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The Potential Twilight of the European Union
Charles A. Kupchan
INTRODUCTION
The European Union’s (EU) trillion-dollar loan package succeeded in quelling the financial maelstrom spawned by Greek debt. Nonetheless, the financial crisis has taken a painful toll on many EU members, and high national debts and the uncertain health of the continent’s banks may mean more trouble ahead.
Although these economic woes have of late captured the headlines, they pale in comparison with a more serious malady: Europe’s historic experiment in political union is faltering. As the poisonous politics that delayed the EU’s rescue of the eurozone revealed, Europe is experiencing a renationalization of political life. The project of European integration, which has steadily advanced since the bitter years after World War II, has been thrown into reverse as its members claw back from the union the traditional powers of national sovereignty. And the causes run much deeper than the ongoing financial crisis, suggesting they are here to stay. Generational change, a backlash against globalization, and the absence of a compelling vision of Europe’s place in the world may well mean that the
European Union is running out of steam.
The EU’s uncertain future has enormous stakes for Americans as well as Europeans. Europe remains the United States’ go-to partner on every front—from stewardship of the global economy to curbing global warming to bringing stability to Afghanistan. With U.S. debt soaring and Americans tiring of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Washington could certainly use a collective EU capable of shouldering greater global burdens. Instead, the renationalization of the EU threatens to consign its twenty-seven individual member states to geopolitical irrelevance. The recent backsliding, if it continues, has the potential to compromise one of the most significant

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