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Exchange Rate Risk

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Factors that Contribute to Exchange Rate Risk

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Factors that Contribute to Exchange Rate Risk

There is a factor of exchange rate risk that needs to be considered if Kudler Fine Foods chooses to expand internationally. Exchange rate risk is the risk associated with fluctuations in the prices of foreign monies. There are six factors that contribute to exchange rate risk, inflation, interest rates, current account deficits, public debt, terms of trade, and political stability and economic performance. All of these factors need to be considered when deciding to expand into another country. Things like political stability and the economic performance of a country can make a difference in exchange rates and the ability to obtain forward contracts. Without the ability to obtain forward contracts, there is a risk of losing money to an extreme change in the country’s currency. Other factors that need to be considered when looking at a country is its inflation rate, is it extremely high or low. A lower inflation rate means that the country’s currency has an increasing value. Interest rates are another important point to look at as there is a correlation between inflation and exchange rate. Interest rates can be manipulated and higher interest rates offer lenders higher returns attracting foreign investment. The current-account or balance of trade between countries can be in excess demand or a deficit. More money is spent on foreign trade when there is a deficit than what is earned. Another question is how much public debt the country has, if the debt is high then there is less attraction to foreign investors for fear of default. Last are the terms of trade. Increased terms of trade means, more demand for those countries exports meaning an increase in their currency demand. If there is a higher demand for imports, than the value of that country’s currency will decrease when compared to other traders. Overall, Kudler needs to be very versed in any country they may choose to expand in as they have no experience with having a business in another country.

References
6 Factors that Influence Exchange Rates. (2014). Retrieved from http://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/04/050704.asp

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