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Fiscal Policy

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Fiscal Policy and ExxonMobil

Introduction
Government spending has been an instrumental component and reflection for the United States economy. As an integral part of the business cycle, the last several years have been through the trough since the recession in 2008. While government spending has been increasing, for a couple years it did reduce in addition to maintaining a steady quantity of spending up until the past few years of recovering and growth. As a result, there has been a steady increase of spending in the past three, with anticipation of greater spending in the years ahead. While the overall amount of spending has been increasing as a result of a stronger economy, there has been a surplus of oil and petroleum drilling. Given the lower demand for drilling, the oil and petroleum industry has been greatly affected with Exxon Mobil reporting lower profits, and BP has been reporting a loss, with anticipation of mass layoffs ahead. (Krauss, 2016)
Fiscal Policy, Tax Rates, and the Economy
Roughly 35-36% of our total government spending accounts for the gross domestic product (GDP). After the government bailout funding for banking and stimulating the economy with an additional $700B after 2008, over 42% of the annual GDP was of government spending. Federal income tax hovering between 16.8-17.2% for median class income has been consistent for the past several years.
“Today's government spending levels are indeed too high, at least relative to the average level of tax revenue the government has generated over the past 60 years. Unless Americans are willing to radically increase the amount of taxes they pay relative to GDP, government spending must be cut.” (Blodget, 2011)
While the fiscal policy since 2014 has demonstrated a marginal increase of spending, forecasters and analysts are expecting a plateau of 38% as the overall economy has been strengthening and growing. In retrospect, the economy today has benefited from the bailout a few years ago to help jumpstart the growth in the last few years. With the growth of the economy, the marginal increased spending will be less than the current and anticipated GDP values. (J. Clemens, S. Miran, 2012) Without substantial changes in the tax rates in addition to the reducing GDP consumption as a part of the fiscal policy. ‘In September 2012, a Congressional Research Service study claimed that there is no evidence that changes in top marginal tax rates have had any impact on economic growth in the United States since World War II. In the weeks leading up to the election, the CRS study was spun as evidence that President Obama's proposal to raise the top marginal tax rate to 39.6 percent could "spread the wealth around" without forgoing economic growth.” (Taylor, 2014)
Impact of Fiscal Policies
For ExxonMobil the stability and integrity of any governments fiscal policies play a major role in the companies prices, growth, and success. The oil and natural resources industry play a huge part in our nation’s economic performance. When the companies like Exxonmobil have to cut back on the supply of gas then they too have to make changes and that can affect jobs in the countries that ExxonMobil are in.If ExxonMobil continues to take a loss because of the low cost of oil compared to where it was a couple of years ago, investors will start to rethink how and where they want to invest their money at. Supply and Demand can often time dictate when the governments intervene with fiscal policies. When the demand for oil or gas is low it can severely affect the price at which oil or gas can be sold at. If there is a surplus of oil supply on the shelves for companies then the cost of oil per barrel will begin to drop as a bidding war can be the result. The infrastructure of the oil industry in the United States is looking for the government to find a way to help fund its cost. With the drop in oil prices over the past few years, it has affected the big companies like ExxonMobil , because low oil cost means low gas cost. Some economist say that is can have an adverse effect on the gas companies as well. When gas prices are low, spending trends change. Consumers start to purchase big gas guzzling vehicles like suvs and trucks. Then the demand for gas will start to climb allowing companies like ExxonMobil to benefit because the cycle of supply and demand can balance back out.

Macroeconomics Affects
Not only can fiscal policy affect the oil and gas industry but there are other events that can cause significant areas of concern for companies like ExxonMobil as well. Technology and how well it improves each year can greatly affect the outcome for the oil and gas industry. Let’s take the automobile industry for example. With the improvement in gas consumption in new cars today, it has slowed the consumption therefore the demand for gas worldwide. Also the weather can play an intricate part in the day to day operations for major oil and gas companies. If production is slowed down for any reason that can raise concern for the effects on the price. Unfortunately acts of terrorism and or violence by protestors can have economic effects on a company like ExxonMobile. Acts such as these can cause the cost for security to rise that can have a negative effect on the companies or cause the cease operations in those facilities if the violence or civil unrest continue to occur.
Two Year Outlook
In the next two year the health of the United States economy looks very solid and we should be experiencing an average growth rate of the real GDP of 3.8 percent for 2016. Consumer spending is looking likely to grow in pace with the rest of the economy as wages still rise. As far as housing starts, this is also looking to be growing very rapidly, which is predicted to be a 10 percent growth in residential housing starts. Business capital spending will continue to grow thanks to manufacturing has increased over 5 percent in the last year. Government spending on transfer payments will continue to grow, but federal discretionary spending will be limited due to budget constraints. Defense spending will probably be protected while State and local governments will be able to expand their spending by the three-to-five percent revenue gains. With the lower cost of oil, inflation will subside and remain flat since the price of gas had been lowered. Even with the lower prices of oil and gas, Exxon Mobil is still looking to have a positive outlook.

