...International Journal of Applied Business and Economic Research, Vol. 9, No. 2, (2011): 145-165 STUDY ON DYNAMIC RELATIONSHIP AMONG GOLD PRICE, OIL PRICE, EXCHANGE RATE AND STOCK MARKET RETURNS K. S. Sujit1 and B. Rajesh Kumar2 Abstract: The dynamic and complex relationship among economic variables has attracted the researchers, policy makers and business people alike. This study is an attempt to test the dynamic relationship among gold price, stock returns, exchange rate and oil price. All these variables have witnessed significant changes over time and hence, it is absolutely necessary to validate the relationship periodically. This study takes daily data from 2nd January 1998 to 5th June 2011, constituting 3485 observations. Using techniques of time series the study tried to capture dynamic and stable relationship among these variables using vector autoregressive and cointegration technique. The results show that exchange rate is highly affected by changes in other variables. However, stock market has fewer roles in affecting the exchange rate. In this study we tested two models and one model suggests that there is weak long term relationship among variables. JEL classification: C22; E3; Keywords: Unit root tests; granger causality test, Cointegration; Vector auto regression (VAR) INTRODUCTION Gold was one of the first metals humans excavated. Gold as an asset has a hybrid nature: it is a commodity used in many industries but also it has maintained throughout history a unique...
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... DECREASE IN GOLD PRICE OVER LAST FEW MONTHS IN INDIA From ancient time Indian people and specially women were crazy about gold. All people wheather from higher, middle, and lower class are wishing to buy gold or gold made ornament by any means. Some of them are buy gold for prestigious purpose wheather some are buy as an investment for future. So gold is used as investment and exchange purpose too. An important fact is that Resurve Bank of India have to store gold equal to the amount of money that has been circulated all over the country. So RBI can issue currency depending on the amount of gold they stored. Here another interesting and important fact is that during the financial crisis in the year 1990, india have very limited foreign currency to import from outside. At that time Indian Government accuired foreign currency by giving gold that they save in foreign country as mortgage. In the month of November, 2012 gold price was approx Rs 32490 per 10 gm which was come down to approx Rs 25550 per 10 gm in the month of April, 2013 and in the last month it is approx Rs 28000 per 10 gm. So comparing with the price of November, 2012 now gold price is decreased by 20%. And as a result Indian people lost approx Rs 1400000 Crore during last 6-7 month. It is a fact that according to the demand of gold, supply is limited. A survey report says that the value of total gold of the world is 8 Trillion doller.According to the American Geological Society, the amount of gold present in all...
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...Relationship among Inflation, Gold Price and US Dollar Abstract: This paper proposes a cointegration analysis method to explore the relationship among inflation, gold price and US dollar, using weekly, monthly data. With the VAR model, the three time series are formed to present the volatility of variables and the long-term equilibrium relationship. The Granger Causality test will proof whether each variable can be used to improve causality of another variable in the dynamics of the VAR model. Then OLS approach is extended to model estimation. Using ADF Unit root test, the stationary of each time series is verified. Last, I will take cointegration analysis to provide a specific estimation of the model. As is discussed above, I will draw the conclusion that the inflation rate can be forecast by gold price and US dollar. [pic] Key Words: inflation, CPI, gold price, US dollar I INTRO 1. Introduction: There are many factors contributing to the change of gold price. Among all the factors, inflation rate and US dollar draw the most attention. Although the gold price had been rising before August 1971, we take this as the start point for this rally since it marks the date the US government informed the IMF that the US dollar would no longer be convertible into gold. This consequently led to the collapse of one of the main pillars of the 1944 Bretton Woods system. During the long term in which gold price changed in the opposite...
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...DISSERTATION Title “Affect of Gold Prices on the Stock Market of Pakistan" Abstract The research is on the impact of gold prices on the stock market of Pakistan. With an increase in gold prices investors find it more profitable to invest their money into gold as the value of gold per gram is high due to its increased demand. When investors invest into gold naturally they don’t have money to invest in other places like stocks thus stock market is affected by gold prices. The attractive gold price takes the attention of the investor and as a result less investment in stock is made and stock market suffers. This paper aims to find this relationship between stock market and gold prices. In this research Karachi stock exchange has been considered as the stock market to see the relationship with gold prices. ADF unit root test and granger causality test have been used in this research. The results showed that data series for both gold and KSE 100 index has integration at first order. The results also showed that there is a relationship between stock market and gold prices and the relationship is bidirectional. Gold prices affect the Karachi stock exchange and Karachi stock exchange also affects gold prices. Keywords: Gold prices, stock market, gold price and stock market, gold and stock market relationship. Table of Contents Sr.# | DESCRIPTION | PAGE NO. | 1 | AcknowledgEment……………………………………... | I | 2 | ABSTRACT………………………………………………….. | II | 3 | CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION…………………………...
