...CHAPTER PART 2 2 Forecasting Demand and Supply FORECASTING DEMAND AND SUPPLY LEARNING OBJECTIVES • • • • • • Understand and select information required to forecast HRP Identify members of the HR planning team Understand the four steps in the HRP process Apply techniques to forecast HR demand and supply Describe various methods for assessing labour planning (quantitative and qualitative) Discuss key challenges in forecasting HR demand and supply 26 Part 2 | Forecasting Demand and Supply ■ PROFILE The Great Pyramid of Giza The Great Pyramid of Giza has fascinated the world for centuries and is revered as one of the greatest mysteries of time. When it was first built it was 145 metres tall, making it the tallest structure on the earth for over 4,300 years. Egyptologists argue that even with all of the human and computer advancements achieved to date, it would be near impossible to replicate the production of these pyramids. The HR planning scale of the project would be among the biggest challenges to face. Archaeologists have their own methods for determining how many workers (mostly slaves) were employed at Giza, but a majority agree that the Great Pyramid was built by approximately 4,000 primary labourers—quarry workers, haulers, and masons. These primary labourers would have been supported by 16,000 to 20,000 secondary workers—ramp builders, tool-makers, mortar mixers, and those providing back-up services such as supplying food, clothing, and fuel. These estimates suggest...
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...HR Plan-08s The HR Planning Process I. HR Forecasting: Meaning II. Forecasting Activity Categories III. HR Forecasting Time Horizons IV. Determining Net HR Requirements I. HR Forecasting: Meaning HR forecasting constitutes the heart of the HR planning process. It can be defined as ascertaining the net requirement for personnel by determining the demand for and supply of human resources now and in the future. After determining the demand for and supply of workers, the organization's HR staff develop specific programs to reconcile the differences between the requirement for labour in various employment categories and its availability, both internally and in the organization's environment. Programs in such areas as training and development, career planning, recruitment and selection, managerial appraisal, and so on are all stimulated by means of the HR forecasting process. II. Forecasting Activity Categories Forecasting activity can be subdivided into three categories: • transaction-based forecasting, • event-based forecasting, and • process-based forecasting. # Transaction-based forecasting analyses focus on tracking internal change instituted by the organization's managers. # Event-based forecasting is concerned with change in the external environment. # Process-based forecasting is not focused on a specific internal organizational event but on the flow or sequencing of several work activities (e.g., the warehousing shipping process)...
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...capabilities which would prevent successful implementation Perspective of Human Resource Planning * MACRO HRP * Assessing & forecasting demand for & availability of skills at national / global level * Predict the kinds of skills that will be required in future & compare these with what is / will be available in the country * MICRO HRP * Process of forecasting demand for & supply of HR for specific organization * HRP Process - Determination of Quantity of Personnel Organisational Objectives HR Programming HR Needs Forecast HR Supply Forecast HRP Implementation Control & Evaluation Surplus - Restricted Hiring, Lay Off, VRS, Reduced Hours Shortage - Recruitment & Selection * Organizational Objectives & Policies involves: * Downsizing / Expansion * Acquisition / Merger / Sell-out * Technology upgrade/ Automation * New Markets & New Products * External Vs Internal hiring * Training & Re-training * Union Constraints * HR Need Forecast Process of estimating future quantity and quality of manpower required for an organization. * HR need forecasting involves: 1. How many people need to be working and in what jobs to implement organizational strategies and attain organizational objectives. 2. Involves forecasting HR needs based on organizational...
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...Define and explain the significance of the term ‘derived demand’ as it applies to Strategic Human Resources Planning. (5 marks) Derived demand is defined as a requirement for one product that is created due to the purchase of another product. It occurs for consumers who purchase goods for further production, because their purchases are based on the demand for their final product.[1] For example, when the demand for automobiles is high, the derived demand for steel, and all other products used to make automobiles, is also high. Should the demand for automobiles drop, so will the demand for the products used to make the automobiles. Derived demand applies particularly to strategic human resources planning in relation to labour. Demand and supply of labour interact to determine the wages and affects the allocation of labour resources in ta corporation. It involves anticipating both the need for labor and the labor supply while planning programs necessary to ensure the organization will have the right mix of employees. The demand for labour is derived form the demand for the goods and services that labour is used to produce. Additionally the demand for labour is influenced by the level of economic activity, the productivity of labour and relative cost of labour compared to capital.[2] The demand and supply of labour are influenced by both macroeconomic and microeconomic factors. Macroeconomics refer to conditions in the whole economy affecting the general labour market. Microeconomic...
