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Gold Etfs as an Investment Option

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“Gold ETF’s – An Investment Option”

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Pawan Walecha (M.B.A.-Finance) pavan_walecha@rediffmail.com 9595532810; 9819420664

Gold ETF’s – An Investment Option

Abstract
Financial investment is putting money into something with the expectation of gain that upon thorough analysis has a high degree of security for the principal amount, as well as security of return, within an expected period of time. Gold has been used as a store of value and form of currency since ancient times. Gold has always been a symbol of stability and wealth. People tend to think about buying gold more as a saving than vehicle for as an investment but it does not need to be so. Gold has the same features as every other asset worth investing in, whether stock, bonds, mutual funds, or even commodities like corn, tobacco, crude oil or other precious metals. The present paper aims at discovering and analyzing risk in the emerging security in the stock market i.e Gold ETFs. The basic aim of the study is to study the financial performance of Gold etfs and to check its suitability for inclusion of gold etfs, rating of selected Gold etfs is also done based on funds performance.
Keywords: Gold Exchange Traded Funds, Beta, Performance evaluation, NSE.

Introduction
The idea of Gold ETF was first conceptualized by Benchmark Asset Management Company Private Ltd. in India, when they filed a proposal with the SEBI in May 2002. However, there was no regulatory approval then and later it was launched in March 2007.
The first Gold Exchange-Traded Fund was actually launched in March 2003 on the Australian Stock Exchange under Gold Bullion Securities (ticker symbol "GOLD"). Graham Tuckwell, the founder and major shareholder of ETF Securities, was behind the launch of this fund. Now-a-days, as stock market is very sensitive so people are trying for alternative sources; so study related to Gold Etfs as an investment option is essential.

Objectives Of The Study

The objectives of the study are to: * Focus the Gold ETF as a good investment option * Stress upon the inclusion of Gold ETF in a portfolio for risk diversification. * Assist the investor in the selection of the best Gold ETF option * To study and measure the financial performance using various theories.

Methodology
The period of study is for Five years starting from the inception of Gold ETFs in India i.e. April 2007 to March 2012. For calculation purpose out of 14 Gold Etfs only six are being considered. Reason for that is other are newly started and few are recently started.

Gold: An Investment Option
There are enough reasons why gold should be included in any investor's portfolio whether in physical or paper form. Investing in gold ETFs will give the investor all the advantages of investing in gold while eliminating drawbacks of physical gold -- cost of storage, liquidity and purity, among others.
Of all the precious metals, gold is the most popular as an investment. Investors generally buy gold as a hedge or safe haven against any economic, political, social, or fiat currency crises (including investment market declines, burgeoning national debt, currency failure, inflation, war and social unrest). The gold market is also subject to speculation as other commodities are, especially through the use of futures contracts and derivatives. The history of the gold standard, the role of gold reserves in central banking, gold's low correlation with other commodity prices, and its pricing in relation to fiat currencies during the financial crisis of 2007–2010, suggest that gold has features of being money. Fundamentals of Gold are very strong because: It has Long-term stability of purchasing power, Negative correlation with real interest rates and Positive correlation with financial distress.
In the times of growing uncertainty about the global economy, volatility in the equity markets and the weakening of Indian Rupee against the US Dollar has set the gold prices soaring to record highs, hugely benefiting the investors of Gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).

Four Year Movement of Gold Prices in USD /Oz during 2007-20012Gold Rates Source: www.goldprice.org

Gold Etfs: Risk Diversifier
Two Portfolios were made ‘A’ and ‘B’ with the consent of Branch Manager of Sharekhan, Amravati. Portfolio A comprises of three securities- Shares of ICICI Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra and TCS. Portfolio B also comprises of three securities- Shares of ICICI Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra and Goldbees Gold etf ; sharing equal weight. Following table shows the results

Portfolio Analysis Source: Computed

Gold Etfs: Best Option
Having convinced about the inclusion of Gold ETF in the portfolio, the investor will be in a dilemma as to the selection of the best Gold ETF from the available Gold ETFs in the stock market. From the graph we can observe that there are 14 ETFs of same weight. Since their inception, moved quite closely together and hardly any difference between the ETFs can be noticed. However in case of Quantum ETF is due to the fact that the unit is approximately 0.5 grams whereas for other Gold ETFs it is one gram so it is not considered. Earlier, the difference in the returns of Gold ETFs existed mainly due to the difference in the expense ratio. Therefore, the selection of Gold ETFs was based on lower expense ratio, as the closing prices of Gold ETFs were more or less the same. However, now in case of all GoldETFs, the expense ratio is 1% of net average assets. Therefore, the return in case of all Gold ETFs is more or less the same as reflected in following graph. Hence, inclusion of any Gold ETF in the portfolio of assets would diversify the risk.

