98 $1.14 $1.61 $1.26 $1.30 $1.16 $1.16 $1.68 Yield 3.1% 1.9% 2.7% 5.0% 4.2% 3.6% 5.4% 4.1% 4.0% 2010A $1.32 $4.88 $3.28 $1.38 $1.65 $1.60 $0.88 $1.97 EPS (f.d.) 2011E $1.44 $5.07 $3.45 $1.27 $1.72 $1.63 $1.12 $2.20 2012E $1.55 $5.56 $3.86 $1.50 $1.81 $1.75 $1.13 $2.32 2013E $1.65 $5.90 $4.12 $1.68 $1.84 $1.82 $1.17 $2.41 2010A 24.0x 12.6x 18.3x 18.1x 18.7x 20.2x 24.6x 21.1x 20.7x P/E 2011E 21.9x 12.1x 17.4x 19.7x 18.0x 19.9x 19.3x 18.8x 19.3x 2012E 20.4x 11.0x 15.5x 16.7x 17.1x 18.5x 19.2x 17.8x 17.9x 2013E 19.1x 10.4x 14.6x 14.9x 16.7x 17.8x 18.5x 17.2x 17.0x EPS $1.52 $5.41 $3.74 $1.43 $1.78 $1.71 $1.13 $2.29 P/E 20.8x 11.3x 16.1x 17.5x 17.3x 18.9x 19.2x 18.1x 18.3x For. E Forward

Note: Averages exclude ATCO. Source: Company Reports, Thomson, TD Securities.

Justification of Target Price Our $33.00 target is predicated on 50% of our 2012 and 2013 financial estimates as follows: 1) 25% EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.5x, 2) 25% relative dividend yield of 110%, and 3) 50% free cash flow yield of 8.5%. Our target price also incorporates a 2.75% 10-year Government of Canada bond-yield assumption. Key Risks to Target Price 1) Higher than expected long bond yields; 2) acquisitions that do not create shareholder value; 3) operational disruptions; 4) potential reduction in historical valuation premium to sector; 5) tougher than expected competition for new oil transmission pipeline capacity; 6) regulatory surprises; 7) substantial delays and/or cancellations of oil sands projects; 8) WCSB risk, 9) interest rate risk, and 10) foreign exchange risk. Investment Conclusion We view the twinning of the Athabasca Pipeline favourably as we expect it will generate stable cash flows. The project furthers our belief that Enbridge’s strong competitive position in servicing oil sands production could see the company capture a disproportionate amount of projects in the area. We note that the company has secured $3.6 billion of planned Regional Oil Sands System projects that are expected to enter service between 2011 and 2015. We continue to see Enbridge as a prudent pipeline operator and a low-risk way to participate in the growing volumes in Canada's oil sands region and North American renewable power growth. In addition, Enbridge’s strong fundamentals, large portfolio of growth projects, and management’s track record of value creation should help it achieve above-average EPS growth in the long term. In the current environment, investors should find the company’s relatively low-risk business model attractive.

Action Notes
TD Securities Equity Research Disclosures
Company Enbridge Inc. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. Ticker ENB-T

September 12, 2011 Equity Research

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Disclosures ENB-N 1,2, 4, 9, 10

TD Securities Inc., TD Securities (USA) LLC or an affiliated company has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities within the last 12 months with respect to the subject company. TD Securities Inc., TD Securities (USA) LLC or an affiliated company has received compensation for investment banking services within the last 12 months with respect to the subject company. TD Securities Inc., TD Securities (USA) LLC or an affiliated company expects to receive compensation for investment banking services within the next three months with respect to the subject company. TD Securities Inc. or TD Securities (USA) LLC has provided investment banking services within the last 12 months with respect to the subject company. A long position in the securities of the subject company is held by the research analyst, by a member of the research analyst’s household, or in an account over which the research analyst has discretion or control. A short position in the securities of the subject company is held by the research analyst, by a member of the research analyst’s household, or in an account over which the research analyst has discretion or control. A long position in the derivative securities of the subject company is held by the research analyst, by a member of the research analyst’s household, or in an account over which the research analyst has discretion or control. A short position in the derivative securities of the subject company is held by the research analyst, by a member of the research analyst’s household, or in an account over which the research analyst has discretion or control. TD Securities Inc. and/or an affiliated company is a market maker, or is associated with the specialist that makes a market, in the securities of the subject company. TD Securities Inc. and/or affiliated companies own 1% or more of the equity securities of the subject company. A partner, director or officer of TD Securities Inc. or TD Securities (USA) LLC, or a research analyst involved in the preparation of this report has, during the preceding 12 months, provided services to the subject company for remuneration. Subordinate voting shares. Restricted voting shares. Non-voting shares. Common/variable voting shares. Limited voting shares.

Additional Important Disclosures

Enbridge Inc. (ENB-T)
(as of 11-Jul-11)
$35

Linda Ezergailis
160

Distribution of Research Ratings
Distribution of Research Ratings^ Investment Banking Services Provided*

14
$30

9 8
$25

10 11

12 13

140

120

REDUCE 3%

7 2 4 6 5
100

BUY 59%

80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 62%

$20

1

3

80 1: 10/7/08; ALB, $46.00 tgt 2: 11/5/08; BUY, $46.00 tgt 3: 11/18/08; BUY, $43.00 tgt 4: 2/13/09; HLD, $44.00 tgt 5: 7/15/09; BUY, $46.00 tgt 6: 11/4/09; BUY, $47.00 tgt 7: 12/7/09; HLD, $49.00 tgt 8: 7/28/10; HLD, $51.00 tgt 9: 10/5/10; HLD, $53.00 tgt 10: 11/3/10; HLD, $58.00 tgt 11: 11/17/10; HLD, $57.00 tgt 12: 2/3/11; HLD, $58.00 tgt 13: 3/17/11; HLD, $59.00 tgt 14: 5/11/11; HLD, $60.00 tgt

