Free Essay

Assignment 3

In:

Submitted By vimalgs
Words 983
Pages 4
Simulation of loss of revenue for JET copiers due to breakdown.

The probability of machine repair time is discrete. We use the Monte-Carlo process to generate random numbers. In the Monte Carlo process, values for a random variable are generated by sampling from a probability distribution. We will transfer the ranges of random numbers for each Repair time value to a table Repair Time,y | Probability of repair time | Cumulative probablility | Ranges of Random number | 1 | 0.20 | 0.2 | 0-0.2 | 2 | 0.45 | 0.65 | 0.21-0.65 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.9 | 0.66-0.9 | 4 | 0.10 | 1.0 | 0.91-1.0 |

We use the function =Rand() in excel to generate random numbers in the range of 0-1.00

The following is the continuous probability function for time between breakdowns (weeks), x: f (x) = x/18, 0<= x <=6 weeks
The area under the curve, f(x), represents the probability of the occurrence of the random variable x. Therefore, the area under the curve must equal 1.0 because the sum of all probabilities of the occurrence of a random variable must equal 1.0.By computing the area under the curve from 0 to any value of the random variable x, we can determine the cumulative probability of that value of x, as follows:
F(x)=0∫x (x/18) dx=(1/18) 0∫x x dx =(1/18) |x2/2 0|x
F(x)=x2/36
Cumulative probabilities are analogous to the discrete ranges of random numbers we used in previously. Thus, we let this function, F(x), equal the random number r2, r2 = x2/36 and solve for x, x= 6 √ r2
By generating a random number, r2, and substituting it into this function, we determine a value for x, “weeks.”(However, for a continuous function, the range of random numbers must be between zero and one to correspond to probabilities between 0.0 and 1.00.)

As they use uniform probability distribution for loss of revenue per day. The following is the uniform probability function for loss of revenue per day ($), z: f (z) = 1/600, $200<= z <=$800
The area under the curve, f(z), represents the probability of the occurrence of the random variable x. Therefore, the area under the curve must equal 1.0 because the sum of all probabilities of the occurrence of a random variable must equal 1.0.By computing the area under the curve from 0 to any value of the random variable z, we can determine the cumulative probability of that value of z, as follows:
The cumulative probability of z can be shown as
F(z)= 200∫z (1/600) dx=(1/600) 200∫z 1dx =(1/600) |z 200|z
F(z)=(1/600)(z-200)
Cumulative probabilities are analogous to the discrete ranges of random numbers we used in previously. Thus, we let this function, F(z), equal the random number r3, r3 = (1/600)(z-200) and solve for z, z=200 + 600 r3
By generating a random number, r3, and substituting it into this function, we determine a value for z, “$.”(However, for a continuous function, the range of random numbers must be between zero and one to correspond to probabilities between 0.0 and 1.00.)

Now, we will manually simulate the existing breakdown and repair system to see how the simulation model is developed.

The column B is filled with random numbers.A random number using the “=Rand()” function is used to generate a number in B12 and is copied in B13:B23.These are r2.
Now using the formula for Time between breakdown in weeks, x= x= 6 √ r2 we write in C12 “=6*SQRT(B12)”.This is copied upto C23.Now the column of cumulative time is filled up by using D13 “=D12+C13”.
The column E is filled up by using the random number function again.
Now we need to be able to generate demand values for each of these random numbers in column F.We accomplish this by first covering the cumulative probabilities and the demand values in cells B4:C7 with the cursor. Then we give this range of cells the name “Lookup.”This can be done by typing “Lookup” directly on the formula bar in place of B6. Next, we enter the formula “=VLOOKUP(E12,Lookup,2)” in cell F12 and copy it to the cells in the range F13:F23.This formula will compare the random numbers in column F with the cumulative probabilities in B4:B7 and generate the correct demand value from cells C4:C7.
The column G is filled up by using the random number function again. These are r3
Now using the formula for loss of revenue per day, z=200 + 600 r3 .We fill up cell H12 with “=200+600*G12”.This is copied in the range G13:23.