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...Of Management Lucknow August 2013 A MICROECONOMIC STUDY ON GOLD Submitted to Professor Sanjay K Singh By Section E, Group J Aman Doharey (PGP30244) Mahesh Raja R (ABM11045) Prerna Pal (PGP30265) Rohit Mandappalli (PGP29341) Shradhha MeryllinePanna (PGP30280) Swagata Das Chowdhury (PGP30419) Tanuj Kumar Lodhi (PGP30420) Table of Contents Introduction Background Protection Requirement Elasticity Of Gold Gold Consumption Scenario in India Need and Objective Of Study Research Methodology Tools and Techniques Hypotheses Data Analysis 1. US Dollar 2. Crude Oil 3. Silver 4. Inflation 5. Sensex Values Findings and Conclusions INTRODUCTION This report emphasizes on studying, interpreting and illustrating the various economic factors affecting the consumption and price of the precious metal Gold. We examine the impact of factors that maybe reason for such distortion and also see how the change in gold price impacts other commodities in the open market. Background Used as a sovereign since ages, gold has always been a sought after commodity. The price variation has almost always been upwards and has had a steep rise in this trend. A few pointers about Gold can be inferred as below. Production Gold is majorly obtained through mining, other sources may include recycling, trading etc. Through these sources gold enters the market. Requirement Gold is an essential commodity in any country’s economic state. It is...
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...Forecasting Gold Price, using linear regression model and ARIMA DIANE MAHAMEDOU Department of Economics, Business and Finance, Brooklyn College, 2900 Bedford Avenue Brooklyn, N.Y. 11210, USA Instructor:Prof. Yusheng Peng Abstract: Forecasting is a function in management to assist decision making. Forecasting arises when you need to estimate future unknown situations, such price of commodities, GDP, unemployment rate etc, for the coming period. We can’t accurately predict without referring time series estimation. Gold is a precious yellow commodity once used as money. Illegal couple years ago, now once again is accepted as a potential currency, because of the falling of dollar against the Euro and also the rising of uncertainty in our geopolitical environment. Objective of this study is to develop a forecasting model for predicting gold prices based on two currency price movements and the oil price movements. Following the melt-down of US dollars, investors are putting their money into gold because gold plays an important role as a stabilizing influence for investment portfolios. With the increasing demand of the Gold around the world, we have fund necessary to develop a linear regression model that reflects the structure and pattern of gold market and forecast movement of gold price. The most appropriate approach to the understanding of gold prices is the multiple linear regression (MLR) models. MLR is a study on the relationship between a single dependent variable and one...
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...For everyone who is of marriageable age, words like kundlis, gunas, doshas, etc., being constantly mentioned by family and relatives, is nothing new. Whether your marriage has been fixed by family, or whether you have chosen your life partner yourself, everyone still wants you to get the kundlis matched. But why is it still followed by so many families and couples? Kundlis or horoscopes have been an integral part of the Indian wedding scene from times unknown. Despite such a drastic level of development and adaptation of western culture, these ancient beliefs still play a major role in Indian matchmaking. Do birth charts or horoscopes really matter, or are they just another sign of our superstitions? Is it okay to ignore them as just old and outdated customs? We try to find it out here. Recommended Read: Tricks to Use His Sun Sign that will Make Him Propose to You How does it work? Time and again, it has been proved that movements of our ruling planets have a major effect on our lives. Astrologers are able to determine compatibility between two people by studying the cosmic charts associated with each one. When astrologers match kundlis, they look at key factors like location, date and time of birth. The results are based on position of planets and stars. The match that comes up with more gunas (positive points) is considered a good match. Image Courtesy: Faizan Patel Photography The gunas are matched based on point system, with eight gunas, each carrying a different...
