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Analysis of Factors Affecting Gold Price

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Indian Institute Of Management Lucknow
August 2013

A MICROECONOMIC STUDY ON GOLD

Submitted to Professor Sanjay K Singh

By
Section E, Group J
Aman Doharey (PGP30244)
Mahesh Raja R (ABM11045)
Prerna Pal (PGP30265)
Rohit Mandappalli (PGP29341)
Shradhha MeryllinePanna (PGP30280)
Swagata Das Chowdhury (PGP30419)
Tanuj Kumar Lodhi (PGP30420)

Table of Contents

Introduction Background Protection Requirement Elasticity Of Gold Gold Consumption Scenario in India

Need and Objective Of Study Research Methodology Tools and Techniques Hypotheses

Data Analysis 1. US Dollar 2. Crude Oil 3. Silver 4. Inflation 5. Sensex Values

Findings and Conclusions

INTRODUCTION
This report emphasizes on studying, interpreting and illustrating the various economic factors affecting the consumption and price of the precious metal Gold. We examine the impact of factors that maybe reason for such distortion and also see how the change in gold price impacts other commodities in the open market.
Background
Used as a sovereign since ages, gold has always been a sought after commodity. The price variation has almost always been upwards and has had a steep rise in this trend. A few pointers about Gold can be inferred as below.
Production
Gold is majorly obtained through mining, other sources may include recycling, trading etc. Through these sources gold enters the market.
Requirement
Gold is an essential commodity in any country’s economic state. It is used in several ways namely – Jewellery, Industry, Retail Investment, ETF etc. Its value is unaffected relating to the currency of any nation so it is used by market investors as a hedge against economic dwindles.

Figure I

Due to its stability and immunity to economic ups and downs gold enjoys superiority as an investment option.

Elasticity of Gold
As a commodity gold is like any other good, following the laws of supply and demand as a normal good. In normal economic conditions, it has a fairly elastic demand. The demand curve of gold is given below.
Figure II
The above chart shows the price elasticity of demand in various sectors of its usage. Major uses of gold are for jewellery, investment as hedge and in industry for electronics, dentistry etc.
As can be interpreted from the chart: * The jewellery industry is highly sensitive to price change. Consumers in countries like India and China proportionately reduce the purchase of gold when prices increase. * The investment section of gold is relatively very inelastic and has a certain Griffin good behaviour. This is because even if the price increases the investors are willing to buy more gold as it is important for hedging in crisis. * The industrial use of gold is unavoidable so it is very oblivious to the change in price. At any given price the industry demand is constant owing to crucial production requirements.
Gold consumption scenario in India
India is the second largest consumer of Gold in the world. There is not much internal production leading to heavy imports of gold to satiate the countries’ growing demand. Not only is the inflow of gold into India through regular imports but a major share has been through black market imports. Consumption follows a seasonal variation and is usually high during festive seasons (Dhanteras, Dusshera, Diwali .etc).

Need and Objective Of Study
There are a number of reasons why gold is viewed as separate from rest of the commodities mainly because it is viewed as point of resort in times of political and economic distress.
To analyze the different factors which affect the price of gold.
To study and analyze the impact of exchange rate of USD with INR on gold prices.
To study and analyze the impact of prices of crude oil on the gold prices.
To study and analyze the impact of prices of silver on the gold prices.
To study and analyze the impact of Inflation on the gold prices.

Research Methodology
As part of the economics research project on finding a quantitative relationship between gold prices and other factors like prices of crude oil, silver prices, inflation rates etc we conducted a research through various sources like newspapers, books, journals, e-journals, websites, magazines and the related. The major source of information was World Gold Council (WGC), World Bank and Bloomberg resource database. The period taken in to study was from 2003 to 2013.

