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Introduction Topic – Elasticity of Demand

Demand for Cars based on the Fuel Type and the Interest Rates offered by Financial Institutions. Under Professor Pratap Mohanty

By Group 4 EPGDIM (2012-14) Nupur Kinger (41) Rachit Luthra (46) Ravi Mohan Dabral (50) Rohit Jaswal (54) Udai (62) Table of Contents Page No.

1. | Executive Summary | 3 | 2. | Objectives | 4 | 3. | Methodology | 5 | 4. | Analysis of Objectives | 8 | 5. | Conclusions and Assumptions | 19 | 6. | References | 20 |

Executive Summary OVERVIEW
The new car market abounds with choice. A myriad of models, fuel type and financing options available face the new car purchaser; each different vehicle type carefully designed so as to display a combination that differentiates it from the competition.

From a consumer’s point of view, of course, the ‘attributes’ of a vehicle include not only its
Physical appearance and motoring capabilities (e.g. body style, performance
Specifications, number of doors and seats, equipment, etc.) but also its price, how much it costs to run and how much it costs to insure and tax.

The fundamental objective of this research is to understand how those various attributes
Determined households’ new car purchasing decisions during 2010-12
As detailed subsequently, our approach to achieving that objective is an econometric one.
We use a large and uniquely detailed data set recording the new car purchasing decisions of households in India.

By examining the observed patterns of car purchases we estimate the market share that a vehicle has commanded based on its fuel type, cost and interest rates available when financed by Banks and other financial institutions during 2010-2012.

The model allows us to extrapolate beyond our data, predicting how new car purchasing behaviour will change based on these attributes.

The market for new cars

The supply side of the new car market consists of a relatively small number of
Manufacturers each are producing a variety of vehicles.

Since the number of manufacturers is relatively small, it is unrealistic to regard this as a perfectly competitive market. Rather, each manufacturer is aware of the actions of the other manufacturers and tailors their product and pricing decisions accordingly. Such a market structure is commonly referred to as a non-collusive oligopoly.

On the demand side, there are two fundamentally different types of consumer participating in the new car market
(i) Firms or organisations purchasing vehicles for use by their employees; and
(ii) Individual households purchasing vehicles for their private use.

The present report deals with purchase decisions of private households exclusively. In order to understand the car-purchasing behavior of companies, one would require data on
Vehicle purchase decisions of individual firms, data that was not available for the current study. . Objectives
The Research is directed to understand the 1. Elasticity of private demand for vehicles: a. With regards to fixed costs of vehicle ownership. b. With regards to variable costs of vehicle ownership (e.g. costs determined by fuel efficiency and fuel prices).

2. Elasticity of private demand for vehicles: a. With regards to monthly car loan costs.

To understand and analyse the above given objectives we have chosen Maruti Suzuki India Private Limited as the company for our research and focus models are Wagon R Petrol, Wagon R CNG and Maruti Swift Petrol and Diesel models.

Methodology

Definition of ‘the market’
We defined the new car market as consisting of a set of households living in India from 2010-12.
In particular, our data allows us to identify the quantity of sales of different types of vehicle to private households from 2010-2012.

Data: Demand
The data was provided to us partially aggregated. In particular, we were provided with counts of the number of new registrations by private households of vehicles of the same type. • Make (Maruti)
• Model (Maruti Wagon R and Maruti Swift)
• Body type (Hatchback)
• Fuel type (Petrol, diesel, CNG)

Data: Vehicle costs
With regards to vehicle costs we identify two different types:
• Purchase /Fixed costs
• Variable costs

Purchase/Fixed Costs
We are aware that this price probably overstates the actual price paid by households since most dealers will offer a “discount” on list prices when making sales. Given the available data, there is little we can do to address this concern. So, we have assumed a discount of Rs 40,000 on petrol models and Rs 15000 on cng model while no discount on Diesel model.

Variable Costs
The variable costs of motoring depend primarily on three factors; (i) the number of miles driven, (ii) the fuel efficiency of the car and (iii) the cost of fuel.

Own-price elasticity
Own price elasticity helps us to estimate how demand for a vehicle type changes as a result of changes in selling prices. The usual way to describe the responsiveness of demand to changes in prices is through the estimation of price elasticities. Formally, own-price elasticity of demand measures the percentage change in the demand for a good when the price of that good changes by one percent (all other things being equal).

In our Project we have analysed the own price elasticity of demand for the car models mentioned above running on different fuel type for a short run period of 2010-12.

