Activity Guide 2012-13

Sub-Theme-VI

Energy Planning and Modelling
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Working Group of the sub-theme

Prof. A. Srinivasan Mr. Jayanta Kr Sarma Dr. Lalit Sharma Sheeraz Kirmani Dr. Kishor Kumar Baruah Mr. Sandeep Bhattacharjee

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Energy Planning and Modelling

1. Introduction
Planning is a process for developing a system and approach to fulfil a predefined goal and objectives on the basis of assessing the present scenario. Planning is meant for betterment. This betterment can be the strengthening resource base, efficient resource utilization and fulfilment of human needs. In case of energy planning it is targeted for meeting the present energy needs in an optimum and efficient way so that it may not destroy its ability to meet the future needs. Planning is a process for accomplishing purposes. It is a blue print of growth and a road map of development. It helps in deciding objectives both in quantitative and qualitative terms. It is setting of goals on the basis of objectives and keeping in the resources. A plan can play a vital role in helping to avoid mistakes or recognize hidden opportunities. Planning helps in forecasting the future, makes the future visible to some extent. It bridges between where we are and where we want to go. Planning is looking ahead. Forecasting is the process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes (typically) have not yet been observed. A commonplace example might be estimation for some variable of interest at some specified future date. Prediction is a similar, but more general term. Both might refer to formal statistical methods employing time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data, or alternatively to less formal judgemental methods. In any case, the data must be up to date in order for the forecast to be as accurate as possible. Forecasting can be described as predicting what the future will look like, whereas planning predicts what the future should look like. Scientific modelling is the process of generating abstract, conceptual, graphical or mathematical models of an event. Science offers a growing collection of methods, techniques and theory about all kinds of specialized scientific modelling. Modelling is an essential and inseparable part of all scientific activity, and many scientific disciplines have their own ideas about specific types of modelling. There is an increasing attention for scientific modelling in fields such as of philosophy of science, systems theory, and knowledge visualization. Traditionally, the formal modelling of systems has been via a mathematical model, which attempts to find analytical solutions enabling the prediction of the behaviour of the system from a set of parameters and initial conditions. One application of scientific modelling is the field of "Modelling and Simulation", which has a spectrum of Page 87

Activity Guide 2012-13 applications which range from concept development and analysis, through experimentation, measurement and verification, to disposal analysis. Projects and programs may use hundreds of different simulations, simulators and model analysis tools. A simulation brings a model to life and shows how a particular object or phenomenon would behave. Such a simulation can be useful for testing, analysis or training in those cases where real-world systems or concepts can be represented by models.

2. Energy planning and modelling:
Economic growth of a country is strongly dependent on the availability and access to energy. More than half the population of India does not have access to electricity or any form of commercial energy. Meeting the energy access, challenges and ensuring lifeline supply of clean energy to all, requires planning in capacity building and supply. The challenge is to ensure cost-effective energy supply at the same time conforming to norms set for minimizing global warming. Since the energy section involves large gestation lags, long-term planning is essential. The projected energy requirement of the fossil energy source in 2030 is cited below. According to planning commission of India, the country needs to increase its primary energy supply by 3 to 4 times, and electricity generation capacity by 5 to 6 times, if it is to meet the energy needs of all its citizens by 2032 and maintain an 8 % GDP growth rate. Despite a continuous increase in total installed capacity, the gap between supply and demand continues to increase. The underlying reason for such a demand is a growing population, urbanisation, industrial production, and income.
A scientific model brings out the simplified pattern out of complex data collected, analysed and interpreted in a study. This sub-theme differs from the rest of the sub-themes by bringing out the general concept and future predictions in a more abstract form. Without this specific generalization, the concerned project may become part of the other sub-themes. Please note that planning and modelling processes are completely different from making physical or working models of the systems under study. Model making is discouraged, in principle, in Children's Science Congress at all levels.