Now the loss of revenue per day is multiplied by repair time to give an estimation of loss of revenue in selling copies when the copier is down and waiting for repair. The cell I12 is filled with “=F12*H12”.This is copied in range of cells I13:I23.

I25 shows the total revenue loss for a year due to breakdown of copiers. For this simulation it is $13,905.17.

As the total downtime for 1 year is more than $12000 they should consider buying a backup copier.Now this is not an accurate prediction. The simulation has a few limits: 1. It was performed only for a year. It should be performed for a larger time period and a years loss of revenue calculated by averaging over many years. 2. Daily revenue is not a uniform probability distribution and varies cyclically according to time of the year. That is not taken into account for this simulation.

Similar Documents

Premium Essay

Assignment 3

... The PID is needed in order to terminate a frozen or otherwise misbehaving program with the kill command. This command makes it possible to end a program that cannot otherwise be stopped except by rebooting (i.e., restarting) the system, and it is thus an important element in the stability and robustness of Unix-like operating systems. Assume that the following files are in the working directory: $ ls intro notesb ref2 section1 section3 section4b notesa ref1 ref3 section2 section4a sentrev Give commands for each of the following, using wildcards to express filenames with as few characters as possible. a. List all files that begin with section. $ ls section* b. List the section1, section2, and section3 files only. $ ls section[1-3] c. List the intro file only. $ ls i* d. List the section1, section3, ref1, and ref3 files. 1. $ ls *[13] 2. Give an example of a command that uses grep a. With both input and output redirected. $ grep \$Id < *.c > id_list Chapter 9 Number 1 Explain the following unexpected result: $ whereis date date: /bin/date ... $ echo $PATH .:/usr/local/bin:/usr/bin:/bin $ cat > date echo "This is my own version of date." $...

Words: 922 - Pages: 4

Premium Essay

Pt1420 Unit 3 Assignment

...and non-linear functions of the input variables. In this there are three integer input variables(A,B and C) and four paths through the procedure under test. The nodes of the control flow tree represent a linear code sequence of statements between each selection. The leaf nodes 2,4,6 and 7 finish with an end if and will eventually exit the procedure. These nodes represent the different alternatives which the roots can have(ex. Real, complex, etc.). If the conditions are true the next left child node will be executed, if not then the right node. Nodes 1, 3 and 5 are the branch nodes and they determine the next branch to be executed depending on its condition and input data. Points to note about the procedure under test are: 1. One of the input variables , A, is involved directly in an equality condition(A=0); 2. D is a non-linear function of the input variables, and is involved in two conditions controlling a total of three paths; 3. D is involved in an equality(D=0); 6.4) Triangle classification problem The triangle program involves both linear and non-linear functions of the input variables. It uses equality and inequality relational operators. The complete triangle program has three integer input variables A, B and C, one output variable TRI_KIND,27 nodes,14 paths and the longest path has 13 nodes through the software. It is a bigger and more complex procedure than the quadratic equation solver. The output variable returns the type of triangle corresponding to the three input...

Words: 728 - Pages: 3

Premium Essay

Student

...1 This will apply to all assignments in this class. Answer the following questions: Chapter 2 1. Short Answers [1 point each, 2 points total] 1. What does a professional programmer usually do first to gain an understanding of a problem? The first thing that a professional programmer usually do first to gain an understanding of a program is to closely relate customer (Interview ) to inquire or gather information about the problem. 2. What two things must you normally specify in a variable declaration? The two things normally specified in a variable declaration are the variable type and identifier. 2. Algorithms / Pseudocode [1 point each, 5 points total] 1. Design an algorithm that prompts the user to enter his or her height and stores the user’s input in a variable named height. Declare height Display “Enter Your Height” Input Height Display “Height” 2. Write assignment statements that perform the following operations with the variables a and b. - Adds 2 to a and stores the result in b. - Subtracts 8 from b and stores the result in a Set b=2+a Set a=b-8 3. Write a pseudocode statement that declares the variable cost so it can hold real numbers. Floating Point-Variable 4. Write a pseudocode statement that assigns the value 27 to the variable count. Count:=27 5. If the following pseudocode were an actual program, what would it display? Declare Integer a = 5 Declare Integer b = 2 Declare Integer c = 3 Declare Integer result ...