Hypotheses :
1. Hypotheses Assumed (H0) : Gold Prices do not depend upon Dollar exchange rate
2. Hypotheses Assumed (H0) : Gold prices do not depend upon crude oil prices
3. Hypotheses Assumed (H0) : Gold prices do not depend upon the silver prices
4. Hypotheses Assumed (H0) : Gold prices are not affected by the inflation rates
5. Hypotheses Assumed (H0) : Gold prices do not depend upon sensex value

Tools and Techniques
A quantitative analysis of the various factors affecting gold prices has been done through regression models. Various analysis has been performed like trend analysis and many parameters like standard deviation, R2 values, standard deviation, standard error and correlation coefficients have been computed to quantify those analysis and predict the relation in numbers.

Data Analysis
The factors that affect gold prices have been mentioned below and also how changes in these factors affect the gold prices is evaluated quantitatively.
1. US Dollar
2. Crude oil price
3. Silver prices
4. Inflation rates
5. Sensex Values
The analysis is as follows

1. US Dollar
Gold is mostly traded in dollar. When US Dollar demand falls, investors around the world invest more in gold as it being a safe option. Thereby demand as well as price of gold increases. Gold price and US dollar shares inverse relationship with each other.
Similarly investors shift their investment from gold to US Dollar if US Dollar price increases. This causes decrease in demand and subsequently price of gold. Gold is generally used as a hedge against currency risk. It can also have a positive correlation with US Dollar when some external factors have greater influence. For instance during recession some people may invest heavily in Gold while other might invest in US Dollar assuming it more safer option. In this situation value of both Gold and US dollar will increase.

Year | gold prices per 10 gms | Indian rupee rate(INR/USD) | 2004 | 5850 | 45.28 | 2005 | 7000 | 44.01 | 2006 | 8400 | 45.17 | 2007 | 10800 | 41.2 | 2008 | 12500 | 43.41 | 2009 | 14500 | 48.32 | 2010 | 18500 | 45.68 | 2011 | 26400 | 46.61 | 2012 | 31799 | 53.34 | 2013 | 29190 | 58.44 | Multiple R | 0.777531095 | R Square | 0.604554603 | Adjusted R Square | 0.555123929 | Standard Error | 6362.206661 | Observations | 10 |

| df | SS | MS | F | Significance F | Regression | 1 | 495056240.1 | 495056240.1 | 12.23035308 | 0.008112403 | Residual | 8 | 323821388.8 | 40477673.6 | | | Total | 9 | 818877628.9 | | | |

| Coefficients | Standard Error | t Stat | P-value | Lower 95% | Upper 95% | Intercept | -51750.8527 | 19617.59522 | -2.637981 | 0.02980657 | -956989.1084 | -6512.597 | X Variable 1 | 1447.51947 | 413.9090433 | 3.4971922 | 0.008112403 | 493.0435002 | 2401.99543 |

Interpretation :
The following can be deduced from the above tables :
1. R Square value is around 60% which is due to the large difference between the actual and predicted values. It implies that 60% variation in prices of gold are explained by US Dollars exchange rates.

2. Also the t value is 3.49 greater than the tabulated value 2.001 (or using the 2-t thumb rule since no of observations is greater than 20) which shows that the null Hypothesis is rejected. Therefore it can be said that the exchange rate do affect the prices of gold significantly.

3. Zero value does not lie between the t-stat values which reinforces the fact that the t-stat value is significant.

2. Crude Oil
Crude oil is one of the contributing factors for inflation. The price of crude oil has an inverse effect on the economy i.e. the economy always falls down as the price of crude oil rises. In order to prevent themselves from this inflation people invest in gold. Thus in a way we can see that a relationship exists between gold and crude oil prices. The discussion will be clear once the quantitative analysis has been done.
Due to its immunity to economic extremities, gold is the most sought after exchange commodity. It has a stable purchasing power and can be effectively used to hedge inflation. This is the competitive advantage of gold over paper currencies.

