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Bullwhip E

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LOGISTICA: EL EFECTO BULLWHIP Jose A. Páramo http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wLNdDSYqhNw

En el video se puede observar perfectamente que es el efecto bullwhip, por el cual los miembros de una cadena de suministros que se encuentran alejados del consumidor perciben una demanda con mayor oscilación y estacionalidad mientras que el consumo real del producto es casi lineal.
En este caso concreto vemos como por un hecho inesperado (lesión física que le impide salir de casa), el consumidor final de cerveza (Ben ) reduce su consumo(pasa a ser 0 durante esas semanas), lo que hace que el propietario del bar, ante este hecho, decida contactar con su proveedor para disminuir el volumen de los pedidos, pues dispone de reservas suficientes en su bar. Este hecho afecta directamente al proveedor, ya que aparece la incertidumbre de que va a hacer con todo el producto final que tiene en stock, y trae también como consecuencia la decisión de ajustar (reducir) la producción por parte de la fábrica de cerveza. Una vez Ben se recupera, decide celebrarlo, y para ello dobla su habitual consumo de cerveza, con lo que el dueño del bar, con la idea de satisfacer toda la demanda de su clientela contacta con su proveedor. El proveedor realiza varios pedidos a la fábrica de cerveza, la cual decide incrementar la producción hasta su máximo nivel. Con este ejemplo podemos observar como un pequeño cambio provocado por el consumidor final tiene un impacto de grandes dimensiones a lo largo de toda la cadena de suministro. Se trata de una cadena de suministros externa que implica la integración y coordinación de todos sus 4 miembros., por lo que estaríamos hablando de una cadena completa y/o extendida.

Causas del efecto:
• Previsiones de demanda no esperadas:
• Pedidos por lotes: cada miembro realiza pedidos al integrante superior de la cadena normalmente usando algún método de reposicion que tiene relación pero no esta totalmente acorde con la demanda esperada. Los pedidos se realizan con vistas a reabastecerse intentando que los posibles costes de almacenaje sean minimos.

Cuando se prevee un desabastecimiento de producto en el lugar físico de venta, los pedidos se realizan en cantidades superiores a las realmente necesitadas, teniendo en cuenta que ha tenido o va a tener lugar un pico en la demanda.

Posibles remedios para minimizar el efecto bullwhip:
1) Reducir incertidumbre en la demanda: conseguir un aumento de información entre los eslabones de la cadena que traigan consigo un menor nº de errores en la previsión de la demanda.
2) Reducir el plazo de entrega: permitiendo asi al vendedor de producto final disponer de el con mayor frecuencia, ofrenciendo de esta manera un mejor servicio al cliente. el problema es que las mejoras en este caso pueden derivar en mayores costes relacionados con el almacenamiento o el transporte.

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