Words: 1823 - Pages: 8

Premium Essay

Week 2 Assigment

...Week 2 Assignment: Understanding Effective Money Management Assessment A, Part 1: Creating a Personal Financial Statement - Assets | 1 point | Car: Bluebook value $1250.00Cash: $378.00Savings Accounts: $826.00 | Assessment A, Part 2: Creating a Personal Financial Statement - Debts | 1 point | Rent: $750.00Electric/ Gas bill: $131.75Cable/ internet/ Phone bill: $80.42Credit Card: $31.00Cell phone bill: $72.37 | Assessment A, Part 3: Identify Money Management Tool | 1 point | Explain to Monica how the money management tools were identified. | Students should explain how they evaluated various cash management products and services. | Assessment A, Part 4: Creating a Personal Financial Statement – Steps | 1 point | Drag the steps listed on the right into their correct sequences on the left. When done click the Send button | Step 1: I got all my financial stuff together – bills, loans, bank statements, etc. | Step 2: I balance my checkbook. | Step 3: I decided what were my assets and what were my debts. | Step 4: I enter my assets in the program. | Step 5: I enter my debts in the program. | Step 6: The program gave me a Net worth figure at the end. | Assessment B: Creating a Monthly Cash Flow Statement ...

Words: 255 - Pages: 2

Premium Essay

Andy Owes Bill a Debt.

...Law Written Assignment 3 Case Study 1 Parks, a 7-foot, 265-pound center for the San Diego Slick, objected when his contract was assigned from the ABC Corporation to the XYZ Corporation, the team’s new owner. The change of owners did not cause a change in the composition of the team although a new coach was hired. Parks’s compensation and his responsibilities remained the same. Was this contract assignable? Facts of the Case: 1) Parks contract was assigned from the ABC Corporation to XYZ Corporation. 2) Parks compensation and his responsibilities remained the same. Issues: 1) The reason why we are in court today is to identify if Park’s contract was assignable. Rules of the Law: 1) Personal Service Contract – The parties agree that a personal service contract may be assigned. This allows the trade of an athlete from one team to another team. 2) Notice of Assignment – Assignee is under a duty to notify the obligor that the assignment has been made and performance must be rendered to the assignee. 3) Anti-Assignment Clause – Prohibits the assignment of rights under the contract. 4) Approval Clause – requires that the obligor approves any assignment of contract. Analysis & Conclusion: Since we do not have all the facts we can assume the following: 1) Parks contract did include the Personal service contract. 2) Notice of assignment was made by XYZ Corporation. 3) Parks contract did NOT include Anti-Assignment Clause. ...

Words: 495 - Pages: 2

Free Essay

Study Habits

...STUDY HABITS OF SECOND YEAR BS-AVTECH STUDENTS OF PATTS COLLEGE OF AERONAUTICS S.Y 2013-2014 An Undergraduate Research Presented to The Languages Department of PATTS College of Aeronautics In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the course ENGL 211 – Technical Report Writing By Guevarra, Giorgio Martin C Guevarra, Lorenzo Miguel Jang, Jose, Yosalina, Leo Xander March 2014 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The researcher would like to express our thanks to the lord. Our God for his guidance towards everything we do In life, including this study that we had made, and for being an inspiration for us all to do our best in life. We give our thanks to Ms. Karen M. Millano, our adviser for ENGL 211, for carefully and patiently guiding us so that we may finish the thesis research, and for supporting us and believing in us, that we can accomplish our task finishing the thesis. To the respondents of this study, we express our gratitude because without them, this thesis research would not have been completed, we thank them for allowing us to conduct a survey during their spare time, and their patience and integrity in answering the survey. To our parents, for their support and everlasting patience and understanding for us. And lastly to our classmates, since they have been with us since the beginning of the semester and they had been our companions in everything we do for the subject ENGL 211. ABSTRACT STUDY HABITS OF...

