Premium Essay

Is the Current Fed Funds Rate Too Low?

In:

Submitted By dlcuthbert
Words 668
Pages 3
We obtained data on the inflation rates from 1955-2010 then applied the Taylor Rule which is a formula we learned in class that “predicts” the target fed fund rates as iFed=rFed + π where rFed=2%+ 0.5(π - 2%) (π: inflation rate). Note that extended versions have unemployment rate or GDP growth rate and in our model we do not include this.
We then obtained the actual federal funds rate from the website below: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data.htm
We then made a graph showing the time series of the actual and predicted(targeted) federal funds rate.
Using this data we can now answer the question “Is the current federal funds rate too high or too low?”
If the target federal funds rate is lower than the actual federal funds rate this makes it easier for commercial banks to borrow money which in turn increases the money stock supply. As you can see from the graph and table above that the federal funds rate is in fact lower than the predicted or targeted federal funds rate. If it was only slightly smaller it wouldn’t be such a big issue but it is 2.08% lower than the targeted federal funds rate. This leads to inflation because there is an increase in the money stock and there is too much money in the economy which leads to people charging more money for their goods and services. It also increases the demand for all assets in general. However, the government could be doing this to help boost the economy, and try and lower the unemployment rates. When the government increases the excess reserves it lowers the interest rates and increases investments which can increase GDP and help lower unemployment. A decline in the fed funds rate can stimulate the economy but too much of a decline can lead to excessive growth and can cause inflation pressures. A rise in the rate would cause the money supply to shrink and interest rates to rise which would slow down the

Similar Documents

Premium Essay

Federal Reserve Presentation

...going to discuss Discount Rates set by the Federal Reserve and how this affects the supply of money and decisions made by banks on borrowing. I will explain the Monetary Policy used by the Fed to control the supply of money and how these aim to avoid inflation. I will explain how the infusion of stimulus programs affects the supply of money. I will also describe the current indicators that show there is too little or too much money in the economy today and what steps are being taken to correct this. The current state of the economy and the demand for money are factors that influence the Federal Reserve to adjust the discount rate. Banks request additional money when their reserves get low. Changes in real estate become a factor when homeowners are unable to pay their mortgages and banks lose money. The Federal Reserve decreased interest rates for the real estate market, which made it less expensive for banks to borrow funds. “A change in the credit supply and demand influenced the Federal Reserve to increase the discount rate, discouraging banks from requesting money by making it more expensive for banks to borrow funds, (Colander, 2010)”. The Feds use the spread between the Discount Rate and the Federal Funds Rate to increase or decrease the supply of money. If the Discount Rate is lower than the Federal Funds Rate, banks will borrow from other bank which does not increase the supply of money. When the Federal Funds Rate is lower than the Discount Rate, banks will borrow from...

Words: 934 - Pages: 4

Premium Essay

Lehman Brothers

...Monetary Policy and the Federal Reserve: Current Policy and Conditions Marc Labonte Specialist in Macroeconomic Policy February 9, 2015 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov RL30354 Monetary Policy and the Federal Reserve: Current Policy and Conditions Summary The Federal Reserve (the Fed) defines monetary policy as its actions to influence the availability and cost of money and credit. Because the expectations of market participants play an important role in determining prices and economic growth, monetary policy can also be defined to include the directives, policies, statements, and actions of the Fed that influence future perceptions. Traditionally, the Fed has implemented monetary policy primarily through open market operations involving the purchase and sale of U.S. Treasury securities. The Fed traditionally conducts open market operations by setting a target for the federal funds rate, the rate at which banks borrow and lend reserves on an overnight basis. Beginning in September 2007, in a series of 10 moves, the federal funds target was reduced from 5.25% to a range of 0% to 0.25% on December 16, 2008, where it has remained since. With the federal funds target at this zero lower bound, the Fed attempted to provide additional stimulus through unconventional policies. It provided forward guidance on its expectations for future rates, announcing that it “anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic...