Demand Curve Shift

If the market price were held constant or near to constant price at P1, we would expect to see an increase in the quantity demanded—say from Q1 to Q2, as a result of lower interest rates on car loans available from 2010-2012. Because this increase would occur no matter what the market price, the result would be a shift to the right of the entire demand curve.

If the market price were held constant or near to constant price at P1, we would expect to see a decrease in the quantity demanded—say from Q1 to Q2, as a result of rising fuel prices from 2010-2012. Because this decrease would occur no matter what the market price, the result would be a shift to the left of the entire demand curve.

Analysis of Objectives

1. Elasticity of private demand for vehicles: a. With regards to fixed costs of vehicle ownership.

No. of Units Sold(Table 1) | Dec '10(Units) | Dec '11(Units) | Dec '12(Units) | Maruti Suzuki Swift(Diesel) | 5500 | 11000 | 12000 | Maruti Suzuki Swift(Petrol) | 6500 | 5000 | 4500 | | | | |

The number of units sold of Maruti Suzuki Swift, both diesel and petrol versions are shown in the graph above for the month of December 2010, 2011 and 2012.

Price of Maruti Swift (Petrol and Diesel) in lakhs in the Month of Dec for following years:

2010 2011 2012 | | | | | | | | | Maruti Suzuki Swift LDI 4.75L 5.20L 5.70L | Maruti Suzuki Swift LXI 4.05L 4.25L 4.5LVariance in Quantity Demanded of Maruti Swift Petrol vs Price for Dec ’10 – Dec’12 |

Table 2 Price(in Lacs) | Quantity Demanded | 4.05 | 6500 | 4.25 | 5000 | 4.5 | 4500 |

The graph above suggests that as the price of car has gone up over the years the quantity demanded for the car has come down.

A different view where axis have been interchanged for the same graph.

Price Elasticity of Demand:

The Table 2 shown above clearly shows that the price elasticity of demand of cars in short run is greater than 1 and is highly elastic wherein a unit % increase in the price has led to more than unit % decrease in the Quantity demanded.

Wagon R

No. of Units Sold | Dec '10 | Dec '11 | Dec '12 | Maruti Suzuki Wagon R (CNG) | 6000 | 7000 | 7500 | Maruti Suzuki Wagon R(Petrol) | 8000 | 5000 | 3500 |

The number of units sold of Maruti Suzuki Wagon R, both CNG and petrol versions are shown in the graph above for the month of December 2010, 2011 and 2012.

Price of Maruti Wagon R (Petrol and CNG) in lakhs in the Month of Dec for following years:

2010 2011 2012 | | | | | | | | | Wagon R Lxi 3.5L 3.61L 3.65LWagon R CNG 4.03L 4.10L 4.17L | Variance in Quantity Demanded of Maruti Wagon R Petrol v/s Price for Dec ’10 – Dec’12 |

Price(in lacs) | Quantity Demanded | 3.5 | 8000 | 3.61 | 5000 | 3.65 | 3500 |

The above graphs suggest that as the price of car has gone up over the years the quantity demanded for the car has come down.

Price Elasticity of Demand:
Conclusion:
Price elasticity of demand is highly elastic for petrol cars in the mid segment.

1. b) With regards to variable costs of vehicle ownership (e.g. costs determined by fuel efficiency and fuel prices).

Graphs of varying fuel prices(Petrol, CNG AND Diesel from 2010-2012)

Leftward Shift in Demand Curve for Maruti Suzuki Wagon R Petrol from 2010-2011 due to increase in petrol price

The above graph is a Price (Y-axis) v/s Quantity Demanded(X-axis) graph. It shows there has been a shift in demand for Petrol cars to the leftward side from Dec 2010 to Dec 2011 due to an increase in prices of petrol.
One assumption made here is that slight increase in price of petrol car is assumed to be constant.

Rightward Shift in Demand Curve for Maruti Suzuki Swift Diesel from 2010-2012

The above graph is a Price (Y-axis) v/s Quantity Demanded (X-axis) graph. It shows there has been a rightward shift in demand for diesel cars from Dec 2010 to Dec 2012 due to a significant increase in prices of petrol whereas the price of diesel has not increased so significantly.

2. Demand for vehicles: a. With regards to monthly car loan costs.

The average rate of Interest on car loans by the banks has gone up from 9% to 12.5% from 2010-2012. Thus, there has been a decline in the buying interest of the consumers and hence a leftward shift of the demand curve.

Leftward Shift in Demand Curve for Maruti Suzuki Wagon R (Petrol and CNG) combined from 2010-2012 due to increase in lending rates on car loans.

