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Fiscal Policy and Social Security Policy During the 1990s

Douglas W. Elmendorf Federal Reserve Board Jeffrey B. Liebman Harvard University and NBER David W. Wilcox Federal Reserve Board

Revised July 2001

This paper was presented at a conference on “American Economic Policy in the 1990s” held June 27 to 30, 2001 at the John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and are not necessarily shared by any of the institutions with which they are affiliated. We thank Al Davis, Peter Diamond, Edward Gramlich, Peter Orszag, Gene Sperling, and Lawrence Summers for comments on an earlier draft. Elmendorf was formerly Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Office of Economic Policy, and prior to that Senior Economist at the Council of Economic Advisers; Liebman was formerly Special Assistant to the President for Economic Policy at the National Economic Council; and Wilcox was formerly Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy.

Table of Contents Page 1. Introduction 2. Budget Outcomes and Projections Improved Budget Picture Sources of Improvement 3. Budget Deficit Reduction: 1990 through 1997 OBRA90 OBRA93 What Did Deficit Reduction Ultimately Accomplish? The Republican-Controlled Congress BBA97 4. Entitlement Reform and Saving Social Security First Entitlement Commissions Social Security Saving Social Security First 5. Social Security Reform Options Using Projected Budget Surpluses as Part of Social Security Reform Investments in Private Financial Assets Potential Compromise Reform Proposals The 1999 State of the Union Social Security Proposal 6. Budget Surpluses: 1998 through 2000 The 1999 State of the Union Budget Framework Balancing the Budget Excluding Social Security Fiscal Policy in 2000 A National Asset 7. Conclusion References Tables Figures 1 3

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