As far as India is concerned, coal will remain the major energy resource. Coal demand in 2011-12 is projected to be 731.1 million tonnes, whereas the projected domestic availability is only 680 million Tonnes. So, there is a shortage of 51.1 million Tonnes for 2011-12 even in the projected scale. The energy demand-supply gap (peak) in 2009, 2009 and 2011 were 11.7%, 12% and 13.4%, respectively. The distribution of primary commercial energy resources in the country is quite skewed. 70% of the total coal reserves is concentrated in eastern India, whereas the western part accounts for over 70% of the hydrocarbon reserves. Similarly the north has more than 70% of the total hydro potential. This leaves the south with only 6% of the total coal reserves and 10% of the total hydro potential. The above data summarises the need to plan the augmentation of renewable energy resources and strategies for effective distribution of energy to the entire populace. With energy saving potential of 25%, 30, 20%, 20%, 20% and 23% in industrial, agricultural, domestic, commercial, transport, and other sectors, respectively, there is plenty of scope for planning. For India there is a need for integrated energy planning. This means that at a particular place we must have multiple energy sources and these sources can be used depending upon the particular requirement i.e., for low grade work high grade energy should not be used. Hence there is need of integrated energy planning and for that appropriate models are required and in these models renewable energy sources will play a very vital role. Hence we need to explore renewable energy options at all levels. The need and relevance of energy forecasting is hence obvious. .Various new tools and methods for forecasting Page 88

Activity Guide 2012-13 have been developed. In the past, straight-line extrapolations of historical energy consumption trends served well. However, with the onset of inflation and rapidly rising energy prices, emergence of alternative fuels and technologies (in energy supply and end-use), changes in lifestyles, institutional changes etc, it has become imperative to use modelling techniques which capture the effect of factors such as prices, income, population, technology and other economic, demographic, policy and technological variables. The ethical pressure to use more of renewable and green energy has further complicated the prediction process. There is an urgent need for precision in the demand forecasts. In the past, the world over, an underestimate was usually attended to by setting up turbine generator plants fired by cheap oil or gas, since they could be set up in a short period of time with relatively small investment. On the other hand, overestimate was corrected by demand growth. Short-term demand forecasting also plays a role in the process of regulation. A precise estimate of demand is important for the purpose of setting tariffs. A detailed consumer category-wise consumption forecast helps in the determination of a just and reasonable tariff structure wherein no consumer pays less than the cost incurred by the utility for supplying the power.

Projected Primary Energy Requirement for India, 2030
Fuel Coal including lignite Oil Natural gas including coal bed methane (CBM) Total commercial primary energy Range of Requirements 632–1022 350–486 100–197 1351–1702 (All Assumed Domestic Range of Production Imports# 560 72–462 35 315–451 100 0–97 – 387–1010 in Mtoe) Import (%) 11–45 90–93 0–49 29–59

Note: # Range of imports is calculated across all scenarios by taking the minimum requirement and maximum domestic production as the lower bound and maximum requirement and minimum domestic production as the upper bound. Source: Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR), 2006.

3. Framework

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Children like you who tried their hands on such ideas, not only developed the models but won the laurels at national and international levels.

Electricity production at Sabarimala
Sabarimala, a pilgrimage site in Kerala, is thronged by around ten million devotees who offer coconut filled with clarified butter (ghee) which is placed in the burning fire. The continuous fire burning for almost three months period generates a lot of heat energy, which if is trapped and utilized for steam generation; enormous amount of electricity can be produced thereby to take care for the requirements for festival period.

Self-cooling of CPU
CPU, which gets heated with continuous use of the computer, if is covered with jacket carrying water, the water gets condensed and in turn keep the CPU cool.

