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Credit Risk

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Submitted By highdimensions92
Words 1601
Pages 7
W. Ruland, Spring 2009

Credit Risk

The Issue

Will the loans will be paid on-time and in full.

Who Should Understand Credit Risk?

Borrowers

Prospective lenders including those who sell on account

Should they lend?
How should they structure the loan?

Shareholders

Potential purchasers of products or services

Credit Ratings

Important to the business

Influences the cost of borrowing; perhaps the ability to borrow,
Influences the market for its securities given that some investors such as certain pension funds may invest in a firm only if the credit rating exceeds a certain amount.

The firms pay the agencies to be rated.

Ratings are for specific debt issues; not the entire corporation. In early 2008, Defaultrisk.com reported that at that time, there were 64 rating agencies worldwide.

SEC registration. Nationally Recognized S Ratings Organizations are credit rating services that meet certain criteria enabling them to register with the SEC. Eight firms qualified when the book was published; increased to 10 (as of Fall 2008).

Page 4-25 managerial decision case. When businesses take measures to improve credit ratings, what are the potential costs?

Evaluating Credit Risk -- the Five C’s

Character

Expected reaction when things get rough

Capacity

Ability to generate future cash flow for loan service

Conditions

The future of the business and the economy

Capital

The balance sheet

Collateral

Tangible assets including personal guarantees

Estimating the Lender’s Expected Loss

Expected loss = Probability of default x Amount of loss given default

The Probability of Default

A function of the underlying business risks (based upon our business analysis)

Estimate cash flows to service debt

Structure the loan to minimize the probability of default Develop

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