Words: 14323 - Pages: 58

Free Essay

The Current Financial Environment

...The Current Financial Environment FIS/260-Financial Markets & Institutions: You Can Bank On It Michael Ricks When I first took a look at this assignment I thought it would be easier than it this. I looked for days on the internet trying to find banks or depositories with credit cards with variable interest rates. What I found was many banks with many credits all with annual percentage rates (APR). So to keep my insanity I just looked at three commercial banks. I looked at Bank of America, US Bank, and Regions bank. I looked at all their credit cards student, business, rewards, and secured. Bank of America credit cards Apr varied anywhere from 12.99% to 20.99%. Here is how they get people, 0% introductory APR for the first 12 billing cycles only for purchases. When that cycle ends your rate will depend on your creditworthiness. US Bank does similar and their rates are from 11.99% to 23.99%. Regions is in the same neighborhood starting at 13.99%, 16.99%, or 19.99% based on credit, but can quickly climb to 24.99% or even 29.99%. Every bank I researched, including credit unions, all based the rate that you would receive on your creditworthiness when you open your account. After that, your APR will vary with the market based on the Prime Rate as set out in the Variable-Rate information section of your agreement. The current annual percentage rate (APR) for a new car can vary from bank to bank, amount to amount, and year to year. It is not something that is...

Words: 1653 - Pages: 7

Premium Essay

Federal Reserve

...The Federal Reserve’s duties are to maintain the stability of the financial system, supervise and regulate banking institutions, conduct monetary policy and provide financial services to the government, such as operating the nation’s payments system. The establishment of the Federal Reserve System and how it conducts monetary policy, through interest rate variance, reserve requirement, money supply and several other programs, is fundamental to understanding the economy as a whole. The Federal Reserve Act, also known as the Glass-Owen Bill, was passed December 23, 1913 under President Woodrow Wilson (Goodseek.com). The Federal Reserve was born from the National Monetary Commission which proposed that the country needed an institution to deal with a poorly regulated banking system that was responsible for economic downturns (WFHumel.net). The original 1913 bill stated that the original act was “to have succession for a period of twenty years” and yet there have only been minor adjustments to the bill since that time (Goldseek.com). Federal Reserve is comprised of 3 divisions: the Board of Governors (BOG), the Regional Reserve Banks, and The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The BOG guides the Federal Reserve’s policy actions, studies trends in the economy, and helps forecast the economic future, In addition, the BOG also participates in monetary policy-making on the FOMC, and is responsible for bank regulations and overseeing the operations of the Reserve Banks (Goodseek...

Words: 1870 - Pages: 8

Premium Essay

How Does Federal Reserve Control the Money Supply

...the Money Supply? Federal Reserve or simply “the Fed” is an independent entity whose main goal is to provide the nation with a safer, more flexible, and more stable monetary and financial system. It is the central bank of the United States that influences the monetary policy by controlling the money supply and cost of money in able to give the economy full employment, low inflation rate, and stable prices. Manipulating money supply is a very powerful tool use by the Fed to stabilize the economy. So how does the Federal Reserve control the money supply? The Fed uses three different methods to increase or decrease the amount of money supply in the economy. The first method is by conducting open market operations, which affects the federal funds rate. In open-market operations, the Fed buys and sells government securities in the open market. If the Fed wants to increase the money supply, it buys government bonds. This supplies the securities dealers who sell the bonds with cash, increasing the overall money supply. Conversely, if the Fed wants to decrease the money supply, it sells bonds from its account, thus taking in cash and removing money from the economic system. Open-market operations are the most important tool that the Fed can use to influence the money supply. Perfect example was during the recession of 2007 – 2009. The primary tool that the Fed used early during the current crisis was to cut the Federal Funds rate. The Fed initially conducts open market operations by buying...

