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Geg Airport

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Submitted By hailin
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The Size and Growth of GEG Airport

ABSTRACT

This paper is going to explain the size and growth of Spokane international airport (GEG) by developing an empirical model. I will use the data from 1993 to 2009 on the airport, which includes passengers, local measures of income and population, and CPI to explain the development of GEG. This paper will include 7 parts: introduction and background, conceptual model, empirical model, data section, empirical results, summary and conclusion, and references.

Keywords: Airport size, growth, and patterns.

JEL Codes: L93
Introduction and Background In the following paper, I will specifically study Spokane International Airport using the knowledge that I have learn from Economics 320 and 421 classes to develop conceptual and empirical models that explain its size and growth. To do this, I will focus on the factors that could influence the income of the airport, which may contain the number of passengers, employers and airplanes, local population and cpi, weather and the relationships among them. For society, the result of this paper could make a clearer idea for people about airport industry; for the owners of airports, this paper may influence the management and marketing of airports and help them to earn more income; for my own, this paper can help me better understand what I have learn in this class and how to use the knowledge to work in future position.
Spokane International Airport, which airport code is GEG, is located at about 6 miles west of downtown Spokane, Washington and only 26 miles from Coeur d'Alene, Idaho, thus the airport primarily serves Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho. It is a 4,800 acre commercial service airport served by six airlines and two air cargo carriers. The airport processed 3.1 million passengers and 54,118 air cargo tons in 2011. It has a main terminal with Concourses A and B on the west side and Concourse C on the east.
Known as Sunset Field before 1941, it was purchased from the county by the War Department and renamed Geiger Field after Major Harold Geiger. During World War II, Geiger Field was a major training base by Second Air Force as a group training airfield for B-17 Flying Fortress heavy bombardment units, with new aircraft being obtained from Boeing near Seattle. It was also used by Air Technical Service Command as aircraft maintenance and supply depot; Deer Park Airport and Felts Field were auxiliaries.
Geiger was closed in late 1945 and turned over to War Assets Administration, then transferred to Spokane County and developed into a commercial airport. Built in 1942 as the Spokane Air Depot, Fairchild Air Force Base is four miles to the west. It became Spokane's municipal airport in 1946, replacing Felts Field, and received its present name in 1960. The current chair is David Holmes.
The airport has a Master Plan, of course; it includes a third runway and gates added to Concourse C. A new control tower has been built south of the airport, replacing the one near Concourse C. The new control tower is the tallest one in the State. The Terminal, Rotunda, and Concourse C Enhancement Project, was recently completed, designed by Bernardo/Wills Architects, P.C. The project, which concluded in November 2006, added retail space and expanded security checkpoints in the airport's three concourses, and gave the Rotunda an aesthetic renovation. In 2010, 2000 feet was added to Runway 3–21, and parallel taxiways 'A' and 'G' enabling heavier aircraft departures in summer months.
The airport plans to add another concourse in the next 5–10 years and looks to add more direct flights to the east coast; the Spokane market has been hosting big events and attracting business to the area.

Conceptual Model Based on the data given, we can observe the number of passengers per quarter over time in the Spokane international airport (GEG). From the Figure 1 below, we can see that the number of passengers was increasing, in general, for the first 35 quarters and then decreased. After its lowest point in 40, the number started to increase again. In other words, there is a major breakdown between 35 and 55. However, it had slightly decreased after trend 55. Specifically, the number of passengers kept increasing before September 2001 and decreased after 911 attack. This means that the attack caused the demand being decreased and thus decreased the number of passengers.
Due to the Master Plan introduced in the background, the airport has increased its supply and thus hope to increase the number of passengers. Besides, the airport plans to add another concourse in the next 5–10 years and looks to add more direct flights to the east coast. Therefore, it is possible that the number of passengers will increase in the future.
The number of passengers in GEG is also under effect of different quarters. Passengers was increasing in the first three quarters and decreased slightly in the fourth quarter within every year, except 2001, 2004 and 2007. In 2004, passengers was increasing during the year; in 2001 and 2007, the number of passengers for the third quarter is less than second quarter and kept decreasing in the fourth quarter. Moreover, between the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of next year, the number of passengers always decreased, except for the end of 1993 and beginning of 1994. This means that in general, from spring to fall of a year, more and more people travel by airlines in GEG; and in winter, the demand is a little bit lower but still bigger than spring of this year and next year.

Empirical Model
Based on the discussion in last section-conceptual model, I define the key factors that influence the size and growth of Spokane international airport (GEG) as trend, Income, CPI, 911 attack, airport’s expansion and quarters. These factors are exogenous and independent variables that affect the endogenous variable, which is the number of passengers of GEG airport. I use them to estimate my empirical model as follow:
Y= β1 + β2 * trend + β3 * (Income_20) + β4 * (Pop_20) +β5 * (CPI) + β6 * Dum911 + β7 * Dum (q1) + β8 * Dum (q2) + β9 * Dum (q3) + β10 * Dum (expansion) + u
In the term of economics, the changes in demand and supply cause the change in number of passengers. In my model, demand derives from the customs’ income, the population, the CPI and a dummy variable-quarters. With the increase of customs’ income, population and CPI, the demand will also increase and thus increases the number of passengers. Dummy (q1) = 1 if it is spring quarter; otherwise, it is 0. Similar for dummy (q2) and dummy (q3). In the other hand, supply derives from the expansions of GEG airport. Before the expansion, the Dummy (expansion) = 0 and equals to 1 after 2006. Furthermore, the change in passengers was also affected by 911 attack. Before 911 attack, the Dummy911 = 0 and equals to 1 after that. Since 911 attack decreased the number of passengers, I expect the value of β6 being negative.
The error term- u – may derive from some uncertainties. For example, another expansion program is in the process and the influence of this expansion is uncertain. Moreover, during 2001, 2004 and 2007, the number of passengers did not decrease in the winter. I also expect my model being homoscedasticity because the variance of error term seems to be constant. I also do not expect β1 being significant positive.
Data Section
The primary source of data used in this analysis is the Bureau of Transport Statistics 10 percent origin-destination survey. The mission of this website is to serve the United States by ensuring a fast, safe, efficient, accessible and convenient transportation system that meets our vital national interests and enhances the quality of life of the American people, today and into the future. From these data, passenger origins are developed for Spokane International airport by aggregating all passengers that originate from this airport. These data sets were supplemented by income and population statistics obtained from the Census Bureau’s “Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates” which provides data on income and population at the country level for 1993, 1995, and 1997-2009. The missing years were interpolated from the neighboring years. From the St. Louis Fed, a consumer price index was obtained to deflate the monetary variables. The dependent variable in the analysis of the size and growth of Spokane International airport is defined as the number of passengers. Following the e

Empirical results
Table 1

(1)
(2)
VARIABLES
Base model model 2

trend
502,128***
1.658e+06***

(43,172)
(305,672)
income_20

264.6

(609.5) pop_20 -1,414***

(190.5) cpi 590,366

(543,630) dum911 -1.104e+07***

(1.961e+06) quarter== 1

-6.012e+06***

(1.224e+06) quarter== 2

3.784e+06***

(1.242e+06) quarter== 3

711,665

(1.240e+06)
Dum(expansion)

1.587e+06

(2.570e+06)
Constant
6.521e+07***
6.271e+08***

(1.714e+06)
(8.192e+07)

Observations
68
68
R-squared
0.672
0.926
Standard errors in parentheses
*** p

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