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Built the Future

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U.S. and European equity-index futures and Asian stocks retreated with the dollar, while Treasuries advanced after better-than-estimated Chinese growth and production data dimmed prospects for wide-scale stimulus to spur expansion.

Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures dropped 0.4 percent by 7:13 a.m. in London as contracts on the Euro Stoxx 50 Index slid 0.4 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index retreated after its biggest jump in two years yesterday. Ten-year Treasury yields declined five basis points. The yen jumped 0.6 percent and the euro strengthened 0.2 percent as the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2 percent. Gold touched a five-week high.

While China’s economy expanded 7.3 percent in the third quarter from a year before, beating estimates for growth of 7.2 percent, it was still the slowest pace since 2009. China’s Communist Party leadership convenes its policy-setting plenum this week. The European Central Bank started buying covered bonds yesterday, people familiar with the move said, as it seeks to stave off the threat of deflation.

“China’s data shows growth remains lackluster in the second half even though the government undertook stimulus and injected liquidity in the market,” said Benjamin Tam, a Hong Kong-based portfolio manager at IG Investment Ltd. “There won’t be big stimulus but there could be mini stimulus in the coming months. The focus is on the fourth plenum to see whether there could be significant changes in the reform policy.”

The Asia-Pacific gauge surged 2.2 percent yesterday, the most since Sept. 7, 2012. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slid 0.5 percent yesterday, after earlier falling as much as 1.1 percent. European equities have led a rout that erased as much as $5.5 trillion from the value of shares worldwide amid speculation that the European Central Bank’s stimulus measures will not be enough to spur growth.

China Data

China’s gross domestic product expanded the least since the first three months of 2009. Thirteen of 22 economists polled last week said China will seek expansion of about 7 percent in 2015, down from this year’s government target of 7.5 percent.

Retail-sales growth slowed to 11.6 percent in September from a year earlier, down from 11.9 percent in August and versus an estimate for 11.7 percent. Factory production grew by 8 percent when economists predicted a 7.5 percent increase from a year earlier, up from 6.9 percent in the previous month.

The Hang Seng Index fell 0.2 percent after climbing as much as 0.3 percent immediately after the data was published. A gauge of Chinese shares in the city swung to a 0.3 percent loss after initially climbing on the better-than-estimated data. The Shanghai Composite Index retreated 0.4 percent.

China Mobile Ltd., the world’s largest carrier by users, slipped 2.4 percent in Hong Kong after posting a fifth consecutive drop in quarterly profit.

Global Macro

All 33 industry groups on Japan’s Topix slid today after its biggest advance since June last year. The yen strengthened for first time in four days, with the Nikkei 225 Stock Average tumbling 2 percent after surging 4 percent yesterday.

“The weakness in dollar-yen is correlating very closely with the decline in the Nikkei,” said Sean Callow, a currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney. “A lot of it gets back to the market still being lopsided, the speculative market having been long dollar-yen in an environment where the risks on U.S. data surprises are tilted to the downside,” he said, referring to a bet an asset will rise.

Ten-year Treasury notes yielded 2.14 percent, after closing little changed in New York. Yields on similar maturity Australian government debt declined 12 basis points, or 0.12 percentage point, to 3.19 percent. The Reserve Bank of Australia reiterated concerns that the country’s currency is still too high to help rebalance the economy, according to minutes of its October meeting released today.

Aussie, Apple

The Australian (GACGB10) dollar gained 0.5 percent to 88.26 U.S. cents, while the euro strengthened to $1.2828. The greenback weakened against 14 of 16 major currencies.

Shares of Apple Inc. (AAPL) climbed to $101.27 after hours in New York, after closing at $99.76 in ordinary trading. The company projected revenue would come in between $63.5 billion to $66.5 billion in the holiday quarter, just topping the $63.5 billion average analyst estimate. Apple’s fiscal fourth quarter results also beat projections, with net income rising to $1.42 a share, compared with the $1.30 a share predicted by analysts.

IBM, Dow

Apple said new, larger-screen iPhones will help boost sales by at least 10 percent during the October-through- December period, according to a statement. Profit for S&P 500 companies probably rose 5.9 percent in the third quarter -- a forecast that’s been revised upward from an increase of 4.8 percent as of Oct. 10 -- and sales increased 4 percent, according to analysts’ projections compiled by Bloomberg.

The Dow (INDU) Jones Industrial Average ended the U.S. day up 0.1 percent as a slide in International Business Machines Corp. limited gains. Futures on the index slipped 0.4 percent today.

IBM shares fell 7.1 percent in New York after the company ditched a five-year profit goal amid its struggle to transform quickly enough to cope with an industrywide shift to cloud computing. IBM, which accounts for 7.8 percent of the price-weighted Dow, shaved 84 points off the index to trim its advance to 19 points even as 24 of its 30 stocks rose.

U.S. stocks will outperform other equity markets for the rest of the year, Paul Tudor Jones, a billionaire hedge-fund manager, said at the Robin Hood Investors conference in New York, according to two people at the event who asked not to be identified because it was private. Jones, interviewed by fellow macro money manager Stan Druckenmiller, also predicted that a rally in the dollar may have ended and that there’s a bubble in global credit that will burst.

The ECB bought short-dated notes from Societe Generale SA and BNP Paribas SA, according to two people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified because the information is private. An ECB spokesman confirmed yesterday that purchases had started. Officials at SocGen and BNP weren’t immediately available to comment on the transactions.

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