Year | Crude oil | Gold | | ($/bbl) | ($/troy oz) | 2003 | 28.90 | 363.51 | 2004 | 37.73 | 409.21 | 2005 | 53.39 | 444.84 | 2006 | 64.29 | 604.34 | 2007 | 71.12 | 696.72 | 2008 | 96.99 | 871.71 | 2009 | 61.76 | 972.97 | 2010 | 79.04 | 1224.66 | 2011 | 104.01 | 1569.21 | 2012 | 105.01 | 1669.52 | 2013 | 104.08 | 1411.46 |

| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Regression Statistics | | | | | | Multiple R | 0.887371257 | | | | | | R Square | 0.787427748 | | | | | | Adjusted R Square | 0.763808609 | | | | | | Standard Error | 231.4141155 | | | | | | Observations | 11 | | | | | | | | | | | | | ANOVA | | | | | | | | df | SS | MS | F | Significance F | | Regression | 1 | 1785362.23 | 1785362.23 | 33.3385457 | 0.000268094 | | Residual | 9 | 481972.4357 | 53552.49285 | | | | Total | 10 | 2267334.666 | | | | | | | | | | | | | Coefficients | Standard Error | t Stat | P-value | Lower 95% | Upper 95% | Intercept | -212.3099872 | 209.9028964 | -1.01146764 | 0.338211327 | -687.1433279 | 262.5233534 | X Variable 1 | 15.59389534 | 2.700730751 | 5.773954079 | 0.000268094 | 9.484417923 | 21.70337275 |

Interpretation :
The following can be deduced from the above tables:

1. R Square value is around 78% which is due to the difference between the actual and predicted values. It implies that 78% variation in prices of gold are explained by crude oil prices.

2. Also the t value is 5.77 greater than the tabulated value 2.001 (or using the 2-t thumb rule since no of observations is greater than 20) which shows that the null Hypothesis is rejected. Therefore it can be said that the crude oil prices do affect the prices of gold significantly. Here it is important to know that there is great impact of the current economic scenario. It can be analysed from the graph and the table that there is more correlation in some time period.

3. Zero value does not lie between the t-stat values which reinforces the fact that the t-stat value is significant.

3. Silver
Gold provides protection against the decreasing value of currency. Whenever inflation is above normal levels the investment in gold acts as a hedge. Traditionally it has been observed that the relative prices of consumer goods and real assets such as gold or land are not affected by inflation. As a result of which a change in inflationary rate tends to change the prices of these commodities by the same rate. Added to that gold is one of the most liquid resources so it acts as a good investment option. As inflation reduces the buying power for the consumers to gold demand from the jewellery and other retail sectors could decrease as a result of it. So during times of high inflation the demand for gold would be driven more from investment sector rather than jewellery or retails sectors. Year | Gold | Silver | ($/bbl) | ($/troy oz) | ($/troy oz) | 2003 | 363.51 | 4.88 | 2004 | 409.21 | 6.66 | 2005 | 444.84 | 7.31 | 2006 | 604.34 | 11.56 | 2007 | 696.72 | 13.39 | 2008 | 871.71 | 15.00 | 2009 | 972.97 | 14.64 | 2010 | 1224.66 | 20.15 | 2011 | 1569.21 | 35.22 | 2012 | 1669.52 | 31.14 | 2013 | 1411.46 | 23.85 |

Regression Statistics | | | | | | Multiple R | 0.970188 | | | | | | R Square | 0.941265 | | | | | | Adjusted R Square | 0.934739 | | | | | | Standard Error | 121.6421 | | | | | | Observations | 11 | | | | | | | | | | | | | ANOVA | | | | | | | | df | SS | MS | F | Significance F | | Regression | 1 | 2134164 | 2134164 | 144.2315 | 7.65E-07 | | Residual | 9 | 133171.1 | 14796.79 | | | | Total | 10 | 2267335 | | | | | | | | | | | | | Coefficients | Standard Error | t Stat | P-value | Lower 95% | Upper 95% | Intercept | 154.1547 | 74.34068 | 2.073626 | 0.067964 | -14.0156 | 322.325 | X Variable 1 | 46.47738 | 3.870006 | 12.00964 | 7.65E-07 | 37.72282 | 55.23194 |

Interpretation :
The following can be deduced from the above tables :

1. R Square value is around 94% which is due to the small difference between the actual and predicted values. It implies that 94% variation in prices of gold are explained by crude oil prices.