Words: 413 - Pages: 2

Free Essay

Engeenering

...SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING YEAR 3 MECHATRONICS ASSIGNMENT LAB REPORT Reading an Analogue Voltage from a Potentiometer to turn a Motor on and off with reading of 40 Assignment 2 Owais Jahanzeb BENG Mechanical Engineering with buissness Lecturer: Dr. Tom Shenton Aim & Objectives The aim of this lab is to develop a functioning program for the PICDEM board to read an analogue signal from a potentiometer and turning a motor on or off if the signal exceeds a certain limit. The program should depict the function that it should turn the motor ON and OFF if the potentiometer reading is less than or equal to 40. The practical uses of such program can be seen in automotive , injection moulding machines, wood processing machines, modern temperature controlled plants, speed control torque operations. Developing Program 1 Figure 1. The schematic circuit & PICDEM board configuration for Program Figure 1. The schematic circuit & PICDEM board configuration for Program The objective of program is to read the correspondent voltage analogous to the potentiometer position and switch the motor on if the reading is over 40 and switch it off if the reading is less than or equal to 40, the value can be adjusted by twisting the screw clockwise and anticlockwise. The program works by implementing the following code. PIC program for Test of potentiometer with value less equal to 40 with comments: include <p16f917.inc> extern DisplayDigit1, DisplayDigit2...

Words: 427 - Pages: 2

Premium Essay

Sfds

...ASSIGNMENT - 3 Answers 1 Answer 2 Answer 3 4. For what types of workloads does SJF deliver the same turnaround times as FIFO? ANSWER: - In the above case if the jobs are same in size or the jobs periodically applied (i.e. first shortest job then later second shortest job and continues) then the turnaround time of SJF is same as FIFO. 5. For what types of workloads and quantum lengths does SJF deliver the same response times as RR? ANSWER: - The response time delivered by SJF is equal to the response time of RR but this happens only when all the jobs arrived are at the point when the planning quantum of RR is bigger than the bigger occupation to be administrations in order of increasing size. 6. What happens to response time with SJF as job lengths increase? Can you use the simulator to demonstrate the trend? ANSWER: - If you suppose the length of the job increases then average response time varies (increases).If every job is sorted in increasing job order than the last job response time will be equal to the sum of current job and previous (n-1) jobs. In this way if the size of the job increases the response time will also increases for all larger jobs. 7. What happens to response time with RR as quantum lengths increase? Can you write an equation that gives the worst-case response time, given N jobs? ANSWER: - In the case of RR, the response time increases as the quantum lengths increases. This happens because the waiting time of a process for its turn to...

Words: 286 - Pages: 2

Free Essay

Management Accounting

...Management Accounting Individual Assignment 1. Variable manufacturing cost per unit = (323,000,000-160,000,000-24,000,000-100,000,000) 850,000 = $45.88 per unit Fixed manufacturing cost per unit = $100,000,000 850,000units = $117.65 per unit Total manufacturing cost per unit= 45.88+117.65 = $163.53per unit 2. Fixed overhead rate= $100,000,000 800,000units =$125 per unit Production volume variance= (850,000 X 125)-(800,000 X 125) =$106,250,000-$100,000,000 = $6,250,000 Favourable 3. Absorption costing. | $ | $ | SalesLess: Cost of goods soldOpening inventoryProduction(850,000 X (255+125))(-)Ending inventory(30,000 X 405)Gross MarginAdjustments for production variance(850,000-800,000)x125Operating Income | 0323,000,000(11,400,000) | 450,000,000(311,600,000) | | | | | | 138,400,0006,250,000F | | | 144,650,000 | Income Statement for the year ended 31December 2012 4. Variable Costing Income Statement for the year ended 31 December 2012 | $ | $ | SalesOpening inventoryProduction(850,000 X 255)(-)Ending inventoryContribution MarginFixed factory overheadOperating income | 0216,750,000(7650,000) | 450,000,000(209,100,000) | | | 240,900,000(100,000,000) | | | 140,900, 000 | 5. Based on the calculations of absorption costing and variable costing for the year 2012,it would be better to calculate and measure using the absorption costing...