4. Model Project
Project -I : Micro-level energy planning and modelling - start from your school
At micro-level, which comprise of your home, classroom, school, village or the likes, you can take up projects on energy planning and modelling. But before venturing into this let us understand the reason for undertaking it. Applications of energy are varied and for same application, different energies can be utilized, thus at the first step we need to understand energy services. Say for example, if drying clothes is an objective, it can be achieved by electricity (dryer in washing machine) or sunlight (spreading under the sun). So we need to identify the application and options available for energy services. In short, planning is nothing but matching the need with sources available for optimization. An exercise to be carried out at your school 1. Identify any one key area which you intend to plan for, let us say, fuel consumption. 2. We know that students reach school either walking, cycling, by school bus, public transport or their own vehicles. Now fuel is being consumed while you and / or your friends are being dropped and / or picked up from the school. Since vehicles are not only guzzlers of fuel but also loads the environment with pollution, which necessitates planning for optimal utilization of energy resources, and this can be done in the following way; 3. To begin with you need to collect some basic information like; a. Number of students in your class / school b. Number of students coming to school by different modes (i) walking, (ii) cycling, (iii) two wheeler, (iv) four wheeler, (v) shared vehicle, (vi) school bus, (vii) public transport, or (viii) others c. For two and four wheelers used, how much is the mileage given by the vehicle (km/litre) and how many trips are made by the vehicle (it would be 4 if dropped and picked up by someone and 2 if vehicles are self-driven d. Also gather information about the distance of their residence from the school e. Depict the data graphically and analyse. 4. Analysis of data would include fuel consumption by two and four wheelers used on daily basis. This would provide you with an idea about level to which fuel can be conserved. In addition, how much level of air and sound pollution (carbon dioxide load and decibel levels) is added to the environment. Page 90

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5. Next step is to identify options available, say for example switching to walking, cycling, school bus or public transport or any other idea that you have (like car pool, motorized bicycle) Continuing with the same idea let us further expand and find out how energy modelling can be done? We have understood that the present trend is to use vehicles including self-driven, which speaks of the pattern for future. Presuming that in times to come everyone would be driving motorized vehicles (e.g., motorized bicycle) to reach school let us develop a model for the same. Issues related to such vehicles are needed to be identified; charging of batteries of these vehicles being the most important of the all. Can we tap solar energy for this purpose? If yes, where can we install the charging units, at home or at school? How many hours we are at school, and can that period be utilized for charging the vehicles?, If yes, then where and how many solar panels are to be installed, how much charging is required for one vehicle, presuming 10% of the students switch over to such vehicles, what would be total requirement in your school? Go on working with open ended questions and at the end you would come up with certain model which would indeed be a cost-effective and eco-friendly solution to the problem you had identified at the beginning.

Project II: Planning for energy-efficient buildings
It is observed that now-a-days in many buildings even during the day when there is sunshine the buildings need to switch on the lights, which is wastage of energy. The buildings also require a lot of cooling for comfort. If the buildings are designed for north south orientation, glare free daylight and with appropriate shading devices this would reduce a lot of energy requirement in the buildings. If the predominant wind direction is also taken into account while planning for buildings then this would reduce a lot of cooling requirement of the building. If the building walls are properly insulated this would also reduce a lot of cooling requirement of the building. Each and every building should be a hub of innovation and energy efficient practices. The building should be aesthetically designed with several features of passive solar design, energy-efficiency and water and waste management systems. Following is the detailed outline of the different energy conservation measures that should be taken at any building      Passive solar design Glare-free daylight North South orientation Minimum windows on East West and South facades Shading devices on

The predominant wind direction should be taken into account in designing the open space. Energy-efficient lighting and daylight integration       Recess mounting luminaire fitted with CFL for task lighting. Surface mounted single/twin horizontal mounting CFL downlighter for task lighting and common areas. High lumen output and controlled light distribution Fitted with mirror optics reflectors and batwing louvers for glare-free uniform illumination Energy saving electronic ballast should be used Lighting load can be reduced from 2 W/sqft to 1 W/sqft Page 91

