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Life's Choices Case Analysis Week #5

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Life's Choices Case Analysis Week #5
Uncertainties and Decision

Uncertainty becomes relevant to a decision problem when it is impossible to know which outcome will occur. This may be due to missing information, or because the outcome depends on other factors. Mark and Annie must have a method of dealing with uncertainty in their decision determine the expected value of potential outcomes. A decision tree is a method of assessing the preferred outcome where multiple sources of uncertainty may exist. As an analysis model that provides a graphical alter¬native to a decision by illustrating conditions and actions in sequence a decision tree can help Mark and Annie with their uncertainties. By looking at the decision to be made, chance or uncertain events and scenario, scenario outcomes, and probability outcomes, Mark and Annie may have an easier time making their choice. Trade-off becomes relevant whenever a decision problem involves multiple, possibly conflicting, objectives. In Mark and Annie's situation more than one objective is relevant. In some cases, an option may also be dominated if it only offers very small advantages but has significant disadvantages. By ranking objectives on a scale, one method of converting rankings to a similar scale is proportional scoring. Using this method, the best outcome is assigned a rating of 100, the worst a rating of 0, and all other outcomes are given a rating based on where they fall between those two scores. If the outcomes are then assigned weights based on their relative importance, a score can be assigned to each outcome and the best alternative assigned using a decision tree. Decision analysis such as this provides an effective technique to determine the expected value of alternative scenarios to Mark and Annie's decision. If an option is equal to or worse than some other option when rated against the

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