...Introduction Foreign exchange is essentially about exchanging one currency for another. The foreign exchange market is global, and it is conducted through the internet, over-the-counter (OTC) through the use of electronic trading platforms, or by telephone through trading desks. Some shorten the term to “forex” or “FX”. The OTC market is also known as the “spot”, “cash”, or “off-exchange” forex market. (A spot transaction refers to an exchange of currencies at the prevailing market rate.). The spot/cash/OTC/off-exchange forex market is not a market in the traditional sense, because there is no central trading location, or exchange. Rather, it is an interconnected and electronic network of bank traders, dealers, brokers and fund managers for electronic transfers of money from one account into another account. The interbank market is one in which huge banks, insurance companies, corporations and other financial institutions manage the risks associated with fluctuations in currency rates by trading in large quantities. The secondary market, that is, the OTC market has developed more recently permitting retail (Smaller)investors to participate in forex markets. The OTC market has many of the same characteristics of the interbank market but it doesn’t provide the same prices, as the size of trades, and the volumes, are much smaller. Trading forex is buying one currency while at the same time selling a different currency. Some companies who do business in other countries...
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...Wal-Mart’s non-Chinese owned suppliers operating in China number nearly 5,000 and all of them benefit from a low valued yuan compared to the dollar. The 176 million worldwide customers of Wal-Mart also benefit from the low valued yuan. With nearly 70% of Wal-Mart’s products coming from China a sharp increase in the value of the yuan against the dollar can be devastating for the company as the increased costs for Wal-Mart and would most likely passed on to customers. It could also hurt American customers whom Wal-Mart claims it saves the average household roughly $2,500 dollars every year. (Peng, 2011) If you were the CEO of Wal-Mart and were preparing for a meeting with the most vocal members of the US Congress on China’s currency “manipulation”, what would you say to them? I would point out that while it may be politically easy to blame China especially when it comes to an uniformed electorate, the rise in costs associated with policies aimed at encouraging China to lets its yuan to appreciate against the dollar will do harm in other ways. Average Americans (also known as voters) will feel an appreciated yuan in their wallets. China may be an easy target, but the higher costs American consumers pay due to policies pursued by members of congress is another hot topic that potential voters will respond to. Finally increased costs means Wal-Mart will have to take actions to keep profits up to keep shareholders happy. This may mean cutting workforce which in this current economic...
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...3.0 STRUCTURE OF THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET 3.1 Overview of the Local Foreign Exchange Market In 1993 Trinidad and Tobago shifted from a fixed exchange rate regime to that which is referred to as Managed Floating Rate, whereby the par value of the Domestic Currency in terms of the Foreign Currency is based on the prevailing market rates. An emphasis is placed on defending the stability of TT/US Rate in order to promote exports and consumption. The dollar appreciates or depreciates in response to changes in demand and supply conditions in the foreign exchange market and intervention policy by the Central Bank seeks to manage these fluctuations by effecting a systematic approach to achieving a rate that is aligned to our country’s future economic goals. This System encompasses a Two Tier System as follows: • Tier 1: US Supply from Three Large Energy Companies Namely Petrotrin, NGC and PCS Nitrogen Allocated to commercial banks based on market share. • Tier 2: US Dollars from other energy companies and exporters would be allocated among commercial banks according to Market Share. • An Intervention System: In order to maintain stability and confidence and to prevent high exchange rate volatility in the market, the CBTT intervenes to meet the shortfall of Demand and Supply. Intervention system for Foreign Exchange is distributed to authorized dealers (see appendix 1) in the following ways: 1) Non-competitive Sale based on Market Share 2) Auction Sale with a price Cap In...
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...International Business & Economics Research Journal Volume 3, Number 3 Effects of Exchange Rates On International Transfer Pricing Decisions Canri Chan (E-mail: canri.chan@miis.edu), Monterey Institute of International Studies Steven P. Landry (E-mail: steve.landry@miis.edu), Monterey Institute of International Studies Terrance Jalbert (E-mail: jalbert@hawaii.edu), University of Hawaii at Hilo Abstract Events leading to the passing of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act have led to increased concern with and scrutiny of potential management manipulation of financial statements. From an agency theory perspective, managers have incentives to manipulate organizational methods and choices in order to produce financial statements that those managers believe will maximize their incentive compensation. Transfer pricing represents one possible choice that managers can manipulate. This paper investigates whether exchange rates affect transfer pricing particularly as it relates to maximizing overall corporate profitability. The effects of taxes and government regulations have been explored in considerable depth in the transfer pricing literature. However, while transfer prices should also be affected by exchange rates in predictable ways, this variable has received comparably little attention in the literature. Inclusion of exchange rates in an analysis of transfer pricing and corporate profitability presents an opportunity to add to the literature. We conducted an experiment to examine how...