2. Also the t value is 12 which is greater than the tabulated value 2.001 (or tabulated value = 2 using the 2-t thumb rule since no of observations is greater than 20) which shows that the null Hypothesis is rejected. Therefore it can be said that the silver prices do affect the prices of gold significantly.
3. Zero value does not lie between the t-stat values which reinforces the fact that the t-stat value is significant.

4. Inflation
Gold provides protection against the decreasing value of currency. Whenever inflation is above normal levels the investment in gold acts as a hedge. Traditionally it has been observed that the relative prices of consumer goods and real assets such as gold or land are not affected by inflation. As a result of which a change in inflationary rate tends to change the prices of these commodities by the same rate. Added to that gold is one of the most liquid resources so it acts as a good investment option. As inflation reduces the buying power for the consumers to gold demand from the jewellery and other retail sectors could decrease as a result of it. So during times of high inflation the demand for gold would be driven more from investment sector rather than jewellery or retails sectors. Year | Demand(in tonnes) | Inflation(CPI) | Price(/10g, Rs) | 2003 | 528 | 4.7 | 5,435.10 | 2004 | 617.7 | 3.767238 | 5,955.60 | 2005 | 709.1 | 4.246353 | 6,301.30 | 2006 | 712 | 6.145522 | 8,796 | 2007 | 771.1 | 6.369997 | 9,223.70 | 2008 | 823.2 | 8.351816 | 12,142.60 | 2009 | 642.4 | 10.87739 | 15,111.30 | 2010 | 1006.3 | 11.9923 | 17,997.30 | 2011 | 986.3 | 8.857845 | 23,624.10 | 2012 | 864.2 | 9.312446 | 28,639.40 | 2013 | 975 | 10.90764 | 26,428.00 |

Regression Statistics | | | | | | Multiple R | 0.712033 | | | | | | R Square | 0.506992 | | | | | | Adjusted R Square | 0.452213 | | | | | | Standard Error | 119.1082 | | | | | | Observations | 11 | | | | | | | | | | | | | ANOVA | | | | | | | | df | SS | MS | F | Significance F | | Regression | 1 | 131302.4 | 131302.4 | 9.25527 | 0.013967 | | Residual | 9 | 127680.9 | 14186.77 | | | | Total | 10 | 258983.3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | Coefficients | Standard Error | t Stat | P-value | Lower 95% | Upper 95% | Intercept | 477.0528 | 107.4139 | 4.44126 | 0.001621 | 234.0658 | 720.0398 | X Variable 1 | 39.60922 | 13.01972 | 3.042248 | 0.013967 | 10.15656 | 69.06188 |

Interpretation :
The following can be deduced from the above tables :

1. R Square value is around 50% which is due to the large difference between the actual and predicted values. It implies that 50% variation in demand of gold is explained by inflation rates.

2. Also the t value is 3.04 which is greater than the tabulated value 2.001 (or tabulated value = 2 using the 2-t thumb rule since no of observations is greater than 20) which shows that the null Hypothesis is rejected. Therefore it can be said that the inflation rates do affect the demand of gold significantly and hence the prices of gold.

