COVER PAGE

The inevitable changes among vehicular modal share in the Transport system thirty years from now

Phumelela Kubheka, 200675320

This Assignment is submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements of the Bachelor of Technology Degree in
Transportation Management

In the

Department of Transport and Supply Chain Management

Faculty of Management

At the University of Johannesburg

03 April 2014

Table of contents

1.1 Introduction …………………………………………....3
2. Transport issues …………………………………….….5
2.1 Amount of travel ……………………………………....5
2.2 Purpose of travel ……………………………………...6
2.3 Public Transport accessibility ………………………..7
2.4 Affordability …………………………………………....8
2.5 Accessibility to shopping complexes, and medical facilities …………………………….…...10

3. The Bicycle modal share ………………………………11

4. Conclusion………………………………………………14

5. References………………………………………………15

Introduction

It is important to remember that transport should be made accessible and affordable to people of all income groups. Poverty is seen as a relative concept, and the view is taken that we should not be considering one South African poverty problem, but rather strategies for developing the metropolitan, urban and rural poor households. The households have been further grouped into quintiles according to their incomes. In my quest to answer how likely trends are going to change, I will give an analysis of a broad range of transport issues. For example; the overall amount of travel; travel purpose; public transport accessibility, affordability and attitudes of customers; vehicle ownership; accessibility to shopping, education and medical facilities.

The first issue that is apparent and seem to emerge from analysis is the difference between the rural and metro/urban poverty experiences.
Secondly, there is an issue of better accessibility for the urban poor than the metropolitan poor. The third issue is the overarching importance for the poor of the walking trip. The fourth issue is the overall pattern of decreasing accessibility with decreasing income. Finally, the important role of the minibus taxis to the poor is clear. As a vehicular mode, it dominated in the poor sector.

My argument is based on the economic gap of income groups. I will highlight how the rich are also affected by recession and bad state of our current condition in the economy. Most people are forced to leave their cars and use public transport. With an increase use of public transport, people will save on fuel and maintenance costs. To add to that, low congestion volumes will result in reduced road maintenance costs for towns and provinces.
There is likely a upward trend in the price of oil, when oil supplies appear to be peaking, this with have massive consequences for our economies.

The rational user will assess the cost and benefits associated in selecting a mode, which provides the greatest net profit.

2. Analysis method (the Quintiles)
The metropolitan, urban and rural population of South Africa are not the same size. The metro areas comprise 4.56 million households; the urban areas comprise 3.48 million households and the rural areas comprise 4.39 million households.

I.

2. Transport issues

2.1 Amount of travel

Firstly, the fewer trips taken overall in the rural setting indicate the difficulty in access: longer walking times to some destinations and lack of affordable or reasonable motorised transport for others in rural areas, as well as fewer opportunities for work and shopping.

Secondly, the general trend is for an increase in metro/urban trip-making activity as incomes increase, with the rich travelling 20% more than the poor in metropolitan, and 10% more in urban areas.

From the table we can see that the car driver mode is steady because most people are entering the working environment than before especially women and the disabled.
The minibus-taxi percentages have also increased by 10% between 2002 and 2011, because this is the mode that caters for most people in the middle class. The taxi is able in most occasions to take passengers from door to door and it is fast and affordable.

The cost of travelling by private vehicle is critical, including the need for accurate parking charges in the CBD. An international trend, which has been successful in London, is the implementation of congestion charge for access into certain areas of the CBD. The money taken from the charge covers the operational costs of the service as well as upgrading aspects of the public system.

2.2 Purpose of travel

For the poor in metropolitan areas the most popular purposes were shopping, visiting and educational destinations. For all income groups combined, the most popular purposes are distinctly different with work and shopping being popular.

From the table we see a decrease of the train being utilised because it is unreliable, even though it is one of the cheapest modes. The public has a perception that the bus and train are slower than taxis. Safety is a main concern on Trains leading to a decrease trend in these two modes being utilised by the commuter.

There has been cases were the train arrives late to the stations or never ever even make it in other days. From this discontentment and bad service, we will see a greater decrease of this mode being utilised by the public. Optimistically if Transnet and passenger rail Management are committed to provide safe, reliable and efficient transport operations, maybe people might return to using trains again.

Roads are supposed to make mobility, the movement of people and goods. On contrary, many roads have become too congested with traffic and no longer meet their main purpose of improving accessibility. Moreover, most roads have been developed with the car driver as the principal user. The results are sobering. Road transport accounts for 17% of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions and 10% of global greenhouse gas emissions. It is also responsible for up to 90% of urban air pollution. More than 1.3 million people are killed every year and more than 50 million are seriously injured.
Our cities are losing the vitality and ease of travel preferred by citizens, visitors and investors alike.