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 Where daylight is available, fixtures fitted with continuous dimming electronic ballast These fixtures may be controlled by light sensors  In areas with non-uniform illumination, occupancy sensors should be installed  Overall energy-saving potential is 70% Thermal Insulation of Walls Use of efficient double glazing window units helps significantly reduce the heat gained through window glazing in the summers and the heat lost in the winters without compromising on the day lighting integration and the levels of visual comfort. The walls that are exposed to the harsh solar rays have a stone cladding which is fixed to the wall by channels. The air gap between the wall and the stone cladding by itself acts as an insulation layer. On the facades rock wool insulation is also provided in the wall. Energy efficiency is further proposed to be enhanced by insulation in the roof slab The Campus should be equipped with three types of cooling systems; Variable refrigerant system Volume (VRS) system. This modern type of Air conditioning system which is similar to a split AC is highly efficient under partial loading conditions and beneficial to areas with varying occupancy. It allows customized control of individual zones, eliminating the use of chilled water piping, ducting and piping room. Earth Air Tunnel (EAT) The EAT can be used in rooms uses the heat sink property of the earth to maintain comfortable temperatures inside the building. The air that passes through the buried pipes gets cooled in summer and heated in winter. Depending upon the severity of the climate, supplementary system can be used. This gives energy saving of approximately 50% as compare to conventional system. Thermal mass Storage Thermal mass storage involves storing energy when available and using when required. Here cooling of thermal mass is done during night. This cool thermal mass is used to cool air in day time. This Fig: Earth Air Tunnel system gives an energy saving of almost 40%. Water Management  Buildings in the campus should be provided with low-flow fixtures such as dual flush toilets and sensor taps  This would result in 25% savings in water use Waste Water management  Treatment of waste water generated from biological process using a combination of micro-organisms and bio-media filter  Low area requirement for this treatment plant  Treated water meets the prescribed standards for landscape irrigation  Very low energy consumption for operation of the treatment plant Rain Water harvesting  Rainwater run-off from roof and the site will be used for recharge of aquifer through Page 92

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 Enhance the sustainable yield in areas where over-development has depleted the aquifer  Conservation and storage of excess surface water for future requirements  Improve the quality of existing groundwater through dilution

Project-III : Modelling grey water recycling in a colony
Factors such as growing population, decreasing quality of water resulting from pollution, and augmenting requirement of expanding industries and agriculture all lead to increasing demand for drinking water. It is estimated that one third of the world's population will suffer from chronic water shortage by the year 2025. India has already started facing impending crisis, most visible in the cities. The receding water level in supply sources also result in the shortage of water. On top of it the limited supply hours amplify the scarcity effect of water. Under these circumstances one needs to plan for optimizing the utilization of the precious commodity water. There are several ways by which we can plan for the conservation of this nature's gift and one of which is recycling. Again, recycling could be achieved through various means and one of which is recycling of grey water. Grey water, the water drained out from our bathrooms and kitchen, is being wasted in enormous amounts every day, by each household. Before you plan to design a model for grey water recycling in your locality or colony, you need to collect some basic information, including; 1. No. of houses 2. No. of households 3. Amount of water consumed per day (from monthly water bill of individual house or entire building as the case may be) 4. No. of vehicles of the residents 5. Amount of water used for washing the vehicles and frequency (daily, alternate days, weekly) 6. Presence of garden in the colony or locality 7. Duration and frequency for which the park is watered 8. Amount of water used up in watering the garden Based on this information and with the help of certain standards available, calculate amount of water being drained out as grey water from bathrooms and kitchen in the colony. Now add the amount of water being used up by washing of vehicles and watering the garden area. Can you make a plan for your colony or locality on these facts and figures, wherein grey water if recycled can be used for washing of vehicles, watering of the garden, and in addition, provided for flushing purpose to the toilets in every house. Page 93

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Projection for optimal utilization and conservation of water would not only cheer you up but also ensure the smile on the faces of future generation.