Words: 650 - Pages: 3

Premium Essay

Inflation Targets

...INFLATION TARGETS A radical central banking policy adopted by New Zealand initially in 1989 that revolves around meeting preset, publicly displayed targets for the annual rate of inflation, is more commonly known as inflation targeting. This policy was adopted later on most notably by countries like Chile, Canada, Israel, Sweden, Finland (Pre- Eurozone), Spain (Pre-Eurozone), Australia, Brazil, Mexico, England and South Africa. The benchmark used for inflation targeting is typically a price index of a basket of consumer goods, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States. Along with inflation target rates and calendar dates to be used as performance measures, an inflation targeting policy may also have established steps that are to be taken depending on how much the actual inflation rate varies from the targeted level, such as cutting lending rates or adding liquidity to the economy. It is arguable that the Federal Reserve is not explicitly following inflation targeting. After all, the Fed stated it was serious about its new 2% inflation target when announced in January 2012: “The inflation rate over the longer run is primarily determined by monetary policy, and hence the Committee has the ability to specify a longer-run goal for inflation. The Committee judges that inflation at the rate of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, is most consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve's statutory...

Words: 1428 - Pages: 6

Premium Essay

Monetary Policy

...In the Oct. 28-29 FOMC meeting, the committee is expected to make decisions on the continuity of its asset repurchase program and the federal funds rate. Fed Chair Yellen should present the fact that in Q3, the economy has continued to grow at 4% rate. And that unemployment rate has dropped to a low 5.9%. These positive signals indicate a healthy economy moving towards maximum employment and price stability. Chair Yellen should first confirm that the current $5 billion asset repurchase program will end by the end of the year. And second, should present the expected economic progress and determine for how long ZIRP will be maintained. It is also important for Chair Yellen to discuss how the Fed is going to protect the economy from future potential recessions especially by discussing these three points: 1. Progress report on the Dodd-Frank act, how to expedite and simply the rulemaking process. 1. TBTF banks are a risk to financial stability. A plan must be put in place to decrease their size so that failure becomes an acceptable option. 2. The Fed should move towards a data-driven organization. Using the Taylor rule to set its federal funds rate will remove any second guessing. 1. What is the current economic situation and how did we get here? Give your policy recommendation with some detail, including ideas on the timing and details of normalizing policy, including exit tools. The U.S. economy is recovering from the deepest recession since the Great Depression...

Words: 1562 - Pages: 7

Premium Essay

Finalmid

...types of financial institutions mentioned in this chapter as either depository or nondepository. Explain the general difference between depository and nondepository institution sources of funds. Depository institutions include commercial banks, savings and loan associations, and credit unions. These institutions differ from nondepository institutions in that they accept deposits. The source of funds: Commercial Banks and Savings Institutions- Deposits from households, businesses, and government agencies. Credit Unions-Deposits from Credit Union members Nondepository institutions include finance companies, mutual funds, insurance companies, pension funds, and Money market funds. Sources of funds: Finance companies sell securities to households and businesses to obtain funds Mutual Funds (Dominant in total assets) –sell shares to households, businesses, and government agencies Insurance companies receive insurance premiums and earning from investments Pension funds receive employee/employer contributions. Money Market funds- sell shares to households, businesses, and government agencies Finance companies use funds to provide direct loans to consumers and businesses. Insurance companies and pension funds...

Words: 1987 - Pages: 8

Premium Essay

Federal Reserve

...Reserve and its board of governors. The “Fed” has had an interesting history within our country since its creation in 1913. It is the central bank of the United States. It is the third such attempt, and the most successful central bank to be formed in America. The creation of the Fed was initially done to stave off financial panics, but the scope and purview of the Fed has grown over time through the enactment of many laws that give the Fed its power. The main focus of the Fed is to regulate, monitor and control the monetary system within the United States. While the Fed has been in existence in the United States it has not been without critics and proponents. Recently the critics have grown in number thanks to the TARP program in 2008 that provided bailout money to companies deemed too big to fail. While this policy is just many in the long history of the Fed, it has brought much attention to this entity that although sanctioned by the government, actually operates independently with exception to bi-annual reports to Congress. Although the Fed has faced many calls of audits and/or accountability, it has done well in the handling of the nation’s monetary policy through a Great Depression, two World Wars, and countless business cycles of boom and bust. Although the system, while not perfect, is a necessity to maintain the functionality of both our nation’s business, both foreign and domestic, and our monetary policy. History of Fed On 23 December 1913, the Owen-Glass Act founded...