Conclusion & Assumptions * High interest costs, inflation and zooming petrol rates are affecting car demand. * Demand for mid-segment petrol cars is highly elastic. * Worst-hit are entry-level (Alto, Santro, Swift) to mid-segment (Dzire, Honda City) cars. * Car prices up by 10-12 % due to rising interest costs. * Shift towards diesel cars, but industry doesn’t have capacity. * Shift towards CNG cars.
For an industry that has got used to driving on automatic at healthy double-digit growth rates, it’s nothing short of cataclysmic. Car sales have crashed, worrying news from a sector seen as a bellwether for the Indian economy. After about 25 % growth over the past few years (and even during those nervy slowdown times in 2008 and 2009), alarm bells are clanging at the prospect of substantially lower growth.
While there are many explanations for the flagging consumer demand, rising interest rates tops the list. Considering 85 % of car purchases in India are financed, buyers have reacted negatively. “Interest rates are one of the highest in the last 7-8 years. This has affected customer affordability.
Rising petrol prices haven’t helped this downbeat mood either. The price of petrol has increased by almost 35 % from Rs 47.43 in February 2010 to Rs 63.70 in July 2011. With global prices of crude showing no mercy, petrol prices are unlikely to recede in the near future.
The prices of vehicles have gone up by 10-12 % because of an increase in raw material prices. This translates to an increase of Rs 1,500-2,000 in the EMI over a three-year period. This matters a lot for people looking at the ‘A’ and ‘B’ segment cars.
Another development that is affecting sales numbers is the marked shift towards diesel vehicles. Over the last year or so, a significant number of car buyers in India have shifted loyalties and are actively looking at the diesel option. The obvious reason: the growing disparity between petrol and diesel prices and the fact that diesel prices have not risen as rapidly as petrol. Assumptions 1. Analysis and findings focused on Short term.

2. Analysis of Objectives for Automobile Industry using two models of Maruti Suzuki.

3. The current research focuses solely on the demand side of the new car market. As a matter of fact the current analysis can be extended to investigate a number of supply side issues.

4. The current research does not take into account the Consumer Preference Choice. References 1. www.moneycontrol.com 2. www.driveinside.com 3. www.economictimes.com 4. www.hindustantimes.com 5. www.carwale.com 6. www.gaadibazaar.com 7. Wikipedia 8. Principles of Economics By Salvatore 9. www.marutisuzuki.com

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...Requested by: Jianan Sun -------------------------------------------Undergraduate Academic Record SCHOOLS ATTENDED Secondary Schools: Xi'an Gaoxin Tangnan High School Higher Education Institutions: Xi'an University of Finance & Econom 08/2009 - 05/2010 Issued to: HOURS 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 QPTS 45.00 84.00 QPTS 3.00 9.00 12.00 9.00 12.00 GPA 3.000 2.800 U N O F F I C I A L Test Scores: -------------------------------------------------------Transfer Credit Applied to 2011 Fall Semester Xi'an University of Finance & Econom 08/2009 - 05/2010 XICN001 FUNDAMENTALS OF COLLEGE C 3.00 NEEDEVAL XICN002 ADVANCED MATHS 1 (ECONOMI 3.00 MA 1--XICN003 INTRODUCTION TO LAW OF EC 3.00 ECO 4--XICN004 MORAL CULTIVATION AND BAS 3.00 GEED2--XICN005 PE (1) 1.00 KHP 1--XICN006 MICRO-ECONOMICS 3.00 ECO 201 XICN007 COLLEGE CHINESE 2.00 GEED1--XICN008 ADVANCED MATHS 2 (ECONOMI 3.00 MA 123 XICN009 MANAGEMENT 3.00 MGT 301 XICN010 MACRO-ECONOMICS 2.00 ECO 202 XICN011 PRINCIPLE OF MARXISM 3.00 GEED2--XICN012 DATABASE APPLICATION 2.00 NEEDEVAL XICN013 PE (2) 1.00 KHP 1--XICN014 OUTLINE OF CHINESE MODERN 2.00 GEED2--Total 34.00 2011 Fall Semester Program: College of Business and Economics Bachelor of Science in Accounting Major: Pre-Accounting CRS NUM COURSE TITLE GRADE STA 210 INTRO TO STATISTICAL A REASONING CIS 110 COMP AND COM I B GLY 110 ENDANGERED PLANET INTR TO C ENVRNMNTL GEOL BIO 102 HUMAN ECOLOGY B ACC 201 FINANCIAL...

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