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...1. Comment on three unethical practices that china has been accused, do you think that these practices were necessary for china’s economic survival? China has been accused of various unethical practices in a host of industries. Overall, Chinese business ethics are built on the basis of "guanxi," a fundamental principle and practice underlying the whole of the Chinese social fabric. Guanxi places relationships and the moral obligations flowing from those relationships above other considerations, including written law. It not only is accepted in China, it is regarded as a moral obligation that people who have known each other for an extended period of time and have collaborated and helped each other are obligated to continue this relationship. Guanxi defines both how business is done in China at all levels and how the Chinese view ethics. Corruption and Bribery – In Transparency International’s (TI) Corruption Perception Index 2011, China is ranked 75th out of 185 countries. This has been a consistent score since 2008. The TI Global Corruption Barometer 2010/2011 found that 46% of the 1,000 Chinese respondents felt that the level of corruption in the Country had increased and just over a third considered the Government’s actions ineffective in combating corruption. When respondents were asked “To what extent do you perceive the following institutions in this country to be affected by corruption?”, business was seen as the most corrupt institution, closely followed by political...
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...Exchange rate volatility and its impact: Case of India and China Exchange Rate Exchange rate between two currencies is the rate at which one currency will be exchanged for another. How to calculate exchange rate Each country manages the value of its currency through varying mechanisms. The currency can either be free-floating or fixed. 1. Movable or Adjusted Peg System A system of fixed exchange rates, but with a provision for the revaluation (usually devaluation) of a currency. E.g. Between 1994 and 2005, the Chinese Yuan renminbi (RMB) was pegged to the United States dollar at RMB 8.2768 to $1. 2. Free Floating System In this system the exchange rate is allowed to vary against that of other currencies. It is...
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...The Bretton Woods Agreement After World War I most countries wanted to return to the old financial security and stable situation of pre-war times as soon as possible. Discussions about a return to the gold standard began and by 1926 and all leading economies had re-established the system, according to which every nation’s circulating money had to be backed by reserves of gold and foreign currencies to a certain extent. But several mistakes in implementing the gold standard (mainly that a weakened Great Britain had to take the leading part and that a number of main currencies where over- or undervalued) led to a collapse of the economic and financial relations, peaking in the Great Depression in 1929. Every single country tried to increase the competitiveness of its export products in order to reduce its payment balance deficit by deflating its currency. This strategy only led to success as long as a country was deflating faster and more strongly than all other nations. This fact resulted in an international deflation competition that caused mass unemployment, bankruptcy of enterprises, the failing of credit institutions, as well as hyper inflations in the countries concerned. In the 1930s several conferences dealing with the world monetary problems caused by the Great Depression had ended in failure. But after World War II the need for a stabilizing system that avoided the mistakes, which had been made earlier, became evident. Plans were made for an innovative...
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...causes of the sustained rise, the impact that the exchange rate plays on the Australian economy and the implications for monetary and fiscal policies, particularly policies that will reduce the overall exchange rate. Background There are two distinct trends, which can be discerned from the nominal exchange rate of the AUD against the United States Dollar (USD) over the last 36 months. The AUD has achieved record ‘post float’ highs and sustained strength against the USD for much of this period (Garton, Gaudry, & Wilcox 2012). The trend of appreciation is most notable in Figure 1.1 between August 2011 and April 2013 where the AUD was consistently above parity with the USD. However, in the final 12 months of this period the AUD has fallen below parity and has continued to depreciate until the present day (RBA, 2014). Thus, it can be said that the AUD has experienced two separate trends in recent times, a record period of appreciation followed by a gradual and continuing depreciation. Figure 1.1: The AUD vs. USD nominal exchange rate over the last 36 months. Available from Reserve Bank of Australia, 2014. Appreciation of the AUD There are three main causes of the appreciation of the AUD, which resulted in record highs achieved between 2011 and 2013. Terms of Trade Boom The mining boom, which has substantially increased Australia’s terms of trade, has been a major cause of the appreciating exchange rate over the last 36 months. An economies...
