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Country Risk Assesment

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Country Risk Assessments

You are working for McDonalds Corporation. You want to do a Country Risk Assessment for
Iran for the current year to decide whether you should operate a Franchise there.

Explain how you would proceed?

The first thing I would want to do is analyze the product and determine the risk measures of operating in Iran, and I would accomplish this by conducting a country specific analysis. I would try to surround myself with people that have a very extensive knowledge of the target areas in Iran that I am looking to conduct the risk assessment for. I would also make sure to identify all the pros and cons and the potential problems that I may face trying to sell these product in this country. I would visit the country myself to get a more hands on feel for the country and also determine some of these potential problems that I may face. I would look at creating a broadly diversified global portfolio to determine where the investments should be allocated among developed, emerging and perhaps frontier markets. I would want to make sure that the investments are spread among several other areas in Iran to maximize diversification and minimize risk.

What data would you need; how would you use them?
I would conduct a correlation coefficient and use this data to help limit my risk. I would conduct a forecast to determine the credit risk posed by Iran, including a regularly reviewed country risk rating. I would look at the currency, sovereign debt and banking sector risks posed by Iran. I would also focus on looking at political, economic policy and economic structure risks. I would want the analysis to include short and medium term economic and political forecasts for the country.
Secondly, I would look at operational risk, to look at a broad range of potential threats that the business may face. This analysis would have to cover issues from politics,

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