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...QUESTION TWO (i) Human resources forecasting involves projecting labor needs and the effects they’ll have on a business. Human Resource department forecasts both short and long term staffing needs based on projected sales, office growth, attrition and other factors that affect a company’s need for labor. Potential human resource requirement is to be estimated keeping in view of the organisation's plans over a given period of time. It involves estimating the future human resource requirement of right quality and right number. Human Resource Forecasting provides Various benefits to the organisation like; * Production and Scheduling Human resource forecasting plans for labor needs change as sales rise and fall. For that human resources manager should keep in close touch with sales manager to be aware of any spikes or declines in sales that affect labor needs. This prevents falling behind on order fulfillment or paying idle workers. A simple example of labor forecasting is a restaurant that has nights with many bookings and large parties and other nights when few diners make reservations. The manager forecasts the restaurant’s wait staff, bar and kitchen needs. * Succession Human resources forecasting helps to avoid long-term holes in staffing needs by keeping on top example employees might be retiring, leaving or asked to leave. Using that information, Human Resource managers plans to fill holes with internal staff or prepares for a quick recruiting effort. * Budgeting...
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...country. The textile firms mainly export the rudiments garments product. Every day, this industry is fulfilling huge number of foreign demands. To fulfill a large number of product demands from abroad, it is very crucial for those firms to use their manpower effectively and efficiently. Beside this now in our country there is huge problem is to control the garments workers. Therefore, those firms make sure that they have a structured HR department. The TEXISLAND is one of those business organizations. For a long period of time, they are concentrating to meet their business goal through their employees and they are doing it successfully through their structured HR department. 1 CHAPTER 1 BACKGROUND 0F THE REPORT 2 Background of the Report 1.1 Objective of the study: i) Primary objective: The primary objective of the report is to analyze Textile industries HR functions in the light of Manpower planning and forecasting. Here, we will explore the overall staffing activities of the TEXILAND. ii) Secondary Objective: The secondary objective of this report is to know about the actual scenario of the HR practice in the Textile industries of our country. It will help us to compare our theoretical knowledge with the real HR practices. How are job objectives/standards set by the company Various job analysis process and role of HR activities that the company is using and reasons for that How do the companies ensure a fair and equitable evaluation Methods of internal...
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...Human Resource Planning (3rd Class) Definition: The ongoing process of systematic planning to achieve optimum use of an organization's most valuable asset - its human resources. The objective of human resource (HR) planning is to ensure the best fit between employees and jobs, while avoiding manpower shortages or surpluses. The three key elements of the HR planning process are forecasting labor demand, analyzing present labor supply, and balancing projected labor demand and supply. Rigorous HR planning links people management to the organization's mission, vision, goals and objectives, as well as its strategic plan and budgetary resources. A key goal of HR planning is to get the right number of people with the right skills, experience and competencies in the right jobs at the right time at the right cost. The process by which management ensures that it has the right personnel, who are capable of completing those tasks that help the organization reach its objectives. [pic] Meaning and Definition: In simple words, HRP is understood as the process of forecasting an organization's future demand for and supply of, the right type of people in the right number. It is only after this that the HRM department can initiate the recruitment and selection process. HRP is a sub-system in the total organizational planning. Organizational planning includes managerial activities that set the company's objectives for the future and determine the appropriate means for achieving...
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...Features: Define HR Planning and its crucial(Very serious) relationship with strategic organizational planning. Examine the nature and role of HRM info system(HRMIS) in HRP and SHRM Develop an understanding of the techniques of HRP and advantages/disadvantages of HRP process I.HRP and SHRM HRP is the bridge between HRS and HR Function(Activity).It’s the process through which the Organisational Goals are translated into HR goals in staff-ing levels and allocation HRP ensures the org have the right people with right skill in right place at the right time. HRP guides the long-term resourcing of people in org-the acquisition(capture),use and development of Human capital and knowledge assets Workfoce Planning(HRP)=>Preparing to recruit=>Attracting Staff=>Recruiting and selecting staff=>Developing and retaining staff. Step:Environmental Scanning(External and internal)=>Labour Demand Forecasting=>Labour supply analysis=>Balancing demand and supply Emphasied the need to diagnose(discover) the real reasons for mismatches in supply/demand Using a mix of qualitative and quantitative techniques It Involves: Forecasting labour requirement for an org Predicting likely(will happen) sources Environmental Scanning Development of Objective and Goals Formulating the necessary steps to meet needs Evaluation(Judgement) of the planning process The HR Planner should: 1st Analyzing Environmental Factors and Organization Direction=>Forecasting Demand Analyzing...