$15

60

HOLD 38%

20% 10% 0% BUY

34% 3%

$10

40 Recommendations A LB: Action List Buy; SPB: Speculative Buy; BUY: Buy; HLD: Hold; TND: Tender; RDC: Reduce Notes IC: Initiated Coverage CC: Ceased Coverage AC: Analyst Change SC:Coverage Suspended R: Reorganization

HOLD

REDUCE

$5

20

$0 15/ 07/ 2008 08/ 08/ 2008 03/ 09/ 2008 29/ 09/ 2008 23/ 10/ 2008 18/ 11/ 2008 12/ 12/ 2008 07/ 01/ 2009 02/ 02/ 2009 26/ 02/ 2009 24/ 03/ 2009 17/ 04/ 2009 13/ 05/ 2009 08/ 06/ 2009 02/ 07/ 2009 28/ 07/ 2009 21/ 08/ 2009 16/ 09/ 2009 12/ 10/ 2009 05/ 11/ 2009 01/ 12/ 2009 25/ 12/ 2009 20/ 01/ 2010 15/ 02/ 2010 11/ 03/ 2010 06/ 04/ 2010 30/ 04/ 2010 26/ 05/ 2010 21/ 06/ 2010 15/ 07/ 2010 10/ 08/ 2010 03/ 09/ 2010 29/ 09/ 2010 25/ 10/ 2010 18/ 11/ 2010 14/ 12/ 2010 07/ 01/ 2011 02/ 02/ 2011 28/ 02/ 2011 24/ 03/ 2011 19/ 04/ 2011 13/ 05/ 2011 08/ 06/ 2011 04/ 07/ 2011 28/ 07/ 2011

0

Current as of September 2, 2011 ^ Percentage of subject companies under each rating * Percentage of subject companies within each of the category—BUY (covering Action List BUY, BUY and three categories (BUY, HOLD and REDUCE) for which Spec. BUY ratings), HOLD and REDUCE (covering TD Securities Inc. has provided investment banking services within the last 12 months. TENDER and REDUCE ratings).

Price Close

Changes

Price Relative to S&P/TSX Utilities

Research Dissemination Policy TD Securities makes its research products available in electronic and/or printed formats and simultaneously distributes them to its institutional clients who are entitled to receive them. The Action Notes are distributed by email, and are available in PDFform on First Call, Bloomberg, Reuters, Capital IQ, FactSet and TheMarkets.Com. Research Reports are distributed by email; they are also printed and distributed by courier to our entitled clients. PDFs of Reports are available on First Call, Bloomberg and Reuters. All research is available by password to entitled institutional clients at https://www.tdsresearch.com/equities

Action Notes

September 12, 2011 Equity Research

4 of 4

Research Ratings ACTION LIST BUY: The stock's total return is expected to exceed a minimum of 15%, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12 months and it is a top pick in the Analyst's sector. BUY: The stock’s total return is expected to exceed a minimum of 15%, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12 months. SPECULATIVE BUY: The stock's total return is expected to exceed 30% over the next 12 months; however, there is material event risk associated with the investment that could result in significant loss. HOLD: The stock’s total return is expected to be between 0% and 15%, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12 months. TENDER: Investors are advised to tender their shares to a specific offer for the company's securities or to support a proposed combination reflecting our view that a superior offer is not forthcoming. REDUCE: The stock’s total return is expected to be negative over the next 12 months. Overall Risk Rating in order of increasing risk: Low (7.2% of coverage universe), Medium (33.8%), High (48.8%), Speculative (10.2%) Analyst Certification Each analyst of TD Securities Inc. whose name appears on page 1 of this research report hereby certifies that (i) the recommendations and opinions expressed in the research report accurately reflect the research analyst's personal views about any and all of the securities or issuers discussed herein that are within the analyst’s coverage universe and (ii) no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the provision of specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst in the research report. Disclaimer This report is produced entirely by TD Securities Inc. Although the information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that TD Securities Inc. believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy, and as such, the information may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions, estimates and other information included in this report constitute our judgment as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. TD Securities Inc. will furnish upon request publicly available information on which this report is based. TD Securities (USA) LLC has accepted responsibility in the United States for the contents of this research. TD Securities Limited has accepted responsibility in Europe for the contents this report. Canadian clients wishing to effect transactions in any security discussed should do so through a qualified salesperson of TD Securities Inc. Canadian retail investors are served by TD Waterhouse Canada Inc., a subsidiary of The Toronto-Dominion Bank. U.S. clients wishing to effect transactions in any security discussed should do so through a qualified salesperson of TD Securities (USA) LLC. European clients wishing to effect transactions in any security discussed should do so through a qualified salesperson of TD Securities Limited. Insofar as the information on this report is issued in the U.K. and Europe, it has been issued with the prior approval of TD Securities Limited and only to persons falling within Articles 19 and 49 of the Financial Services & Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001, namely persons sufficiently expert to understand the risks involved. This report has been distributed in Hong Kong through The Toronto-Dominion Bank (Hong Kong Branch), which is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. TD Securities Limited is providing financial services to wholesale clients in Australia in reliance on Class Order CO 03/1099. No recipient may pass on the information contained in this report to any other person without the prior written consent of TD Securities Inc. TD Securities Inc., TD Securities (USA) LLC and TD Securities Limited are wholly owned subsidiaries of The Toronto-Dominion Bank. TD Securities Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Copyright 2011 by TD Securities. All rights reserved. Full disclosures for all companies covered by TD Securities can be viewed at https://www.tdsresearch.com/equities/disclosures by TD Securities' institutional equity clients.

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