To take a more sustainable mobility path, the critical role of non-motorised transport (NMT) needs to be recognised and factored into road-infrastructure investments.
The most natural and energy-efficient ways to travel shorter distances are walking and cycling- which have been sidelined by politicians and planners in many places over the century in favour of transport.

2.3 Public Transport accessibility

From the table we notice that there is a growth in Minibus-taxi usage, mainly because it is the most accessible and affordable as far as time utility is concerned.
Considering issues of general accessibility to public transport, as measured by percentage of households within 15 minutes walk to a station or stop, it is clear that in metropolitan areas good public transport access is income dependent, except for the highest income brackets which are either poor served by public transport or perceived to be.

In urban areas, access to all modes is reasonably similar across income groups. Train accessibility is very small because it is awkward and it takes longer when walking to reach the train stations.
The trend in metro/urban areas for a declining time to public transport stops with increasing income. The usage of the bus mode remains constant because there is better access time to buses, for example, Metro bus is working closely with Rea Vaya or Bus Rapid Transport (BRT) to ensure people arrive safely and in time and also to combat traffic on the roads.
In all areas, taxi service penetration for the poor is relatively high, when compared to the train and bus. Few of the urban people are unable to access any taxi service at all. The train service reaches the least numbers of people.
For the train and bus, the rich are marginally better served (despite their relatively low usage) whilst for taxi the picture is distinctly different. The role of the minibus-taxi as a mode of choice for the working class or poor is to serve best in terms of network accessibility.

2.4 Affordability

Nearly 50% of urban households are spending more than 20% on their hard-earned income on public transport.
It could be argued that the bus subsidies should, to an extent, be assisting with only 3-5% of the poor reporting bus usage.
Comparing travel time to income, there is a general trend of decreasing journey time to school or university with increasing income in the metropolitan areas. This may well be caused by the increased motor trips as income increases (affordability). The poorest rural children, however, have a shorter journey time than the income group higher.

An analysis of the longest travel times to education institutions (schools), this made other students to be extremely tired and exhausted due to long travel time by walking.

Depending on area of 9-20% of poor scholars face walk times of more than 46 minutes to and from school. Hence, in a typical rural classroom of 40 children, 11 children will have walked for more than 30 minutes, and two of these of these for more than 60 minutes. With the introduction of buses, we will see a decrease of the amount of walking these scholars endure.
Transport planners should ensure adequate pedestrian infrastructure (well-drained, safe, secure and avoiding major obstacles such as freeways or rivers); by liaising with education authorities for those students whose safety is comprised by walking long distances.

What about the journey to work?

For many individuals the journey to work in the morning peak time is a major problem. On a typical morning, a person would take a short walk to the taxi rank to catch a taxi to town then get off to catch a bus. There is inter-modal dependency among modes; they are no longer working in isolation, rather together to provide a good service to the user.
Whist congestion in the morning peak is an issue for those with economic efficiency. When employees arrive late at work, it decreases their productivity.

South Africa is experiencing high unemployment rates, while those individuals who are employees receive minimum wage.

Employer programmes which aim to encourage the use of alternative transport, such as public or non-motorised transport or car-pooling, to get to work in a more reliable, convenient and safe system.

2.5 Accessibility to shopping complexes, medical facilities

Accessibility is the main ingredient/ factor in ensuring mobility for all users-it is facilitated by both the proximity of destinations and convenient, affordable transport. Walking and cycling are extremely energy and space efficient. In urban area, distances of 3-5km are ideal for trips on foot, bicycle or low emission electrified transport like the scooters and low-emissions.

The life of the people in the city has been simple and easy with most shops being just a walk away. Approximately 92% of households walking to the nearest shop, with the remainder mainly using taxis.

In Less than 15 minutes access times to food shopping by income and area, the metropolitan poor having slightly better access to the nearest shop than the next two higher income groups, despite the higher income groups making more use of taxi and car.

For example when considering access to Post Offices, it can be seen the walk mode percentage has decreased by 2% between 2002 until 2011. I predict a greater decrease in walking because accessibility has been improved as infrastructure and services are brought closer to people.

With most people in the working class being able to afford a decent car, we see that they will access these medical institutions with greater ease.

II. The bicycle modal share

The bicycle mode contributes to less than 1% because of lack of promotion on the benefits offered by cycling compared to other modes.
Government should increase its investment in Non-Motor Transport (NMT) infrastructure.
Walking and cycling are highly resource-efficient in both energy and space and the ability to use these modes make the cities more attractive and inviting.