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...exchange rate determination “Having endeavored to forecast exchange rates for more than half a century, I have understandably developed significant humility about my ability in this area…”[1] - Alan Greenspan Figure 1: Exchange Rate Determination [pic] Source: Exchange Rate Determination I. Short-Run Forecasting Tools Short-term changes in exchange rates are the most difficult to predict and are often determined based on bandwagon effects, overreaction to news, speculation, and technical analysis.[2] Trend-Following Behavior is the tendency for the market to follow a trend. In other words an increase in the exchange rate is more likely to be followed by another increase. Investor Sentiment is based on the consensus of the market. For example if the market is bullish on the dollar, then the dollar is likely to strengthen versus other currencies. The FX market is quite different from the world equity markets in one important aspect: transparency. In equity markets, rules ensure that volume and price data are readily available to all parties… this is NOT the case in FX markets. In fact large FX dealers are able to observe factors such as: shifts in risk appetite, liquidity needs, hedging demands, and institutional rebalancing.[3] Order Flow - there is evidence of a positive correlation between spot exchange rate movements and order flows in the inter-dealer market[4] and with movements in customer order flows.[5] Three explanations for the cause...
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...real exchange rates of Chinese renminbi (RMB) against US dollar (USD) between from January 2005 to December 2013. It shows that the nominal exchange rate of RMB/USD is higher than the real exchange rate throughout the period of observation indicating that the RMB is undervalued. This clarifies that the USD is buying more RMB in nominal terms than it should be in real terms. The increase in nominal exchange rate of RMB/USD is termed as a nominal depreciation of the currency after de-pegging whereas the real exchange rate of RMB/USD continues depreciating in the years of observation as shown in Appendix 2. It also shows that the RMB was depreciating against USD in every quarter after de-pegging. Table 1 compiles the average quarterly percentage of over-or-undervaluation of the RMB against USD, euro (EUR) and the Japanese yen (JPY) from January 2005 till December 2013. Before the de-pegging, the RMB was found to be overvalued by of 1.19% against the USD in January 2005 then it was discovered to be undervalued since March 2005 by 0.58%. The RMB continues being undervalued against the USD and reached its highest percentage at 28.49% in March 2013. By December 2013, the RMB was still undervalued by 28.35% against USD. Overall, the RMB was overvalued against the USD by 16.94% in the period of observation. Figure 2 Figure 2 demonstrates movement of the nominal and real exchange rates of RMB against EUR from January 2005 until December 2013. The nominal and real exchange rate of RMB/EUR...
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...the World Bank and the IMF. The objectives of a Structural Adjustment Program are largely the same for most African nations, because the world bodies presume that African economies are at the same level of development and are experiencing similar problems. The stated objectives of the Nigerian SAP are to: • restructure and diversify the productive base of the economy • achieve fiscal stability and positive balance of payments • set the basis for a sustained non-inflationary or minimal inflationary growth, and • reduce the dominance of unproductive investments in the public sector.1 The corresponding program instruments include the strengthening of demand management policies, adoption of a realistic exchange rate policy through the establishment of Foreign Exchange Markets (FEM), rationalization and privatization of public sector enterprises, and the adoption of appropriate pricing policies for public enterprises. Nigeria has implemented SAP for almost a decade now, but none of the objectives has been achieved,...
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...in making business decisions. Macroeconomics is the study of the economy as a whole. It is the study of the aggregate demand and aggregate supply which reflect the demand and supply of everybody in the whole country. It examines the activities and trends in economy’s wide phenomena, such as unemployment, inflation, economic growth, money supply, budget deficits, and exchange rates. The knowledge from this study will indicate the ‘health’ condition of economy in the country. As a business owner, the study of the macroeconomics is very important to make everyday business decisions as they have to focus beyond what is happening in the firm and look into aggregate demand and aggregate supply in economy. Managers always need information or knowledge to make decisions. Example is demand theory. If people get low income, they tend to spend less than when they are getting higher income. As the managers are forecasting the demand for their products and services, anticipation of how consumers’ incomes will grow should be learned. To make decisions, business owner should also know about the current interest rates for loans if they are about to borrow money from the financial institution. They should also be aware about where they stand in the business cycle. Cost of labour is another important reason to study of macroeconomic in order to make better decision. For example, during tight labour supply, the price or salary of the labour will shooting up and this will eventually increase...