3. Zero value does not lie between the t-stat values which reinforces the fact that the t-stat value is significant.

5. Sensex Values
Sensex is a stock market index of the 30 most actively traded trade companies in the Bombay Stock Exchange. Since gold is used as a hedge against economic volatility one would expect an inverse relation between gold prices and Sensex from an investment point of view. On the other hand if the increase in Sensex is related to an economic upturn then the demand of gold could actually increase and drive prices higher. Gold also appears safer as an investment option compared to stock since it is very liquid even in times of economic distress. As a result of which gold link exchanged traded funds have gained popularity after the recent economic recession. Year | Closing value of sensex | Price (/10g, Rs) | Demand(in tonnes) | 2003 | 5838.96 | 5,435.10 | 528 | 2004 | 6602.69 | 5,955.60 | 617.7 | 2005 | 9397.93 | 6,301.30 | 709.1 | 2006 | 13786.91 | 8,796 | 712 | 2007 | 20286.99 | 9,223.70 | 771.1 | 2008 | 9647.31 | 12,142.60 | 823.2 | 2009 | 17464.81 | 15,111.30 | 642.4 | 2010 | 20509.09 | 17,997.30 | 1006.3 | 2011 | 15454.92 | 23,624.10 | 986.3 | 2012 | 19426.71 | 28,639.40 | 864.2 | 2013 | 21170.68 | 26,428.00 | 975 |

Year | price elasticity | 2004 | 0.172334294 | 2005 | 0.264391091 | 2006 | 0.001162464 | 2007 | 0.138180968 | 2008 | 0.01784919 | 2009 | -0.060902078 | 2010 | 0.126091476 | 2011 | -0.003554418 | 2012 | -0.024345503 | 2013 | 0.445695897 |

Regression Statistics | | | | | | Multiple R | 0.718326648 | | | | | | R Square | 0.515993174 | | | | | | Adjusted R Square | 0.462214637 | | | | | | Standard Error | 6520.117381 | | | | | | Observations | 11 | | | | | | | | | | | | | ANOVA | | | | | | | | df | SS | MS | F | Significance F | | Regression | 1 | 407892582.1 | 407892582.1 | 9.594779057 | 0.012772979 | | Residual | 9 | 382607376 | 42511930.67 | | | | Total | 10 | 790499958.1 | | | | | | Coefficients | Standard Error | t Stat | P-value | Lower 95% | Upper 95% | Intercept | -1258.125526 | 5525.566626 | -0.227691676 | 0.824974419 | -13757.82565 | 11241.5746 | X Variable 1 | 1.102557105 | 0.355945579 | 3.097544036 | 0.012772979 | 0.297352264 | 1.907761946 |

Interpretation :
The following can be deduced from the above tables :

1. R Square value is around 51% which is due to the large difference between the actual and predicted values. It implies that 51% variation in demand of gold is explained by sensex values.

2. Also the t value is 3.09 which is greater than the tabulated value 2.001 (or tabulated value = 2 using the 2-t thumb rule since no of observations is greater than 20) which shows that the null Hypothesis is rejected. Therefore it can be said that the sensex values do affect the price of gold significantly.
3. Zero value does not lie between the t-stat values which reinforces the fact that the t-stat value is significant.

Findings and Conclusions
1. Hypothesis Assumed (H0) : Gold prices do depend upon the dollar exchange rate.
2. Hypothesis Assumed (H0) : Gold prices do depend upon crude oil prices.
3. Hypothesis Assumed (H0) : The silver prices do affect the gold prices.
4. Hypothesis Assumed (H0) : The inflation rates do affect the gold prices.
5. Hypothesis Assumed (H0) : The sensex values do affect the gold prices. There is a positive relation between closing values and the gold prices.

Gold price and dollar price share an inverse relation. Gold price and crude oil price share a positive correlation

References
Books:
Foreign Exchange by C. Jeevanandam
Management Research Methodology by K. N. Krishnaswamy, Appa Iyer Sivakumar, M. Mathirajan

Websites: www.worldbank.com www.gold.org www.rbi.org www.kitco.com www.financemanual.com www.x-rates.com www.tradingeconomics.com www.oil-price.org www.goldresearch.org.in www.gold.org www.investopedia.comwww.wickipedia.com www.bseindia.com www.moneycontrol.com www.rateinflation.com m

Research papers by:
WGC (2010),World Gold Council. The 10-year gold bull market in perspective, World GoldCouncil,5-7
Devdutt Pattanaik (2010): “Sacred Gold”, World Gold Council, November, 12-15.

Thank You

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