Recognising the massive benefits of a clean environment, safer roads and better mobility for increased investments in NMT infrastructure will help a commuter a lot. Current transport systems depend on motor vehicles; incur high costs from congestion, pollution and road fatalities.

With the increase of investments in NMT infrastructure as part of efforts for greening our economies, improving global road safety and reaching the Millennium Development Goals for reducing poverty. Sustainable transport is the key to multiple important issues such as climate change, promote economic growth, and improve road safety.

These are the practical reasons why the bicycle has been neglected:

• Cycling is best suited for shorter distances, 3km to 15km. For an example, one cannot ride the bicycle to work because it is a long distance to travel. • The behaviour of motorists on the road is not accommodating to cyclers. There is a lack of tolerance and respect for them. Engineers and designers should design roads in such a way that vulnerable road users such as pedestrians and cyclists are protected from high-speed impact. NMT facilities will drastically cut the number of serious injuries and fatalities, while also improving traffic flow for motorists.

• Integration of NMT networks with other modes, especially the taxi and bus modes, in order to maximise usage and impact. Since cycling is suitable for shorter distances, cycling paths to the bus stations and other motorised transport expands the possible range of resource-efficient travel and increases use of public transport.

Benefits offered by the bicycle mode

Planning ahead to accommodate changing demands in transport provide direct and indirect benefits. In most developed countries it is possible to drive from point A until B with reasonable convenience, comfort and safety, although traffic speeds may be reduced by congestion under urban-peak conditions. In contrast, it is often difficult to travel without a car due to poor walking and cycling conditions and inadequate and public transit services, due to in part to transport planning practices that favour motor-oriented improvements over other types of transport improvements.

Cycling, public transit tend to impose less external cost than motor travel, planning reforms that allow travellers to shift from cars to alternative modes tend to provide external benefits. Even people who never used these modes benefit from reduced traffic congestion, road and parking subsidy costs, and accident risk and air pollution. Since physically, economically and socially disadvantaged people tend to rely on these modes, improving them helps achieve social equity objectives.

Commonly used transport project economic evaluation models, which evaluate transport system performance based primarily on motor vehicle travel speeds, recognize the benefits of alternative mode improvements if that will reduce traffic congestion and vehicle operating costs. However, overlooks the potential value of vehicle ownership cost savings (if improvements to alternative modes reduce household vehicle ownership requirements), parking cost savings, health benefits from more physical activity, or many environmental benefits. These include air, noise and air pollution emission reductions.

Conventional evaluation assumes that travellers always prefer faster options, and so places no value on transport system improvements that provide qualitative benefits such as improved convenience, comfort and enjoyment, for example, by being able to bicycle rather that drive.

Conclusion

The economic and social transport planning of a developing country have different intentions and so will inevitably be in conflict, but for a lengthy time the economic style, planning from America and United Kingdom has dominated. South Africa will require a pro-poor agenda.

At a practical level pro-poor transport, planning would:

➢ Improve bus routing between informal areas and key services ➢ Provide safe, secure, direct, well-maintained walk and cycle paths, and road crossing facilities, especially to schools. ➢ invest in the upgrading of taxi terminal facilities ➢ Social support networks, will demonstrate to be a major trip purpose amongst the poor. These informal networks are necessary to offset the economic hardships faced by those with little income.

Car driver/passenger travel grew and still growing tremendously due to favourable technical, demographic and economic trends. Although car transport will continue to be an important mode, saturation of vehicle ownership and travel, aging population, rising fuel prices, increasing urbanization, improved mobility and accessibility options. Growing health and environmental concerns, changing transport policies are all contributing to reduce car travel and increase demand for alternative modes.

The degree changes in travel demands translate into changes in travel activity depends on the responsiveness of planning.
Various planning reforms are needed to respond to changing demands include better demand modes that account for demographic and economic factors that affect travel demands, and more comprehensive and multi-modal planning that accounts for objectives, impacts and options that are often overlooked or undervalued in conventional planning. Planners must become more skilled at evaluating and improving transport options, and more articulate at communicating the full benefits of a more diverse and efficient transport system.

References

1. Department of Transport (DoT) (2005) Key results of the national household travel survey 2. Gannon, C and Liu, Z. (1997) Poverty and Transport. World Bank paper. TWU-30. http: www.worldbank.org/transport/pov&tra_resources.htm 3. Cameron J & Maeder T 1995: Evolving Urban Transport Policy: A Review of Critical Issues and Emerging Policy Principles, Urban Forum, Volume 6, No2 4. White Paper on National Transport Policy, South Africa (1996) Department of Transport 5. Simpson, B J (1994). Urban Public transport today. E & FN Spon, London