Words: 3001 - Pages: 13

Premium Essay

Financial Markets

...Introduction to the Financial Crisis The near-collapse of the financial system in the United States was the most substantial economic crisis in the U.S. since the Great Depression of the 1920s and 1930s. Since the crisis began in late-2007, more than 6 million Americans have lost their jobs, large and important financial institutions have failed, and trillions of dollars in savings and retirement accounts have been lost. It is generally accepted that problems in the United States housing market are at the root of the current United States and global financial crisis. However, even in mid-2009, twelve months after the financial crisis fully erupted in the United States, it is still too early to determine all of the precise causes and consequences of the crisis. Many different entities share the responsibility for creating or enabling the crisis: mortgage lenders, borrowers, regulators, investors, rating agencies, and probably many others. At its broadest level, this crisis was caused by a failure of governance: of political governance by regulators and legislators, of corporate governance by firms and executives, and of personal governance by individuals. After peaking in the United States in 2006, the global housing bubble collapsed. On the national level, home prices in the United States have dropped by almost 40% according to the Case-Schiller Home Price Index from 2006 peak to mid-2009. Securities with risk exposure to housing market plummeted, causing great damage to financial...

Words: 2443 - Pages: 10

Premium Essay

Monetary Policy

...use of the government budget to affect an economy. When the government decides on the taxes that it collects, the transfer payments it gives out, or the goods and services that it purchases, it is engaging in fiscal policy. The primary economic impact of any change in the government budget is felt by particular groups make tax cut for families with children, for example, raises the disposable income of such families. Discussions of fiscal policy, however, usually focus on the effect of changes in the government budget on the overall economy on such macroeconomic variables as GNP and unemployment and inflation. Fiscal Policy also can be explained as the economic term which describes the behavior of governments in raising money to fund current spending and investment for collective social purposes and for transfer payments to citizens and residents of the territory for which the government is responsible. The money may be raised by taxation, by borrowing, by user charges on social assets or services, or by fiat. Fiscal policy can include deficit spending to stimulate demand for domestic goods and services to help unemployment or make efforts to cut deficits or raise the budget surplus to fight inflation. There are many different types of Fiscal Policy. It all depends on the given situations the government is in. A government may adopt certain policies that can either increase or decrease...

Words: 2795 - Pages: 12

Premium Essay

Financial Crisis

...Th Fi ncial Cris he inan sis: 2007 2 7-2009 gar N g A. Norton, Jr. Illin nois Sta Uni ate iversity y Cover page im mage ©2010 Pho otoDisc, Inc. Copyright © 2010 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc W c. All rights rese erved. No part of thi publication ma be reproduced stored in a ret is ay d, trieval system or transmitted r in any form o by any means, electronic, mec or , chanical, photoco opying, recordin scanning ng, or otherwise, except as permi itted under Sections 107 or 108 o the 1976 Unit States of ted Copyright Ac without either the prior writte permission of the Publisher, o authorization t ct, r en f or through payment of th appropriate pe he er-copy fee to th Copyright Cle he earance Center, I Inc., 222 Rosewo Drive, ood Danvers, MA 01923, website www.copyright A e t.com. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be r addressed to t Permissions Department, Joh Wiley & Son Inc., 111 Rive Street, Hobok NJ 07030the hn ns, er ken, 5774, (201)74 48-6011, fax (20 01)748-6008, we ebsite http://www w.wiley.com/go/ /permissions. To order book or for custom service, pleas call 1(800)-CA ks mer se ALL-WILEY (2 225-5945). Printed in the United States of America. e o ISBN 978- 0-470-56516-2 The Financial Crisis: 2007-2009 Objectives Understand the major influences that led to the 2007 2009 Financial Crises Describe the role that agency cost issues played in the financing of mortgages to developing...