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...HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING The nature of HR planning • Hard dimension – quantitative analysis of employment issues. Soft dimension – creating and shaping the culture – which looks at integrating corporate culture and; employee belief and behavior (Marchington and Wilkinson, 1996) The aims of HR planning Aim is basically to obtain and retain the people in terms of quantity and quality by: • Anticipating problems • Developing a well training and flexible workforce • Acquiring the capability to reduce the organizations dependence on external recruitment The stages of HR planning CORPORATE PLAN HR Plan Demand Supply Internal Auditing Forecasting Forecasting External Auditing Labour Surplus Or Labour Deficit Action Plan Evaluation Analysing utilization • Manpower inventory • Due to pressure of reducing cost, improving quality, measuring/analyzing & improving performance, innovative job design and reward system Forecasting demand • Involves reviewing and estimating HR requirements in terms of quantity and type of employees by referring to corporate plans, forecasting output requirements and projected productivity changes. • Staffing required both for short-term and long term operational...
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...Resource Planning? According to Brighthub.com, “Human Resource Planning” is a systematic analysis of HR needs to ensure the availability of the correct number of employees with the necessary skills at the right time. The increased competitive nature of business that makes workforce flexibility an imperative need has raised the importance of human resource planning. Effective Human Resource planning entitles five main steps. These steps include: 1. Demand Forecasting 2. Supply Forecasting 3. Audit 4. Reconciliation Or Affecting A Demand-Supply Fit 5. Control. Demand Forecasting This is a process of determining future needs for Human Resource in terms of quantity and quality. It is done to meet the future personnel requirements of the organization to achieve the desired level of output. Demand Forecasting requires a good understanding of the internal and external environment of the enterprise. Short-term and long-term organizational plans and strategies are the major aspects of the internal environment that affect HR Planning, while on the other hand, the general status of the economy, developments in technology, level of competition, labor market trends and regulations, demographic trends are the major aspects of an enterprise’s external environment that impacts HR planning. There are two main methods of forecasting. These include: Delphi technique/ managerial estimates, and various mathematical models. * An example of various mathematical models...
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...Abstract In this case study, Apple has decided to bring their design of microchips back in-house and no longer use an outsourcing firm to design and create the product. It would like to keep their newly developed designs confidential to create a competitive advantage. Due to this strategic decision, Apple’s human resource department will need to come up with a talent acquisition strategy. First, the HR department will need to come up with a recruiting strategy based on forecasting and HR planning. This research paper will first discuss the approaches to recruiting that might be best suited for Apple’s talent acquisition. It will also discuss the traits and behaviors an effective recruiter will need in order to accomplish the organization’s recruiting strategy and goals. Apple will need to determine the best way to effectively plan for this talent acquisition. Based on cost, three suggestions will be made for Apple to accomplish this goal. This research paper will conclude with discussing the benefits of HR forecasting and why it is a necessary step in HR planning. 1. Based on the information given but in your own words, explain what approaches to recruiting might be best suited for Apple’s talent Acquisition. Apple is recruiting engineers and other personnel to work on developing microchips in-house instead of outsourcing the process. Apple feels as if secrecy of their developing product is more important than efficiency of production. Therefore, they are conducting...