Project IV : Assessing present energy usage and projection for future requirement
Now let us consider your village or locality, wherein we would explore usage of energy and based on which we would try to project future requirements. To begin with, we would find out and collect following information on different applications and types of energy used; 1. Total energy used for cooking a. No. of LPG cylinders required for a month b. Total weight of fuel woods required c. Other sources used like electricity for heating (total wattage /1000 * number of hours used per day), kerosene, charcoal etc. 2. Total energy used for other types of heating 3. Total energy required for lighting like electricity, kerosene or other types of lamps used 4. Total fuel consumed for travelling including daily usage like going to school/office etc. and occasional travelling 5. Total energy used for agriculture, may be in the homestead for watering, ploughing and also the mandays used. 6. Total energy used for entertainment like TV, music systems etc. or AC. After summing the energy used for different purposes, divide the total by the number of members of each of the sample household of each group. The average of the total energy utilized for each group would give us the per capita energy requirement. Based on the trend of rise in population, the data for which can be obtained from the census information or competent authorities, of previous three decades, we can project the future population of the locality. This would give us the total energy requirement for an area. Likewise, we can also assess the energy requirement for different applications; like cooking, lighting, agriculture, etc.

5. Suggestive Project Idea
i. ii. iii. iv. v. vi. vii. viii. Assessing the energy (solar, wind and biomass) generation potential of any particular society or village Economic projections for energy generation from local energy resources Model for optimization of energy usage Planning for low energy buildings Energy planning for transport sector Modelling of windows for optimal utilization of energy Modelling of home/office interiors for efficient power consumption Modelling of energy efficient cooking systems

More information in Page 96
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Project idea put forwarded by the participants in the national orientation workshop (Project title only)
1. Advantage of public transportation - an evaluation 2. Awareness on energy conservation 3. Assessment of energy consumption school campus 4. Assessment of electricity loss in an human habitat area 5. Assessment energy consumption pattern in preparation of different type of food 6. Evaluation of energy requirement of different cooking device and identification of energy efficient devices 7. Energy audit in home 8. Energy audit of residential school 9. Assessing energy potentialities of different biomass 10. Assessing pattern of solar energy over an area 11. Assessing energy potentialities of different plant parts 12. Assessing wind energy potentialities in a coastal area 13. Assessing energy potentialities of cow dung cake 14. Estimation of energy consumption in irrigation using water pump 15. Identification different cooking fuel and evaluating their energy efficiency 16. Assessing intensity of solar radiation 17. Assessing electricity consumption in a locality 18. Assessing cold energy from fire fly 19. Assessing potentialities of zero energy refrigeration system uses in traditional society 20. Harnessing energy through microbial fuel cell using mud of lake/pond/tank/river 21. Improvisation of traditional chulla for multipurpose uses 22. Studies on use of firewood as fuel and its impact on indoor pollution 23. Impact electricity transmission line and street light on flora and fauna of a locality 24. Impact of raw coal transportation on human life 25. Traffic jam, energy consumption and pollution 26. Assessing impact of firewood collection on flora and fauna of a locality 27. Assessing energy potentialities and scope of improvisation of traditional water mill 28. Identification non-edible oil bearing seeds and its energy potentialities 29. Assessing biomass waste generated from agricultural practices and its energy potentialities 30. Assessing cow dung availability of village and estimating its energy potentialities Page 95

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31. Comparing efficiency of cooling and heating of houses made of different building material 32. Housing orientation and its impact on indoor light availability and heating and cooling conditions 33. Assessing the impact of surrounding environmental situation of houses and its impact on indoor housing environment with special reference to energy issues 34. Assessing the role of landscape in environmental balance and energy conservation 35. Study on energy efficient habitat planning 36. Modeling of energy efficient irrigation system 37. Evaluation of energy efficiency of different cooking practices 38. Assessing access to different infrastructure of services and its impact on energy consumption for transportation and planning for improvisation 39. Mimicking nature and designing energy efficient system/device 40. Evaluation energy efficiency of different traditional devices use for lighting 41. Assessing energy dynamics of traditional and mechanized agricultural practices 42. Energy audit of rural industries/cottage industries of a locality 43. Driving habit and its impact on fuel consumption 44. Behavioural aspects of using electronic gadgets and its impact on energy consumption 45. Planning for energy plantation for household energy security
Energy modeling approaches1

Energy planning from goal to policy implementation2

Source: 1. http://www.nieir.com.au/energy/models.htm 2. P. Balachandra “Integrated energy planning: Part I. The DEFENDUS methodology” Energy for Sustainable Development l Volume II No. 3 l September 1995, page 15-26

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