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...Example: NetOne Inc. expects free cash flows of $5 million each year. NetOne's corporate tax rate is 35%, and its unlevered cost of capital is 15%. The firm also has outstanding debt of $19.05 million, and it expects to maintain this level of debt permanently. What is value of NetOne without leverage? VU = PV(of FCF)= $5mil/0.15 = $33.333 million What is the value of NetOne's equity with leverage? E = VL - D = VU + PV(ITS) - D = VU + TC D - D = VU + D(TC - 1)= $33.333 + $19.05(0.35 - 1) = $20.951 million. Example: A firm has $50 million in equity and $20 million of debt, it pays a dividend of $3 million, and has a net income of $10 million. ROA = Net Income / Beginning Assets ROE= Net Income / Beginning Equity Old Retention Rate = (1-payout policy) New Retention Rate= (1-New Payout Percent) What is the firm's sustainable growth rate? SGR=10/50 (1 - 3/10) = 14% What is the firm's internal growth rate? IGR =10/70 (1 - 3/10) = 10% Example: Sales: 122,800 Cost of Goods Sold: 104,380 Accounts Receivable: 10,900 Inventory: 1,420 Accounts Payable: 22,640 Cromwell Incorporated has the information shown above on its annual Income Statement and Balance Sheet (all numbers shown are in thousands). What is Cromwell's cash conversion cycle? Inventory Days = Inventory/Ave. Daily COGS = 1,420/104,380/365 = 4.97 A/R Days = A/R / Ave. Daily Sales = 10,900/122,800/365 = 32.4 A/P Days = A/P / Ave. Daily COGS = 22,640/104,380/365 = 79.17 CCC = Inventory Days + A/R Days - A/P Days = 4.97 + 32.4 -79...
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...following terms: international monetary system, exchange rate, spot exchange rate, forward exchange rate, fixed exchange rate, floating exchange rate, devaluation/revaluation of a currency, depreciation/appreciation of a currency, soft currency, and hard currency. ◆ Identify the different types of exchange rate systems. ◆ Distinguish between direct and indirect quotations, and American and European term quotations, and calculate cross rates between any two currencies. ◆ Differentiate between spot and forward rates, and explain what it means for a forward currency to sell at a discount or premium. ◆ Briefly explain the concept of interest rate parity and write the corresponding equation. ◆ Briefly explain the concept of purchasing power parity and write the corresponding equation. ◆ Explain the implications of relative inflation rates, or rates of inflation in foreign countries compared with that in the home country, on interest rates, exchange rates, and on multinational financial decisions. ◆ Distinguish between foreign portfolio investments and direct investments, and briefly explain the following terms: Eurocredits, Eurodollar, Eurobonds, and foreign bonds. ◆ Explain why new issues of stock are sold in international markets. ◆ Identify some key differences in capital budgeting as applied to foreign versus domestic operations including the following terms: repatriation of earnings, exchange rate...
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...January 20, 2013 Fortnightly Market Wrap -Up This week’s content: Macro Strategy – page 3 World Markets – page 9 Cautious optimism for 2013 By Swasti Gupta, Analyst, BSc Economics Eurozone – page 5 Currency wars: Is it me or is it getting hot in here? By Eliott Anderson, Co-Editor, BSc Management China – page 13 The EU: In or Out? By Christopher Viggor, Analyst, MSc Economics Eurozone – page 7 Take-off instead of hard landing? By Wodzik Kicinski, Analyst, BSc Economics Japan – page 15 Italy – is politics enough? By Andrei Damaschin, Co-Editor, BSc Accounting and Finance Challenges facing Japan By Melson Chun, Analyst, Law Warwick Investment Club Research Team 2 January 20, 2013 Fortnightly Market Wrap -Up Macro Strategy Cautious Optimism for 2013 By Swasti Gupta, Analyst, 2nd-year BSc Economics The S&P 500 closed on a 5-year high at 1,485.98 on Friday, after increasing for a third consecutive week since the New Year. The rally comes in response to strong fourth quarter earnings results, announced by banks and industrials earlier this week. Meanwhile Wall’s Street’s fear gauge, as measured by the VIX volatility index 1, closed the week at its lowest level since 2007 amidst speculation of a “great rotation”2. The CBOE VIX index is a measure of volatility perceived by investors. A forward looking measure, it is based on the pricing of options which investors use to protect their portfolios against losses in the S&P 500...
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