Movement of Gold Etfs Source: moneycontrol.com

Parameters | Gold ETF | Jeweler | Banks | Mode | Demat | Jewellery/Bar/ Coins | Bar / Coins | Safety/Storage | No risk of theft | High Risk | High Risk | Purity of Gold | 99.5 % or higher | Can’t Say | High on Purity | Pricing | Transparent. Low on cost. | Can’t Say | High Mark up | Liquidity | On business days on the Exchange | Relatively at High Cost | Low on Liquidity | Denomination | 1 unit (1 gram of Gold) | Customized | Pre-define |
Portfolio Evaluation
1) Measure for sharpe's portfolios performance
The Sharpe's index measures the risk premium of the portfolio relative to the total amount of risk in portfolio. The Sharpe's index is measured as S = RP – Rf /σp
2) Treynor's performance measures for portfolios
Jack Treynor, as measures by portfolio beta coefficients put an index of portfolio performance that is based on systematic risk, forward. It is used to rank the interest performance of different assets. It is a risk - adjusted rate of return measure than Expenditure ratio is calculated by dividing the assets risk premium by their beta coefficient. Tn = rP – rf /βp Evaluation (Apr2010-Mar12) | Particulars | Return (Rp) | SD of Portfolio (σp) | Beta of Portfolio (βp) | Riskfree (Rf)% | Mrkt. Return | Sharps =(Rp-Rf)/σp | Treynors = (Rp-Rf)/βp | | | | | | | Value | Rank | Value | Rank | GOLDBEES | 62.31 | 378.55 | 1.8 | 7 | 45.71 | 0.1461 | 2 | 30.7278 | 2 | GOLDSHARE | 60.8 | 377.50 | 1.8 | 7 | 45.71 | 0.1425 | 5 | 29.8889 | 5 | KOTAKGOLD | 62.5 | 384.02 | 1.82 | 7 | 45.71 | 0.1445 | 3 | 30.4945 | 3 | RELGOLD | 64.1 | 354.85 | 1.69 | 7 | 45.71 | 0.1609 | 1 | 33.7870 | 1 | SBIGETS | 64.61 | 400.10 | 1.89 | 7 | 45.71 | 0.1440 | 4 | 30.4815 | 4 | RELIGAREGO | 63.14 | 394.99 | 1.88 | 7 | 45.71 | 0.1421 | 6 | 29.8617 | 6 |

Evaluation (Apr2010-Mar12) | Jensens= αp/βp | Particulars | (Rp-Rf) | (Rm-Rf) | βp | β(Rm-Rf) | αp | αp/βp | Rank | GOLDBEES | 55.31 | 38.71 | 1.8 | 69.678 | -14.368 | -7.98222 | 2 | GOLDSHARE | 53.8 | 38.71 | 1.8 | 69.678 | -15.878 | -8.82111 | 5 | KOTAKGOLD | 55.5 | 38.71 | 1.82 | 70.4522 | -14.9522 | -8.21549 | 3 | RELGOLD | 57.1 | 38.71 | 1.69 | 65.4199 | -8.3199 | -4.92302 | 1 | SBIGETS | 57.61 | 38.71 | 1.89 | 73.1619 | -15.5519 | -8.22852 | 4 | RELIGAREGO | 56.14 | 38.71 | 1.88 | 72.7748 | -16.6348 | -8.8483 | 6 |

Return Analysis | Particular | Expenses Ratio | 6 Month (Oct2011-Mar2012) | 1year(April2011-Mar2012) | 2 year (April2010-Mar2012) | | | | | | GOLDBEES | 1% | 3.22 | 25.71 | 62.31 | GOLDSHARE | 1% | 2.18 | 24.16 | 60.80 | KOTAKGOLD | 1% | 2.88 | 26.14 | 62.50 | RELGOLD | 1% | 5.78 | 26.03 | 64.10 | SBIGETS | 1% | 3.84 | 35.09 | 64.61 | RELIGAREGO | 1% | 2.73 | 25.50 | 63.14 |

Findings
Many new Gold etfs are now listed in year range of 2011-12; previously it was only 7 but now we have 15 Gold etfs listed only on NSE.
Investment in gold is considered as a best way to mitigate the risk and hedge the portfolio. Goldbees etf is found to be best performer.
The Volatility in gold prices is very less as compared to the equities market instilling confidence in the minds of the investors to possess gold proving it to be a strong asset class.
Allocation of a portion of investment in Gold ETF would diversify the Portfolio risk. As the return in case of all Gold ETFs is more or less the same, inclusion of any Gold ETF in the portfolio of assets would diversify the risk.
Conclusion
It may be concluded that the there is huge difference in analysis policies for Gold etfs and other Securities listed on NSE. The trading in Gold ETFs is increasing over the time as the gold prices are regularly touching new high and the investors are investing in these ETFs for earning fair and sure profits in future, without taxes and without fear of theft. It is also evident from the study that the prices of ETFs have less variation than the index of NSE. That’s why the investment in ETFs is increasing over the time period. It looks the confidence of investor in ETFs is increasing and therefore the future of Gold ETFs’ is bright in India

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