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Empirical Results

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Submitted By kaustavanalyst
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CHAPTER 5. EMPIRICAL RESULTS, FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS

1. Over all graphical analysis

For any index the best way to gauge its long term movement is to plot its movement over a period of time. So here to start with the analysis part , first the overall movement of the daily “close” data for S&P CNX NIFTY FIFTY is examined for the period starting from 2nd May 2002 till 3rd Feb 2012. There are in total 2347 observations and the econometric package EViews 7 has been used to track the movement. The plot is shown in Fig No 5.1.

[pic]

Fig No 5.1. Daily movement of Nifty Fifty “close” during 02/05/2002 – 03/02/2012

From the graph it is clear that Nifty has shown an upward trend over the period of time. While the upward trend is pretty evident from 2002 to 2007 however since 2007 Nifty movement has been somewhat unstable due to frequent market fluctuation and thus the market seems to be more volatile during this period. In terms of volatility another aspect is visible from the graph that is an upward trend is being followed by further upward trend while a downward trend is being followed by further downward trend and this feature is known as “volatility clustering” and this volatility clustering seems to be present in the index. More about the volatility and the movement of the index will be explored in the further subsections where the task of comparing Nifty movement at times is being taken.

2. Over all statistics

The performance of Nifty over the years is tabulated in the Table No5.1. The statistics is collected from the NSE website. The link to the website is

http://www.nseindia.com/content/indices/ind_cnx_nifty.pdf

|Period |Returns (%) |Volatility (%) |Avg Daily Return (%) |
|1 year |-9.23 |1.29

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