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...Journal of Advanced Management Science Vol. 2, No. 1, March 2014 The Determinants of Gold Prices in Malaysia Siti Nurulhuda Ibrahim, Nurul Izzat Kamaruddin, and Rahayu Hasan Universiti Teknologi MARA, Bandaraya Melaka, Malaysia Email: {Sitinur304, nrl_izzat, rahayuhasan} @bdrmelaka.uitm.edu.my Abstract—This paper analysed factors that affecting the prices of gold in Malaysia. The study used Multiple Linear Regression Model to determined significant relationship between dependent and independent variables, covering data for 10 years period which are from 2003 until 2012. The researcher used three independent variables that affect the prices of gold which are crude oil prices, inflation rates and exchange rates. The empirical results have found there is negatively significant relationship between inflation rates and exchange rates on gold prices, while a crude oil price is positively significant. The results of the study are valuable for both academic and investor. Index Terms—determinant, gold prices, crude oil prices, inflation rates, exchange rates price and sell it at high price later on. Thus, this is why the factors that affect the gold price must be determined so that people may estimate the timing to buy, hold or sell the gold. This study is made to seek the proofs for the possible factors that affect the gold price in Malaysia. From this research, the most important or most influence factor can also be determined. Simply put, the findings for this research will bring...
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...Applied Scientific Research www.textroad.com Factors Affecting the Price of Gold in Malaysia Hanif Zakaria, Nabilah Abdul Shukur, Salwani Affandi, Wan Mansor Wan Mahmood Faculty of Business Management Universiti Teknologi MARA, Dungun, Terengganu, Malaysia Received: March 9, 2015 Accepted: June 16, 2015 ABSTRACT Gold is a precious metal which serves as both financial and real assets. The value of gold in the society goes more than just economic, as it is also treasured as a storage and display of mammon and culture.Of late, the price of gold is not stable in which it tends to oscillatecontingent on the economic condition. In the long-run, its prices keep increasing due to high demand and inadequate supply worldwide. However, in the short-run, its price seems to be volatile due to various potential reasons. Therefore, this study was conducted to determine the factors influencing gold prices in Malaysia. In order to achieve the objective, Stata software was used to assess the prospective relationships between the gold prices as the dependent variable and the inflation rate, interest rate and exchange rate as independent variablesby using Pooled Ordinary Least Squares (POLS) methodology. The monthly data employed in this study spans across a 14 years period from year 2000 until 2013. The results revealed that the rates of inflation, exchange and interest were significantly related with gold prices in Malaysia in different magnitude and direction.It is empirically...
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...the palm oil price changes on the buyers and the sellers with the relation with the demand and the supply of the palm oil in the market. Gold h become the trend of nowadays and people tend to invest their money in gold to for the stability in future. Thus, the price of the gold is keeping increasing and the impact may not the same as the other kind of commodity such as crude oil and rubber. The few stock of gold in market and the investor attitude in keeping the gold gave the influence to the price in the market. As the gold is having the value on its on interior value, there is not much advancement of technologies in the industries. This supply will never increase in the market with the high demand each year especially on the festive seasons, thus, the gold price will always increase. Abstract Keywords: Gold, Commodity, Supply, demand, price. Introduction The articles “The Gold Rush is on” was cited from The Star Online written on 5 May 2011 by Vijenthi Nair. People are now rushing to by the gold as the price of the gold was kept on increasing each week. Even though the price is hiking non- stop gold lover is keep on hunting for the gold as they are fear the price will go even higher. The price increased has created the demand for gold to become higher as people have non-stop buying due to a lot of speculation created. In spite of it, people still hope for the price to go lower as they will buy more for the future investment. The increasing of the gold demand had...
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...determinants of the gold price in Malaysia RESEARCH OBJECTIVES 1. To determine the relationship between USD-MYR exchange rate on the Malaysian gold price. 2. To determine the relationship between the price of crude oil on the Malaysian gold price. 3. To determine the relationship between the Malaysian Gross Domestic Product on the Malaysian gold price 4. To determine the relationship between inflation rate on the Malaysian gold price. 5. To determine what are the stronger factors influencing the price of gold in Malaysia LITERATURE REVIEW There are number of group studies literature related with the functions gold has in the economy. The first group includes the literature showing how gold price is affected by macroeconomic news (Dooley et al., 1995; Fortune, 1987; Sherman, 1983; Sjaastad and Scacciallani, 1996; Wang and Lee, 2011). These studies investigate the relation of gold price with economic variables which includes inflation, interest rate, exchange rate etc. Second group includes the literature focusing on the examined the influencing factors in the variations of the gold price (Diba and Grossman, 1984; Pindyck, 1993; Baker and Tassel, 1985). Third group includes the literature aiming on the advantage of using gold in diversifying risk for a long-run portfolio (Chua et al., 1990; Sherman, 1986; Michaud et al., 2006; Ciner, 2011; Jaffe, 1989). Fourth group includes the literature focusing on the inflation hedging effectiveness of gold (Kolluri, 1981;...
