AMERICAN MILITARY UNIVERSITY

Charles Town, West Virginia

PROPOSAL FOR RESEARCH PAPER

MASTER OF SCIENCE IN ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY & MANAGEMENT

2010

I propose to the Research Paper Professor a study of the following topic to be conducted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Environmental Policy & Management: Does global warming explain the relationship between the growing U.S. population and the rising average temperature in the U.S.?

Purpose Statement

The purpose of this study is to test the theory of global warming that relates the U.S. population growth to the average temperature increase in the U.S. The independent variable will be the rapidly growing U.S. population. The dependent variable will be the average climate increase in the U.S. The populations will be broken down into each individual state. Average temperature will be broken down into each individual state to get a clearer picture, since each state can have varying results with their relationships between population and temperature. This research project hopes to explain the growing U.S. population as the primary cause of the rising average temperature in the U.S. through the theories of global warming.

Statement of the Problem or Research Question(s) Does global warming explain the relationship between the growing U.S. Population and the rising average temperature in the U.S.? The rising average temperature in the U.S. is becoming problematic. Global warming is taking its effect on this developed country. Letting global warming continue to run rampant without mitigation can be disastrous for the U.S. So questions need to be asked about what the main factors are, that are contributing to global warming in the U.S.

Is there a direct correlation between the growing U.S. population and the rising average temperature in the U.S.? Is the growing U.S. population to blame for the rise in average temperature in the U.S.?
Is the growing U.S. population feeding the global warming phenomenon?
What is the rate of emissions per person in the U.S.?
Has the average temperature increased in the U.S. over the past century?
If the U.S. population increased or decreased drastically, would the average temperature in the U.S. change drastically as well?

Theoretical Framework (if any)(optional for research paper) A theoretical proposition this research project will have is whether humans are solely responsible for global warming. If this is true then it would only make sense that the higher the human population the higher global warming will be. But that relationship isn’t necessarily steady or proportional, this is a reason for conducting this research project. For example, I found out though the Data Collection Project, a state like New York, which has a much higher population than Indiana produces fewer emissions than Indiana. An observation like that proves that the relationship between population global warming and population is not constant and steady throughout all the states. This may also be a sign that the relationship between U.S. population and average U.S. temperature may not have a steady or proportional relationship amongst all the states.

Humans as the primary cause of global warming is a major assumption in this research project, since this project will not go into depth as to analyze every single avenue as to how humans contribute to global warming. We all know the theory of global warming involves the technological advancements of the human race as the cause for global warming. Humans produce much more waste that pollutes the environment compared to earlier times centuries ago when humans weren’t so technologically advanced. Ever since the Industrial Revolution, humans have increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, mostly caused by the burning of fossil fuels.

Hypotheses
The growing U.S. population will increase the average temperature in the United States during the 21st century.

Significance of the Study The significance in studying the relationship between population and average temperature in the U.S. can be dramatic. I believe it is very important for this relationship to be studied meticulously and in depth. We need to know if the population variable, if adjusted, would adjust the average temperature as well. A rise in a few degrees in the average temperature of the U.S. can be catastrophic because it will tamper with important balances in the environment, not to mention make it more uncomfortable for places that are already too warm. If this research project proves through all the data collected, that the U.S. population causes the rise in average temperature in the U.S. then states and government can be more aware about that fact and may even have to employ drastic measures in the future, such as China’s one child per family law, if there are no other ways to adjust everyone’s lifestyle and produce less pollution. If this research proves otherwise, states and government can be more aware that it is not necessarily population that causes increased temperatures but other factors. Those other factors can be looked at more closely and mitigated through proper means.

Research Design and Methods

Many numbers will be collected for this research project so a quantitative method will be used instead of qualitative. The type of quantitative design I will be employing for this research project would be survey design. I would use survey design because I am looking for trends in all the information this research project collects. The type of survey design I will use would be longitudinal because I would collect data from a long period of time, specifically U.S. Populations and average U.S. Temperatures per state from the 20th to 21st century. As for the population and sample, the type of sampling procedure I'd use would be single stage. I would use a single-stage sampling procedure because the researcher would have access to the information of each U.S. State and can access each state directly. The type of instrumentation I would use for this research project to collect all the data would be a thorough check of data from the U.S. Census Bureau to collect population information for each U.S. state the past century and information from the National Weather Service to collect average temperatures for U.S. each state the past century. The validity of this information would be the best available because the information will be coming from official reports from government bureaus. The reliability of this data would also be the best available, since once again the information would be coming from official government reports.

Data Analysis
Step 1: The response rate for this research project should be very good because I anticipate we will receive all the numbers we are looking for through archives of data of from each U.S. government bureaus we will be inquiring from.
Step 2: I do not anticipate much response bias at this time of the research project unless there is some missing data from each of the 50 states the past 110 years. This project will gather all information regarding population and average temperatures from all 50 states for the past 110 years to determine the course of the 21st century or next 90 years, which would be very valuable information for the leaders of this country in order to make better decisions about the future.
Step 3: The descriptive analysis will be very thorough for this research project since there will be so much data to collect and even more analyzing of the data once it is all received. I will put all data on graphs and charts to make it easier to analyze and notice any trends. The descriptive analysis will include means, standard deviations, and range of data for U.S. Population and U.S. Temperatures.
Step 4: This research project will not really contain an instrument with scales other than the scales used to measure U.S. Population and U.S. Temperatures.
Step 5: An inferential statistical analysis will be conducted in order to prove the hypotheses to be true or false. The results from the research can be tested in several different ways to determine the validity of the hypotheses. The T-Test, Mann-Whitney U Test, and Pearson product moment correlation are some tests that may fit will with the data received.
Step 6: This final step of interpreting and presenting the data is the most crucial step in the data analysis process. It will provide the ability to turn numerous amounts of data into something that can make sense and prove the hypotheses to be true or false. It will interpret any trends to determine if global warming is at work with the U.S. human population to influence average U.S. Temperatures. All the data received will be placed on charts and graphs to get a better picture of any trends occurring. This data interpretation step would be similar to finding a formula to a complex math problem in order to find future values with variables provided. Any solid evidence uncovered linking U.S. population growth to be connected with average rising temperature in the U.S. would be significant. Overall I believe this research project is worth the time and effort to be conducted, because if we study and analyze the past and present we may have a better prediction of where the future is going, so we can make any adjustments necessary.
List of References

1.) Cresswell, John W. (2009) Research Design: Quantitative, Qualitative, and Mixed Methods Approaches. Third Edition. Sage Publications Inc.

2.)Goklany, Indur M. (2006) Climate Change in the 21st Century. Social Science and Modern Society Vol 43, No. 6

3.)Sinding, Steven W. PhD. (2000) The Great Population Debates: How Relevant Are They for the 21st Century? American Journal of Public Health Vol. 90, No.12

4.)Wood, Gordon S. (2009) America's First Climate Debate. American History February 2010. Oxford University Press

5.) Freedman, Robert (2008) American Population Growth: A view from 1957. Population and Development Review Vol 34. Blackwell Publishing.