Expected Economy
Since oil prices have been low for a while Exxon Mobil is still poised to have a very positive growth outlook. Exxon Mobil and many companies like it have been known to take on huge over budgeted project, but now that shares of the company have fallen and prices have fallen, much of that has been scaled back which Exxon Mobil used that to its advantage. They have cut capital and operations expenses by $8 million dollars and reduced its capital spending by $4.5 million. Even with the reduced spending, Exxon Mobil is still expected to have a rise in production. This may all sound good but my recommendation based on the expected economy is that Exxon Mobil should sustain it production and budget cuts, since gas and oil prices are still expected to be at it levels that they are now. Another one is that when prices do raise, not to just to revert back to what when the price of gas was much higher but to reinvest into how to cuts production and operation cost even lower without sacrificing jobs.
“It's probably a bit of a stretch to say that 2016 will be a great year for ExxonMobil. It just seems that it will take a little while longer for the oil and gas supply glut to clear and raise energy prices than for ExxonMobil to have a fantastic 2016. However, the cost savings the company has been able to implement this year will likely be able to impact earnings for a few years now, and when oil prices do recover it could lead to some very impressive results.(Fool.com, 2015)”.

References
Anderson, J. (2013). US Tax Acts and their Effects on Average Tax Rates. Department of Economics, University of Nebraska. Retrieved from: http://web.a.ebscohost.com.contentproxy.phoenix.edu/ehost/pdfviewer/pdfviewer?sid=0aca7aa6-4322-4625-ac6d-75fe2db8a060%40sessionmgr4005&vid=1&hid=4212
Taylor, J. (Winter 2014). Marginal Tax Rates and U.S. Growth: Flaws in the 2012 CRS Study. ProQuest. Retrieved from: http://search.proquest.com.contentproxy.phoenix.edu/docview/1503666790?pq-origsite=summon&accountid=458
Blodget, H. (July 12th, 2011). The Truth about Taxes: Here’s How High Today’s Rates Really Are. BusinessInsider. Retrieved from: http://www.businessinsider.com/history-of-tax-rates
US Government Spending (2016). US Government Spending. Retrieved from: http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/recent_spending
Krauss, C. Reed, S. (February 2nd, 2016). Exxon Mobil’s Profits Fall and BP Cites Low Oil Prices in $3.3 Billion Loss. The New York Times. Retrieved from: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/03/business/energy-environment/oil-company-earnings.html?_r=0
Miller, J., Ni, S. (November, 2011). Long Term Oil Priced Forecasts: A New Perspective On Oil And The Macroeconomy. Macroeconomic Dynamics, suppl. Oil Price Shocks. ProQuest. Retrieved from: http://search.proquest.com.contentproxy.phoenix.edu/docview/915648544?pq-origsite=summon&accountid=35812
Trending Economics (2016). United States GDP Growth Rate. Trending Economics.
Retrieved from: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth
Lemieux, P. (March 22nd, 2015). Cheaper Oil Will Not Hurt The Economy. Energy & Natural Resources. Regulations. Retrieved from: http://web.b.ebscohost.com.contentproxy.phoenix.edu/ehost/pdfviewer/pdfviewer?sid=6cab2e7d-58dd-4d9c-b71b-c143f247efe4%40sessionmgr113&vid=1&hid=128
Gonzales-Aguado, C., Saurez, J. (March 1st, 2015). Interest Rates and Credit Risk. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking. Retrieved from: http://web.a.ebscohost.com.contentproxy.phoenix.edu/ehost/pdfviewer/pdfviewer?sid=9886f64a-0f84-4899-ac5d-b1c80e1b5b69%40sessionmgr4003&vid=1&hid=4109
Crowe, T. (2015, December 23). Will 2016 Be ExxonMobil Corporation's Best Year Yet? -- The Motley Fool. Retrieved March 13, 2016, from http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/12/23/will-2016-be-exxonmobil-corporations-best-year-yet.aspx
Conerly, B. (2016, January 06). Retrieved March 14, 2016, from http://www.forbes.com/sites/billconerly/2015/01/06/economic-forecast-2015-2017/2/#147da16f770f

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