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...prevailing value of gold in Pakistan and other countries of the world has always been a much sought-after item both for men and women of all ages. Gold rates vary daily as it is one of the most loved and precious elements in the world. This great value of the metal is owed not only to its elegance and glamour but also its charm. For a woman, the designs and the sizes of golden jewels are more important than the price and they are willing to pay any amount for the jewelry they fall in love with. Gold has always been the first love for every woman and many men since the advent of civilization as much as it is today. In the middle ages, it was exchanged for the commodity to be sold or bought rather than currency. The value of this element in Pakistan, before the arrival of the British Regime, was also measured in the similar way. There was a time when the prices in one country were entirely divergent from another, which made it a premium metal for international trade. Because of the rise of mutual trade, universally integrated banking system and interdependent economies, the rates of this precious element have got prime importance in the global scenario. The gold rates in Pakistan vary according to the purity of its karats. In many European countries, the prices are determined according to the Millesimal fineness scale, which is getting in vogue as a new method of measuring the purity and prices of gold. KARACHI: Investors diversify their investments by including gold to maintain a...
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...Gold Anonymous. Metal Bulletin Monthly 418 (Oct 2005): 50-51. Abstract (summary) Pure - or 1,000 thousandths - gold is equivalent to 24 carats, but gold is generally used as an alloy because it is such a soft metal. The jewellers' terms "fine gold" and "pure gold" mean 920 and 840 thousandth alloys respectively, the balance being supplied by copper. The addition of copper produces red and pink golds, while deep yellow gold is practically 100% pure and "white gold" is often a gold alloy containing nickel and palladium. Pure - or 1,000 thousandths - gold is equivalent to 24 carats, but gold is generally used as an alloy because it is such a soft metal. The jewellers' terms "fine gold" and "pure gold" mean 920 and 840 thousandth alloys respectively, the balance being supplied by copper. The addition of copper produces red and pink golds, while deep yellow gold is practically 100% pure and "white gold" is often a gold alloy containing nickel and palladium. Full Text Gold is among the oldest metals known to mankind, over whom it has often exerted a compelling force of attraction because of its rarity, lustrous beauty and permanence. A sun-yellow ductile metallic element, gold mostly occurs as nuggets in rocks and alluvial deposits. It has a high melting point (1,063°C) and is one of the best conductors of heat and electricity, as well as being resistant to corrosion, except from chlorine, fluorine and aqua regia acid. It is one of the densest elements at 19.3 g/cm^sup...
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...Disadvantages of the Gold Standard Angelina Di Mauro BUS 450 Wendy Achilles July 14, 2012 The Advantages and Disadvantages of the Gold Standard The Gold Standard is a historic monetary system in which the standard unit of account is a fixed weight of gold, and though the main benefit is that it insures a relatively low level of inflation, economies on the gold standard are less able to avoid or offset either monetary or real shocks. Gold has been known as the currency of choice throughout history, and at one point in time the country that had the most gold was known to be the wealthiest. By the eighteen hundreds many countries began to seek new ways to produce wealth through standardized transactions. As a result the gold standard was adopted as means to exchange currency in a new world market, and means to regulate the production of paper money in world economies. The following will highlight both the advantages and disadvantages of the historic gold standard monetary system. The paper will come to a conclusion with an emphasis on why many countries had to abandon this momentous means of exchange. According to one source, “the gold standard was a commitment by participating countries to fix the prices of their domestic currencies in terms of a specified amount of gold. National money and other forms of money, i.e. bank deposits and notes, were freely converted into gold at a fixed price” (Bordo, pg 1 ¶1). In a new world market the gold standard was a way to...
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...1. The Gold Standard was the equivalence of the county’s currency in exchange for gold. For example, in 1933, the United States price of gold was $20.67. Domestically The Gold Standard regulated the quantity and growth rate of a country’s money supply, and internationally it determined exchange rates for participating countries as well. Because these exchange rates were fixed, this cause the price levels around the world to move together through an automatic balance-of-payments adjustment process. If one country was able to increase its production rate, this would cause a drop in prices, which would lead to more exports and the transfer of money from one country to another. The Gold Standard assured long-term price stability, but it also caused prices to be very unstable in the short-term. This is because of gold discoveries occurring around the world at unpredictable times. Many counties also did not follow the “Rules of the Game”, which caused the Gold...
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