Growing China: Will China Share Superpower Status with United States?

After the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, United States has remained her superpower status and has established her hegemony all around the world. In the 21st century, everybody waits for a country to fill the gap that was left by the Soviet Union to compete with the United States. Now, China is the most potential country that can be a superpower competing with US. China has developed herself since she became a communist state, especially, it is the past 20 years that China has improved from a state once isolated form rest of the world, into a regional superpower as potentially a state having the capacity to change the future direction of world events. By 2020, China hopes to compete with United States, however, that is not so easy for US to share her superpower status with China and US does not want to engage in another Cold War. First of all, what is a superpower? We need to define superpower to understand that China will possess the status of what and whether she benefits from it. During the second half of the twentieth century the concept of superpower status has been unique and without precedent. This is due to the fact that in this period, a superpower by definition possesses nuclear capabilities. While the UK, a superpower in the nineteenth century, now possesses nuclear capabilities, it is lacking in other attributes. Today’s superpower possesses four attributes, which confer upon it this status. Firstly, a superpower must possess large diversified national economy; secondly, it must own major conventional military force; thirdly, it must hold nuclear weapon capabilities; and lastly, it must enjoy strategic geographic location. During the period 1950-90 two countries satisfied the four conditions for superpower status; these were the US and Soviet Union. Today, United States is the only country that has those conditions and China appears the most likely candidate to achieve superpower status. China has developed a modest-sized nuclear weapon capability. Secondly, she occupies a pivotal position in the Eurasian land mass. Its position may be superior to that of the former Soviet Union, since China possesses a lengthy coastline, with many large ports and natural harbors. China’s ship construction industry is now one of the world’s largest, and China enjoys a growing comparative advantage in this industry sector. Thirdly, throughout the past 25 years China’s economy has seen an uncharacteristically high economic growth rate. Prior to 1978, China had closed its doors to the rest of the world, preventing Western ideals from entering China. Economic reform began with the privatization of the agricultural industry in 1978. Within a five-year span, the agricultural sector saw substantial growth. The success of this liberal policy eventually led to other changes within the Chinese economy. In 1980, China developed Special Economic Zones (SEZ), which provided a window of exchange to the outside world. China had been in economic isolation until the 1980s, and the SEZs provided a way for Western economic policies to be introduced into certain regions of China. Regulations for foreign direct investment were also relaxed in these zones. Eventually, communist China let market competition play a role in its economy. Restrictions on the formation of new businesses were slowly relaxed. Private industries soon formed at a fast rate, and at the same time the levels of foreign investment entering into their market increased. China’s economy developed gradually from these reform policies. China first focused on the rural areas with agricultural reform, and then moved to reform its urban areas with the SEZs. It moved from microeconomic policy into macro-economic policy to develop its economy. This gradual development was necessary due to the large population and the large area over which reform was needed. This gradual restructuring of economic policy eventually paved the way for China to enter into the World Trade Organization (WTO). And finally, Economic growth over the past 20 years has provided China with the resources with which to yield greater power and influence in the world. Along with its increasing economic strength, China must develop its military in order to rival the US, which is regarded as the world’s sole military superpower. As we see China has possessed the four attributes which are requirements of being superpower. Furthermore, China has been developing her four attributes day by day. China may benefit form this status. Superpowers are listened to regarding political and economic issues and problems, Superpowers possess an agenda-setting capability in international affairs and within international organizations. In spite of being a potential candidate for superpower status, China has many problems that have to be solved. Being a superpower does not only mean holding these four attributes, China has to clean her negative images and gain legitimacy from other countries. We can note that China has six negative images: great power rivalry with the United States, inevitable conflict over the reunification of Taiwan, breakdown of domestic law and order, human rights abuses and a repressive political system, widespread social unrest, and corruption within the political system. Firstly, the United States and China certainly have different national goals. Areas of cooperation are intermingled with areas of competition, and the two countries are definitely rivals in certain areas. This rivalry is held back by a large number of issues over which the two powers see more or less eye-to-eye. Unfortunately, looking at the way this relationship is depicted in contemporary American newspapers, a great amount of time and effort is devoted to predicting an inevitable conflict between the United States and China. The vast majority of articles surveyed portrayed China’s diplomacy to be irrational and confrontational, her military to be expanding and preparing for a confrontation, and its long term goals to be nothing less than unchallenged hegemony in Asia. Secondly, the future of Taiwan is, of course, an issue of critical importance to the People’s Republic of China. It has publicly stated that it is willing to use force to reunify the two countries should Taiwan publicly declare independence. The 1995–96 Taiwan Strait Crisis was a public display of Beijing’s commitment to assert itself should Taiwan become too headstrong. Thirdly, the economic reforms begun under Deng Xiaoping have steadily been reworking the socialist state of Mao Zedong. This process has been gradually intensifying throughout the last 20 years, but recently, especially with accession to the World Trade Organization, the economic dislocation from the breakup of the old system has increased, and along with it, crime and the disintegration of the social order. Fourth negative image is the abuses of human rights and a repressive political system. As Mao Zedong’s famous saying goes, ‘Power comes from the barrel of a gun’. Since the Communist Party took control of China in 1949, challenges to the regimes authority have been met with severe response. However, since the economic modernization program of Deng Xiaoping, subtle yet irresistible forces have been forcing Chinese society to open. Seasoned China watchers no doubt can perceive the many changes that have occurred in the last decade or two. Fifth negative image is the social unrest: in the past few years, China’s transition towards a market economy has begun to seriously erode the stability created during the years of the ‘Iron Rice Bowl’. New opportunities have been created for some, but for many Chinese, the transition has not been smooth, nor has the end product been beneficial. As the social and economic system of the country continues to change, there will be many Chinese who face unwanted consequences of the transition. Finally, the concept of guanxi, or ‘connections’, is given much attention as a key concept to understanding personal relations in China. When examined in terms of government, though, the idea is exaggerated to a degree where personal favoritism and corruption are rampant in the Chinese government. Despite its egalitarian communist rhetoric, government has been dominated for years by self-interested elites with no care for helping the masses. Another important problem beside these six negative images is the population of China. The classic Chinese novel ‘Dream of the Red Chamber’ has one famous line: “The bigger it is, the bigger the problems”. China’s big problem is her population; there are just too many people. This is a problem which is a very real one and which must be addressed in practical terms-theory and ideals do not always solve real problems. China’s people must live and eat, the children need education, the older people need social benefits, the young and middle-aged need work. The Government of the People’s Republic of China must provide all of this: food, staples, housing, education, employment, every kind of social insurance and welfare, hospitals and healthy working environments. The provision of all these things must be considered from the perspective not only of China’s bustling cities and exploding economic coastal regions, but from the perspective of China’s rural masses, minority regions, underdeveloped backwaters, mountain ranges and deserts, which constitute a great part of the geographical mass that is China. China must consider the disparity between eastern and western regions, urban and rural. Regardless of where people are born, in all areas of China they have the right to exist. When we compare the positive images that are the four attributes that China possesses and the negative images, we can see that negative ones overwhelm the positive ones. Hence, we can not consider China as a superpower now but this does not mean that it will not possess superpower status in few decades. As noted at the beginning China is the most potential country that will become a superpower. China has to overcome these problems, if she wants to be a superpower.