Words: 288 - Pages: 2

Free Essay

Misconceptions of Algebra

...the equality symbol misconception when they begin learning mathematics. Rather than understanding that the equal sign indicates equivalence between the expressions on the left side and the right side of an equation, students interpret the equal sign as meaning “do something” or the sign before the answer. This problem is exacerbated by many adults solving problems in the following way: 5 × 4 + 3 = ? 5 × 4 = 20 + 3 = 23 Students may also have difficulty understanding statements like 7 = 3 + 4 or 5 = 5, since these do not involve a problem on the left and an answer on the right. Falkner presented the following problem to 6th grade classes: 8 + 4 = [] + 5 All 145 students gave the answer of 12 or 17. It can be assumed that students got 12 since 8 + 4 = 12. The 17 may be from those who continued the problem: 12 + 5 = 17. Students with this misconception may also have difficulty with the idea that adding or subtracting the same amount from both sides of an equation maintains equality. Kieran gives this example: Solve for x: 2x + 3 = 5 + x 2x + 3 – 3 = 5 + x 2x = 5 + x – x – 3 2x – x = 5 – 3 x = 2 The answer is correct, but several steps of the solution contain incorrect equations. In summary, a student with this misconception will: Assume the solution to a problem is the number after the...

Words: 797 - Pages: 4

Free Essay

Prg/211 Calorie Count Tool

...Team B Calorie Count Tool PRG/211 May 5, 2014 Team B Calorie Count Tool PROBLEM STATEMENT Team B was asked to develop a program which would calculate the user’s daily intake of calories and measure those calories against the overall calories expended. The core purpose of this program will do two primary functions. First, it will record the user intake of calories as acquired through meals throughout the day. Second, the user will record caloric output associated with physical activity. This information will be calculated together to determine the caloric surplus or deficit for the user. In order for the program to execute accurately, and provide customized results, the user will be required to input personal data to include gender, age, weight, and height. This additional information is essential to determine the user’s default caloric burn rate, otherwise known as the basal metabolic rate (BMR). The BMR and the calories burned as a result of physical activity will be calculated against the intake of calories to determine the overall success for the user. As the program is executed it must: * Record user name, age, height, weight to enable more accurate calculations * Record the users specific caloric values entered for each meal * Record the user activity and caloric burn values for that activity * Calculate the basal metabolic rate (BMR) for the individual * Subtotal the total caloric values for the day * Combine the physical activity and...

Words: 1524 - Pages: 7

Free Essay

Mobile Service Provider

...11108944 Name: ASHWINI KUMAR Roll No. : RE3R02B32 PART- A 1. Ans :- (a) unary and ternary operator Unary operator:- It pecedes an operand . The operand (the value on which the operator operates ) of the unary operator must have arithmetic or pointer type and the result is the value of the argument. Example:- If a=5 then +a means 5 If a=0 then +a means 0. If a=-4 then +a means -4. Ternary operator:- It precedes an operand. The operand of the unary operator must have arithmetic type and the result is the negation of the operand’s value. Example:- If a=5 then –a means -5 If a=0 then –a means 0 If a=-4 then –a means 4. (b) Assignment and equalto operator Assignment operator:- Equal to operator: An assignment operator assigns value In this we put the To a variable. value as it is. Example – Example- a*=5 means a=5*5. Int a; a=5 means a is initialized with 5 if(a==5) { return true; } return false; (c) Expression and statement Expression:- An expression is any valid combination of operators , constants , and variables. Example:- ...

