Presentation to the Parliamentary Portfolio Committee for Water and Environmental Affairs, 29 March 2011, Parliament, Cape Town

“If we do not know where we are going, we could claim a step in any direction as progress”
(Overheard during a robust discussion on the Presidency’s outcome‐based approach to prioritisation, planning and reporting)

“Set a target for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions as part of our responsibility to protect the environment and promote sustainable development, and to participate in sharing the burden with the global community under a common framework of action”
(One of the climate change resolutions of the ANC’s 52nd National Conference in Polokwane in 2007)

Presentation overview
The mitigation challenge – the South African Greenhouse Gas (GHG) profile A quick introduction to Arithmophobia Concerns around the numbers. The ‘non‐numbers’ –
The Long‐Term Mitigation Scenarios’ (LTMS) Required by Science trajectory – “our aspirational goal” Cabinet’s 2008 ‘peak, plateau and decline’ directive The 2009 ‘Copenhagen Undertaking’

Finding a definition that is sensitive to the concerns. A possible way forward.

South Africa’s GHG profile (2000)

South Africa’s GHG profile – Energy Emissions

South Africa’s GHG profile – Fuel Combustion Energy Industries

South Africa’s GHG profile – Initial update figures

Arithmophobia ‐ Fear of Numbers
Arithmophobia is also known as 'numerophobia'.
Having a fear of numbers has an adverse effect on the persons who suffer from it. It hampers them from carrying on with their normal day to day activities. People who suffer from the fear of numbers find it difficult to learn anything that is related to arithmetic and mathematics. This fear of numbers could have been brought on by an unpleasant experience or situation in the past. The effect of which has been so severe that the