...Simulation Lecture Notes and the Gentle Lentil Case General Overview of the Case • What is the decision problem presented in the case? • What are the issues Sanjay must consider in deciding among the alternative choices? 1 Accounting Model of Gentle Lentil’s Monthly Earnings What are the monthly fixed costs? L = labor costs (between $5,040 and $6,860) U = rent, utilities, other unavoidable costs = $3,995 What are the monthly variable costs? F = food costs M = number of meals served in month F = $11 x M What are the monthly total costs? L + U + F = L + 3,995 + 11 x M 2 Gentle Lentil’s Monthly Earnings,cont. What are the monthly revenues? R = monthly revenues P = price of meal R = PxM What are the monthly earnings? X = monthly earnings = revenues – costs = P x M – ( L + 3,995 + 11 x M ) = (P – 11 ) x M – L – 3,995 Which of these quantities are random variables? P M L X = = = = price of prix fixe meal number of meals sold labor cost monthly earnings 3 (X is a function of random variables, so it is a random variable) Assumptions Regarding the Behavior of the Random Variables M P = number of meals sold per month We assume that M obeys a Normal distribution with µ = 3,000 and σ = 1,000 = price of the prix fixe meal We assume that P obeys the following discrete probability distribution Scenario Very healthy market Healthy market Not so healthy market Unhealthy market Price of Prix Fixe Meal $20.00 $18.50 $16.50 $15.00 Probability...
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