Words: 399 - Pages: 2

Free Essay

Book Report

...condition evaluates to any non-0 value (positive or negative), the condition is considered as a “true” condition and the statement following the if is executed; otherwise this statement is not executed. Relational Operators In C Relational operator | Meaning | Example | < | Less than | age < 30 | > | Greater than | height > 6.2 | <= | Less than or equal to | taxable <= 200000 | >= | Greater than or equal to | temp >= 98.6 | == | Equal to | grade == 100 | != | Not equal to | number !=250 | In creating relational expressions, the relational operators must be typed exactly as given in the above table. Thus, although the following relational expressions are all valid: age > 40 length <= 50 temp >= 98.6 3 < 4 flag == done day != 5 The following are invalid: length =< 50 /* operator out of order*/ 2.0 >> 3.3 /*invalid operator*/ flag = = done /*spaces are not allowed*/ Relational expressions are also known as conditions. The if and if-else Statements The simplest C selection statement is the one-way if statement having the syntax if ( expression ) statement; In this construction, the statement following the if (expression ) is only executed if the...

Words: 1617 - Pages: 7

Free Essay

Pay for Eprformance

...Pre course assignment 2: Performance Related Pay The assignment is to write a paper about Performance Related Pay (2000 words) Performance Related Pay is receiving a great deal of attention. On the one hand (collective) labour agreements are increasingly including arrangements that relate to pay-forperformance, at the same time there is also strong resistance. Trade unions have never been enthusiastic proponents subject to certain conditions, but opinions are also divided in employers' circles. Pay-for-performance is even named as a root cause for the crisis of the financial sector and for the collapse of some companies. A number of companies have recently announced that they will abolish or change their pay- for-performance systems. When organizations have performance related pay systems in place, (front line) managers usually play an important role. They make pay decisions, or provide information for these decisions. The paper is also a preparation for a class debate about pay for performance in the fourth lecture. The debate will be about the statement: “The introduction of individual pay for performance contributes to an improvement in a company's (financial) performance” The paper will be written from one of three starting points: 1. You are against the statement: all arguments you discuss should underpin that the statement is false 2. You are in favour of the statement: all arguments you bring forward should underpin that the statements is true 3. You are undecided: find...

Words: 453 - Pages: 2

Premium Essay

Delegation

...Delegation Nikevia Gilmore COMM/215 January 19, 2015 Carol J. Amato, M.A. Table of Contents Introduction…………………………………………………………….3 What is Delegation……………………………………………………...3 Pros of Delegation……………………………………………………….3 Con of Delegation………………………………………………………..4 Conclusion……………………………………………………………….4 References/Work Cited…………………………………………………5 Introduction TV personality Anthea Turner once said, “The first rule of management is delegation. Don't try and do everything yourself because you can't.” (Delegation Quotes) Business owners, such as the owner of a Chick-fil-A restaurant located in Marlton, NJ, have to be willing to delegate tasks to their employees and trust that the assigned employee is going to complete the tasks adequately so he can be freed up to take care of other things associated with their business and to avoid unnecessary stress. What is Delegation? A Latin term originating sometime between 1605 and 1615, the term “delegation” is the act of giving control, authority, a job, a duty, etc., to another person. There are three basic elements of delegation: the assignment of duties, granting of authority to enable the subordinates to perform the duties assigned, and the creation of obligation on the part of subordinate to perform duties in an orderly manner. The process of delegation involves four steps. The first step is the assignment of duties to subordinates which entails the owner to decide exactly what duties he wants the subordinate to complete. The second step is the...

Words: 509 - Pages: 3