Words: 17010 - Pages: 69

Premium Essay

Title

...transfer funds from savers into investments and they transfer title of ownership of existing securities from sellers to buyers. Financial markets and the transfer of savings Two basic methods exist for transferring funds from savers to users. First is direct investment when you start own business and invest your savings in the operation. A direct investment also occurs when securities are initially sold to investors in primary market. In the second markets, no funds are transferred and no new assets are created, there is only the transfer of ownership of an existing asset. The alternative to direct transfer of savings is an indirect transfer through a financial intermediary. You lend funds to the bank; the bank lends the funds to the ultimate borrower. The role of money Money: anything that is generally accepted as a means of payment. Liquidity: Ease of converting an asset into cash without loss, the depth of a financial market. Federal Reserve has the power to control the supply of money and to oversee the commercial banking system. Money supply: Total amount of money in circulation. 2 measures: M1: Sum of coins, currency, and demand deposits (checking account); M2: M1+saving accounts (70%), small certificates of deposits. The role of interest rates Interest is the cost of credit, the price paid for the use of someone else’s money. Generally, the longer the term of the debt and the riskier the debt instruments, the higher will be the interest rate. Financial...

Words: 5018 - Pages: 21

Premium Essay

Effects of Inflation

...Southern New Hampshire University 11/22/2015 Web Reference: ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/cpi/cp and www.federalreserve.gov/releases/H6/Current. These sites respectively report inflation over time and the information on the money supply updated weekly. OUTLINE 1. Statement of Purpose- The effects of inflation on interest rates and investment returns. a. Inflation defined. Presentation of data of average inflation for every decade since the 1950’s b. Discuss which decade had the highest inflation and which had the lowest. 2. Purchasing power and how inflation affects purchasing power a. Purchasing power defined. b. Looking at the basket of goods that determine the Consumer Price Index. Taking a look at what those things cost today versus what they cost in 1979 (my birth year) adjusted for inflation. 3. Inflation’s effects on investment returns and interest rates. a. Adjusted value versus inflation adjusted value. b. What happens to the difference between these two values when; i. Inflation increases ii. The investment horizon lengthens iii. Expected returns increase 4. Measurement of inflation and usual government reactions to inflation. a. Discussing the current CPI level. b. Actions the government takes when inflation is high or low. Conclusion- Restating key research findings on the effects of inflation. Offer insights gained on the effects of inflation and how investor may adjust...

Words: 3083 - Pages: 13

Premium Essay

Stone Container Corp, Inc

...mentioned three policy tools that the Fed can use to manipulate the money supply and interest rates: open market operations, which affect the quantity of reserves and the monetary base; changes in discount lending, which affect the monetary base; and changes in reserve requirements, which affect the money multiplier. Because the Fed’s use of these policy tools has such an important impact on interest rates and economic activity, it is important to understand how the Fed wields them in practice and how relatively useful each tool is. In recent years, the Federal Reserve has increased its focus on the federal funds rate (the interest rate on overnight loans of reserves from one bank to another) as the primary indicator of the stance of monetary policy. Since February 1994, the Fed announces a federal funds rate target at each FOMC meeting, an announcement that is watched closely by market participants because it affects interest rates throughout the economy. Thus, to fully understand how the Fed’s tools are used in the conduct of monetary policy, we must understand not only their effect on the money supply, but their direct effects on the federal funds rate as well. The chapter thus begins with a supply-and-demand analysis of the market for reserves to explain how the Fed’s settings for the three tools of monetary policy determine the federal funds rate. We then go on to look in more detail at each of the three tools—open market operations, discount rate policy, and reserve requirements—to...

Words: 9295 - Pages: 38