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Canadian Dollar

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The Canadian Dollar
The Canadian dollar has seen its ups and downs compared to the US dollar for many years. This summary will go over the trends and causes of the shifting exchange rates of the Canadian Dollar and its impact on export and import of Canadian goods. It will also go over what could possibly be done to level out the decline of the Canadian Dollar and what the expectation is for the Dollar in the next five years.
15 Year Trend between the Canadian and the US Dollar
In the last 15 years the Canadian dollar has gone from being lower than lesser than UD dollar to almost equivalent and for a period higher to back to lesser than US dollar. In 2000 1 CAD was equivalent to 0.673519 USD; it continued downwards until around 2003 where it went up to 0.71 USD. From 2003 it continued to rise to a high of 0.944173 USD until 2009 where it dropped back to 0.880095. Since 2009 the yearly average has continued to rise one year and drop the next, in 2011 we had the highest exchange rate of 1 CAD to 1.011464 USD, unfortunately by 2015 it dropped to average of 0.794280 USD. (Canadian Forex, 2015).
Causes of Changes in Exchange Rates
There are 6 factors that influence exchange rates; difference in inflation, difference in interest rates, current amount deficits, public debt, terms of trade, and political stability and economic performance. (Bergen, 2015). Specific reasons for the drop of the Canadian dollar include the weak Canadian economy, falling oil prices, the Greek crisis and the Chinese stock crash. Canadian GDP has continued to drop in the recent months and doesn’t seem like it will be stopping its decline. Also given the new oil inventory in the US the Canadian export price of oil has dropped. The creditor proposal for Greece was a no thus triggering the prospect of Greece existing the Euro-zone. This causes a “risk off” environment which is bad for everyone but the yen or USD. Also the recent crash in Shanghai composite effects commodities like crude oil which is one of Canada’s exports. (Elam, 2015). Also take into account the $17.4 billion deficit which is being financed by unstable loans, Canadian corporations have had an outflow of $37 billion dollars in foreign investments which stunted the inflows into Canadian securities (National Bank, 2015). Combine all these factors and it leads to a dropping Loonie.
Effect on Canadian Exports to the US
When the CAD weakens importers of other countries are more likely to buy goods thus making the export industry in Canada rise. This is because compared to a strong CAD which makes it more expensive to buy Canadian goods, a weak one allows for larger purchases from economies that are stronger such as the US (Blackwell et al, 2014). Sept 30, 2015 the exchange rate is at 1 CAD to 0.74 USD which means it is cheaper for the States to purchase form Canada. For example when 1 CAD was equivalent to 1.011 USD (in 2011) there was a reduction in exports to the US like lumber. However now with 1 CAD to 0.74 USD the lumber exports to the US have risen considerably.

Effect on Canadian Imports to the US
While the dropping Loonie is good for exporters that isn’t the same for importers. With the dropping Loonie it has become more expensive to buy American goods for consumers as well as businesses. Around 2011 people were going across the border to shop on a regular basis, companies who normally purchased goods within Canada found it cheaper to buy them in the States. At one point it was the Canadian economy supporting the US economy after the 2008 crash. Now the tables have turned, people and businesses can’t afford to buy in the States because they would incur a loss given the state of the exchange rate (Blackwell et al, 2014). For example many small businesses like restaurants were bulk buying in the states because even when the dollar as at 0.9USD it was cheaper to purchase there, today though restaurants can’t afford to do so because the CAD is only worth less than 3 quarters in the states.
Bank of Canada Impact on Exchange Rates
One of the factors that determine exchange rates is GDP, currently the Canadian GDP is not as favorable as people are expecting. Factors that affect the GDP include consumptions of goods, capital investment, government spending, and import/export of goods. The Bank of Canada can increase capital investment or Government spending, both of which will increase the GDP.
Next Five Years Expectation
I don’t think the drop will last for five years, we will most likely see it rising again slowly within the next couple of years but whether it goes back to being equivalent to the US is unlikely. I think the main reason for the decline is the world economic problems with instability in Europe and Asia which are effecting foreign investments, decreasing Canadian GDP and the huge deficit which still remains unsolved. These issues do not seem like they will be resolved any time soon and when there are in the fixing stage it will probably take some time for the world economies to recover fully.

Bonus: What is Dutch Disease?
Dutch disease is when something gives a country large amount of foreign currency inflows which leads to appreciation of the country’s currency. This however has a negative impact on exports because the currency has risen thus making it more expensive for foreign countries to purchase the exported goods (Lexicon, 2015). In Canada’s case this occurred with oil, when more oil was being extrapolated in Canada the inflows increased making the currency go up (around 2011 currency was highest). This hit the export industry really badly, now in 2015 the dropping Loonie is increasing exports but stopping the inflow of investments because the economic stability is risky for investors when currencies go down.

Side note: It’s called Dutch Disease because of the “Dutch economic crisis in 1960s after the discovery of North Sea natural gas” (Lexicon, 2015).

References

Bergen, Jason V. 2015. 6 Factors That Influence Exchange Rates. Retrieved from http://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/04/050704.asp
Blackwell, Richard et al. January 2014. The Ripple Effect: How the Slumping Loonie Affects Businesses Across Canada. Retrieved from http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/the-ripple-effect-how-the-slumping-loonie-affects-businesses-across-canada/article16477693/
Canadian Forex. 2015. Yearly Average Exchange Rates for Currencies. Retrieved from http://www.canadianforex.ca/forex-tools/historical-rate-tools/yearly-average-rates
Elam, Yohay. July 2015. 4 Reasons Why the Canadian Dollar is Selling Off – USD/CAD Tops 1.27. Retrieved from http://www.forexcrunch.com/4-reasons-why-the-canadian-dollar-is-selling-off-usdcad-tops-1-27/
Lexicon. 2015. Definition of Dutch Disease. Retrieved from http://lexicon.ft.com/Term?term=dutch-disease
National Bank. 2015. Loonie Weakness to Persist. Retrieved from https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/en/rates-and-analysis/economic-analysis/forex.pdf

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