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...PPT * What is forecasting? Eg * Need for HRf? * Type of forecasting techniques * RTM, Eg * Relation with methods * Popularity * Usage * Steps involved for calculating (Theory) * Eg (practical) What is Forecasting? * Process of estimating the future requirement of human resources of right quality and right quantity on the basis of past information. * The estimation is subject to error. * HR forecasting done over three planning periods: short range, intermediate range and long range. * Main emphasis of HR forecasting: HR demand & HR supply * Example Year | Sales (In Millions) | FY 93 | 0.75 | FY 94 | 1.55 | FY 95 | 2.35 | FY 96 | 2.22 | FY 97 | 2.38 | FY 98 | 2.54 | FY 99 | 2.37 | FY 00 | 2.55 | FY 01 | 2.67 | FY 02 | 2.89 | FY 03 | 3.11 | FY 04 | 2.94 | FY 05 | 2.81 | FY 06 | 2.72 | FY 07 | 3.01 | FY 08 | 3.35 | FY 09 | 3.42 | FY 10 | 3.51 | FY 11 | 3.62 | Types of Forecasting Techniques: Qualitative: Delphi Method, Market Research, Product Life Cycle Analogy, and Expert Judgment Quantitative: * Time Series: Average, Trend, Seasonal Influence, Cyclical Movement, Random Error, Exponential Smoothing Method, Multiplicative Seasonal Method, * Casual Forecasting: Regression Analysis, Econometric Models, Input-Output Models, Simulation Modelling What is ratio Trend Analysis? Quickest forecasting technique Involves studying past ratios and forecasting future ratio Example:...
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...Staffing Forecasting and Planning (Book Review) ORGS 6200 MANAGING HUMAN RESOURCES Synopses: J Phillips and S Gully start this well researched and practical book by stressing the importance of workforce planning through recognizing the value of strategic staffing on the company’s ability to improve its capabilities and survive any economic environment while reducing its labor related costs as well as many other expenses indirectly associated with its employees. It is further stressed that talent and its acquisition are to be treated as investments not costs of doing business. It is argued that a single most important factor in order to ensure an organization’s strategic goals are met, is its ability to hire the right people at the right time in order to enhance the firm’s return on its investment. The authors then further expand on this theory by defining a set of common goals for staffing forecasting and planning activities that can benefit any company in any industry and economic life cycle. In addition, the book discusses the importance of understanding a company’s strategy, goals and competition in order to identify what type of talents will the firm need and when. “Ensuring that the right people are in the place at the right time, requires understanding and forecasting the firm’s labor demand and maintaining an awareness of relevant pipelines of labor supply and talent. Action plans can then be developed to address any gaps between labor supply...
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...Report Body Objectives: Broad Objective: The main objective of the report is to know about the whole organization including its whole HR activities, its each and every part of HR planning, Job Analysis, Recruitment and Selection process and forecasting. Specific Objective: • To find how this company maintains its HR activities. • To know about the methods how this company collects the information for job analysis and what are the methods it follows for conducting job analysis. • To know what are the major elements of recruitment and selections process and how these processes are conducted. • To know how this company forecasts its employee needs. Scope: This report is about the whole HR activities of Robi Axiata Ltd. The mixture of practical and theoretical portions about the HR strategy, Job analysis, Recruitment and Selection process and demand supply forecasting are discussed here. This report gives a broad idea about the methods and techniques used in HR planning. Moreover how this company improves and cope up with the change of the external environment are also presented. Methodology: Primary Sources: The primary source of collecting data for making this report was taking a face to face interview of an HR official. We took a list of questions and got answers by asking him directly. Secondary Sources: The secondary sources of information collection were different websites, magazines, journals, books and other relevant sources...
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...amongst economists around forecasting the demand for and supply of labour. The lack of evidence of its usefulness (Rothwell 1995 cited in Storey 2007), problems with its application and the complexity of predicting the labour market has led many to take the view that forecasting is neither useful nor necessary (Taylor 2010). Forecasting is a key aspect of Human Resource Planning (HRP); which can be a complex process especially during periods of economic uncertainty and fluctuation. This intensifies the pressures between the need for planning and the difficulties of prediction. Nevertheless, the fundamental purpose is simple: HRP is concerned with assessing and meeting an organisation’s current and future workforce needs. This ensures the right number of people with the appropriate skills and competencies are in the right jobs at the right time and at the right cost so as to achieve organisational objectives (Foot and Hook 2005). In presenting a balanced view, this essay will analyse the argument for and against HRP in determining if it is unfeasible for organisations to accurately forecast the demand for and supply of labour. Furthermore, how HRP can inform other Human Resource (HR) activities such as recruitment and selection (R&S), succession planning, performance management and training and development amongst others. Specific reference where appropriate will be demonstrated to showcase links between theoretical and practical context. Forecasting as a key element of HRP ...
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